WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. – While Wednesday’s news about Stephen Strasburg – he’s been shut down again after experiencing another setback in his latest attempt to return from thoracic outlet surgery – proved to be the biggest headline on Day 1 of Nationals spring training, truthfully, the bigger story was the presence of three other pitchers stationed along one wall of the home clubhouse.

Much as they hope Strasburg can still have a positive impact for this club, the Nats already have transitioned to building the next generation of their rotation on the broad shoulders of three young starters: MacKenzie Gore, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray.

Strasburg may not be healthy at the moment, but those other three guys are. And that probably has more significance to the franchise’s long-term well-being than anything.

“Starting pitching is very important if you want to compete in the big leagues and have a good team,” Gore said. “The starters need to … good teams have good starting pitching. There’s a responsibility that we have a job to do. I think that’s probably the best way to put it.”

There’s a responsibility, and there’s also a certain amount of pressure on Gore, Cavalli and Gray to live up to their billing. The Nationals’ chances of kicking their rebuild into serious gear rest in large part on the development of those three into frontline, big-league starters.

We’ve reached the final countdown to spring training, so we’re counting down the biggest storylines facing the Nationals this spring in West Palm Beach. We continue today with a look at a rotation that is counting on the healthy return of multiple starters …

If the Nationals are going to show significant improvement in 2023, if this franchise is going to take a big step forward in its rebuilding process this year, it is almost certainly going to coincide with a major turnaround from what was the majors’ worst rotation in 2022.

What used to be the organization’s unquestioned strength was its unquestioned No. 1 weakness last season. The rotation finished with an abysmal 5.97 ERA, an abysmal 30-86 record and a 1.563 WHIP that was the worst mark by any major league rotation since the 2012 Rockies.

How could the situation improve this season? The best hope comes in the form of two young potential building blocks with all the ability in the world but little track record, at least while wearing a Nationals uniform.

Cade Cavalli made one start for the Nats last year. MacKenzie Gore made none. That won’t be the case this year. If it is, the franchise is in serious trouble.

As the start of spring training gets closer and closer – pitchers and catchers report to West Palm Beach in a mere nine days! – we’re looking at how unpredictable the upcoming season could be for each member of the Nationals’ potential roster on an individual basis.

With few established players that look like sure things entering the year, there’s a wide variance of possibilities in each case. We looked at the nine likely members of the lineup Friday. Today, we look at the pitchers most likely to be in the mix for spots on the Opening Day roster.

Here’s the best-case and worst-case scenario for the 2023 season for each of them …

MACKENZIE GORE
Best case: His elbow back to full health, the lefty picks up where he left off during the first half of last season in San Diego. Over 30 starts, he maintains an ERA around 3.00, striking out more than one batter per inning and establishing himself as the young leader of this rotation moving forward.
Worst case: A return of elbow discomfort would really be worst-case, but even if his arm feels fine there’s still a fear of diminished velocity and stamina. A fastball in the low 90s, combined with less-than-ideal command, could leave the Nationals questioning if he really will live up to his billing long-term.

CADE CAVALLI
Best case: Fresh off a restful winter, with his major league debut already behind him, Cavalli proves he’s ready to stick in the big league for the long haul. The Nats are still careful with his workload, limiting him to 26 starts or 140 innings, but he makes the most of those outings with a sub-3.50 ERA and more than 150 strikeouts.
Worst case: Even with a mid-to-upper 90s fastball, if he doesn’t maintain precise command, big league hitters will have success off that pitch. His secondary stuff helps bail him out sometimes, but a high WHIP leaves him looking like something less than a frontline starter.

The Nationals were bad last year, but you already know that. They want to be better this year, and you probably do, too.

But will they be better? That’s what we’re attempting to predict the last two days.

Though there’s still a month to go until spring training, and more additions or subtractions are possible, the Nats have already assembled what looks like it could be their Opening Day roster. So it’s not too early for this exercise.

