Submitting some early Orioles predictions

The countdown to spring training is gaining momentum. The offseason is melting away as the temperature drops, forming a Frosty puddle.

I’m about to get busy, busy, busy.

Mocks and predictions are popular ways to keep fans engaged, with the disclaimer that everything can change with one or two transactions.

The Orioles and their division rivals aren’t done constructing their rosters. I don’t own a crystal ball, but I highly recommend Dan Aykroyd’s Crystal Skull vodka. It's first on my list, but it’s harder to find than a usable Erik Bedard quote.

But I digress …

Here are a dozen early predictions, which might not age well, and a couple topics that I’m avoiding. I have commitment issues.

Predictions:

The Orioles will acquire a starting pitcher but he won’t be on the mound for Opening Day.

I understand that this one could rule out a trade for Dylan Cease or the best from the Marlins and Mariners. I’m basing it on the steep asking prices, which could come down.

Discussions aren’t dead and it’s the first week of January, but rival executives want to pillage the No. 1 farm system in baseball.

Executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias could aim for the middle or backend of the rotation, which he’s willing to do, and give Kyle Bradish the Opening Day assignment if the right-hander earns it in camp.

The rotation consists of the newcomer, Bradish, Grayson Rodriguez, John Means and Dean Kremer.

The second half of this prediction is that Tyler Wells and DL Hall go to the bullpen.

Elias and manager Brandon Hyde weren’t ready at the Winter Meetings to announce roles, indicating that the rest of the offseason had to play out.

Wells and Hall could be stretched out in camp, but I don’t see any room for them in a five-man rotation that includes an acquisition in free agency or via trade.

Colton Cowser begins the season in Triple-A.

I’m basing it on a possible choice between Cowser and Heston Kjerstad, with Ryan McKenna again making the club as a backup at all three outfield positions. And McKenna is out of options.

I’m also assuming that the Orioles hold onto Austin Hays, Cedric Mullins and Anthony Santander.

Cowser will spend most of the summer with the Orioles. I don’t know how the rest shakes out to make it possible, but he has nothing left to prove in Triple-A and a spot must open.

Gunnar Henderson will lead the team in home runs.

Henderson tied Santander for the lead last season with 28 and he’s topping 30 in 2024.

That’s the good news.

Henderson won’t win a Gold Glove.

Hyde will keep bouncing Henderson between shortstop and third base, and the lack of a full-time position will deny the young infielder of the award.

He’d be a worthy recipient in the utility category, but playing only two positions hurts him. The Astros’ Mauricio Dubón won it in 2023, and he did everything except catch and pitch.

Henderson is a gifted fielder. It’s just circumstances.

Henderson will reach double digits in triples.

Henderson finished with nine last season to lead the club.

What's one more?

Adley Rutschman won't go 5-for-5 with a home run on Opening Day.

I mean, come on.

Coby Mayo will create a huge buzz in camp.

Mayo is going to crush baseballs, making him a spring training standout, and he'll have fans eager to witness his major league debut later in the summer. They’re also going to keep asking where he plays.

Arrive early for batting practice.

Cedric Mullins will be healthier and better.

Mullins will get his legs back underneath him. He won't make two stops on the injured list. He'll play in more than 116 games.

And he's certainly going to improve on his .233/.305/.416 line and 19 stolen bases.

The Orioles will experience some regression …

They might not win 101 or more games again and they might not post the best record in the American League.

… but they’re making the playoffs.

They could win the division or enter as a wild card. Doesn't really matter as long as they're rolling the dice in October.

The Yankees and Red Sox were way down in 2023 and the Blue Jays disappointed after appearing to be the best team in the division. The Rays were battered by injuries and lost Wander Franco, probably for good. The Orioles could win it again, but you can't just assume that it's happening.

I'm much more confident that they'll be in the postseason again.

Oh heck, while's we're at it ...

The Orioles won't get swept in their first playoff round.

Maybe it's because they won't have a five-day break or they will handle it better.

The starting pitching will be much better. That's going to be the key.

Not ready:

* Ask me before the Winter Meetings if Jackson Holliday makes the club in spring training and I say it’s less than 50-50. Now, I’m at 50-50.

I’ll concede that his performance in spring training probably tilts the odds. He isn’t guaranteed a spot and he isn't just passing through on his way to Twin Lakes Park. Let's see how the kid performs. But I’m not prepared to run with Elias’ “definitely a very strong possibility” proclamation at the Winter Meetings.

* I think it makes sense to carry the glove-gifted Joey Ortiz as a utility player, but I'm not ready to say that he replaces Jorge Mateo or Ramon Urías on the Opening Day roster.

* Don’t ask for any predictions about the World Series. It might depend on a deadline trade. It could depend on what other teams do with their rosters. Injuries also can be a factor.

But the dice are rolling.