We looked at position players yesterday, running through each of the positions (included designated hitter). Today, we look at the pitching staff, running through each slot in the rotation, plus multiple bullpen roles. Will the 2023 Nationals be better, worse or the same as the 2022 Nationals? Here we go …

NO. 1 STARTER: Slightly better, you have to hope
Who was the Nationals’ No. 1 starter last year? Patrick Corbin started Opening Day and threw the most innings. Josiah Gray led the staff in wins and strikeouts. Aníbal Sánchez (?!) led the starters in WAR. Point is, they don’t have a No. 1 guy, not yet. So for these purposes, we’ll go with Corbin and just look at how he may fare in 2023 vs. 2022. Enough has been said and written about the left-hander, who has steadily devolved over the last three seasons into the worst starter in baseball. He’s not going anywhere, not with two years still left on his contract. So, can he be better than 6-19 with a 6.31 ERA and 1.697 WHIP? You sure hope so, don’t you? Nobody’s going to suggest he can return to his elite 2019 form anymore. But it is fair to think he could become somewhat more respectable, and the main reason for that would be better defense behind him. His 4.83 FIP last season suggests he wasn’t solely to blame for his wretched numbers. Let’s see if an entire year of CJ Abrams at shortstop might actually bring Corbin’s ERA down under 5.00, which would have to be considered a major win.

Once the shock of the trade wore off – and, yes, it was shocking, given the magnitude of last August’s deal – MacKenzie Gore’s focus shifted to one clear-cut objective: Pitch for the Nationals in 2022.

A resident of the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation when he was one of six players shipped by the Padres to the Nationals for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, Gore knew he was going to need some time to rehab and build his arm back up. But he believed he’d be ready to make his Nats debut before season’s end.

When it didn’t happen, there were conflicting emotions.

“Yeah, I wanted to pitch,” Gore said this week in an interview for the "Nationals Hot Stove Show" on MASN. “I wasn’t throwing when I got traded, so I wanted to get back out there. That’s the best way to get to know guys. But I also understood we needed to be smart. I needed to be smart. I knew why I got to where I was, so I understood.”

Gore’s rehab wasn’t a failure, by any stretch. He made four September rehab starts for Triple-A Rochester and had no issues with his elbow along the way. But he did feel fatigued in his final outing, one in which he served up three homers in 3 2/3 innings.

The Nationals’ offseason moves to date have been, well, less than inspired.

They signed Jeimer Candelario for one year and $5 million, then Trevor Williams for two years and $13 million. They acquired, via the Rule 5 draft and the waiver wire, unproven players named Thad Ward, Stone Garrett and A.J. Alexy. They brought back sentimental favorites Sean Doolittle and Matt Adams on minor league deals. And they’re now on the verge of bringing back Erasmo Ramirez for one year and perhaps as much as $2 million if he hits all his incentives.

Not exactly a rousing Hot Stove League to date. Certainly not compared to the rest of the National League East, which has seen the Mets, Phillies and Braves continue to bolster what already were playoff rosters with even more talent and even more dollars devoted to payroll.

It’s frustrating, for fans and team employees alike who were hoping for a bit more financial commitment from ownership on the heels of a 107-loss season.

Are the 2023 Nationals as currently constructed any better than the 2022 Nationals were? It sure doesn’t look like it on paper. They might even be worse, hard as that is to believe.

Though there’s been a bit of movement on the free agent market elsewhere, we’re still in the preliminary stages of the offseason around here. The Nationals have yet to add anybody to the fold, focusing instead on which players to add to their 40-man roster and which players to remove from the equation.

But now that they’ve completed those tasks, it’s fair to wonder when they’ll start moving onto free agency and addressing a handful of significant needs. (It’s also fair to wonder if they’ll be able to address any of those needs while the club is still for sale, but we’ve already raised that question and there’s not much more to say about that for now.)

So let’s proceed as if Mark Lerner has given Mike Rizzo the green light to spend some money this winter. Not gobs of money, but enough money to fill roster holes with actual free agents, not just bargain-basement pickups.

The Nationals have multiple needs. We’ll focus today on a particularly important one: starting pitching.

The 2022 rotation ranked dead-last in the majors in ERA (5.97) by a longshot, last in WHIP (1.563), last in walks per nine innings (3.76), last in strikeouts per walk (1.97), last in homers allowed (161). It’s hard to believe they finished with the majors’ worst record as well, isn’t it?

PLAYER REVIEW: MACKENZIE GORE

Age on opening day 2023: 24

How acquired: Traded from Padres with CJ Abrams, Luke Voit, Robert Hassell III, James Wood and Jarlin Susana for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, August 2022

MLB service time: 1 year

2022 salary: $700,000

NEW YORK – There is no way to sugarcoat a 55-107 season, no silver lining to setting a club record for losses, no justifying the worst record in baseball.

This was, undoubtedly, the worst of the Nationals’ 18 seasons since they arrived in the District in 2005. They lost more games than the awful 2008-09 teams. The rotation’s 5.97 ERA was far worse than the dreadful 2006 (5.37) or 2020 (5.38) starters’ numbers. Their 17-59 record and .224 winning percentage against the National League East was not only the worst in club history, it was the worst in major league history since divisional play began in 1969.

Oh, and they also traded away a 22-year-old generational star, not because they didn’t want him, but because they believed it was the only way they could restock a farm system that was barren because of their own inability to draft and develop future big leaguers over much of the last decade.

How could the Nationals try to claim the 2022 season was successful? They can’t.

What they can do, and what they are trying to do, is believe this rock-bottom season was a necessary step toward something better in the future. That by losing to this extent now and refocusing efforts on rebuilding that barren farm system, they will be in a better position to win again sooner than they would be if they didn’t take this drastic step backward.

The Nationals have decided not to give MacKenzie Gore a start before season’s end, not wanting to push the left-hander to come off the injured list given the shaky weekend forecast and his stamina issues during a lengthy minor league rehab stint.

Gore, who was acquired from the Padres while on the 15-day IL with left elbow inflammation, had been building himself back up with the intention of making one or two big league starts before the season ends. And after throwing 72 pitches over 3 2/3 innings Monday in his fourth rehab outing for Triple-A Rochester, he expressed optimism he’d make a start against the Phillies this weekend, even if he was limited to three or four innings.

But after conversations with manager Davey Martinez and general manager Mike Rizzo, Gore was told his season would end now, with an offseason plan implemented to help him build up more strength and stamina heading into spring training.

“For me, that’s good enough,” Martinez said. “When we started this and started your rehab stuff, that’s the point we wanted to get to. For me, if it was something different – if we didn’t have enough pitchers, or whatever, which we do – it would be a different conversation. But I don’t want to push it. I think we’re in a good spot right now.”

Gore had totaled 70 big league innings for the Padres before going on the IL in late July, going 4-4 with a 4.50 ERA, 1.472 WHIP and 72 strikeouts, those numbers turning worse as he was beginning to deal with his elbow issue. He was highly motivated to come back and pitch for the Nationals, but the organization doesn’t feel like he needs to prove anything to them.

MacKenzie Gore was back in the clubhouse at Nationals Park this afternoon, back from his fourth rehab start with Triple-A Rochester, fully acknowledging the outcome from his most recent start (six runs, six hits, three homers allowed in 3 2/3 innings) didn’t look great on paper.

“It’s tough. You look at the line last night, it looks like a bad outing,” the left-hander said. “But it’s really just the fourth that was bad.”

Indeed, a closer examination of Gore’s start against Worcester confirms all his troubles came in his final inning of work. When he walked off the mound at the end of the third, he had allowed only one of the 10 batters he had faced to that point to reach (a leadoff homer in the second). He had three strikeouts. He threw 27 of 39 pitches for strikes.

The fourth inning, though, was a mess for Gore. He issued his lone walk of the night. He gave up five extra-base hits, two of them homers. He threw only 18 of 33 pitches for strikes. And he was pulled before completing the inning, his total pitch count up to 72.

“I feel fine. I just haven’t built up as quickly as I thought I would,” he said. “The first three innings were good. The fourth, I just kind of ran out of gas.”

MIAMI – Despite plenty of consideration over the last few weeks, the Nationals will not shut Josiah Gray down yet, giving the right-hander at least one more start this season.

Gray will pitch Wednesday against the Braves in D.C., the club decided today.

That decision was made both with consideration about the state of Gray’s arm at the end of his first full big league season, as well as the uncertain status of Patrick Corbin, who had to depart his last start in Atlanta after tweaking his back and will miss at least one turn through the rotation as a result.

“One, he’s still strong. He’s still throwing the ball well,” manager Davey Martinez said of Gray. “And two, we don’t know what’s going to happen with Corbin yet. But I like the way he threw the ball (Friday). The big thing is, he threw a lot more changeups; we want to continue to see him develop his changeup. So we’re going to give him another start and go from there.”

Gray had some encouraging moments during Friday night’s loss to the Marlins, in which he went six innings and began to rely more on his emerging sinker and changeup in addition to his slider and curveball, while throwing fewer four-seam fastballs. A potential quality start, though, fell apart during a three-run bottom of the sixth that left the 24-year-old upset at himself afterward.

MIAMI – There are 12 games remaining on the Nationals’ schedule, 12 games that need to be played in 12 days (with one off-day still on tap but a day-night doubleheader also on the slate). Which means Davey Martinez and Jim Hickey have 12 more starting pitchers to name, which is becoming a more daunting challenge than either man anticipated.

In a perfect world, the Nationals would’ve had more starters than dates that needed to be filled. They would have Cade Cavalli and MacKenzie Gore ready to finish strong and perhaps allow Josiah Gray to shut down early. They would have the ability to prevent Patrick Corbin from making a run at 20 losses. They would have kids they could summon from their farm system to take over at the end for veterans who just don’t need the work at this point.

But this is not a perfect world, and so Martinez and Hickey may be forced to do some things with their rotation they’d rather not.

Consider Gray, for example. The Nationals have been talking for months about their preference not to let the 24-year-old’s workload get too heavy in his first full professional season. The intention was always going to be to shut him down at some point in late September.

But following Friday night’s 5-2 loss to the Marlins – in which Gray looked really sharp for five innings before faltering in the sixth – Martinez admitted this decision has gotten tougher in the wake of Corbin’s recent back injury. (The left-hander, who was removed from his last start after only 12 pitches, played catch Friday and reported improvement, but there’s still no guarantee he returns to pitch before season’s end.)

MIAMI – MacKenzie Gore will make another rehab start for Triple-A Rochester, leaving the left-hander with enough time to make only major league start for the Nationals before season’s end.

Gore, who threw 67 pitches over four innings of one-run ball Wednesday in his third rehab start, will return to Rochester and attempt to build up to five innings Monday against Worcester.

“We talked to him before he left about trying to throw strike one every (at-bat) and work from there. And as the game went along, they said he started doing a lot more of that,” manager Davey Martinez said. “That’s encouraging. For me, it’s just about honing in on his mechanics, throwing more strikes. And once he does that, I think the five innings and 75 pitches will come.”

Already on the 15-day injured list with left elbow inflammation when the Nationals acquired him as part of the haul of prospects the Padres sent them for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, Gore has slowly built his arm back up over the last six weeks.

The plan all along has included the possibility of one or two major league starts before season’s end. At this point, there wouldn’t be enough time for him to make more than one.

As Cade Cavalli deals with another shutdown and Josiah Gray deals with September struggles, the Nationals at least are seeing some positive signs with the third member of the young pitching trio they hope to build their rotation around.

MacKenzie Gore made his second rehab start for Triple-A Rochester on Friday and tossed 2 2/3 scoreless innings on 57 pitches, another step on his path toward making his Nats debut before season’s end.

Gore, on the 15-day injured list with elbow inflammation since late July (before he was part of the Nationals’ blockbuster trade with the Padres for Juan Soto and Josh Bell), built up both his innings and pitch count in his second rehab start for Rochester.

The left-hander did put six Lehigh Valley batters on base in his 2 2/3 innings (four singles, two walks) but didn’t allow any of them to score while striking out two. He threw 32 of his 57 pitches for strikes.

Assuming Gore came out of this outing healthy, the Nats are likely to have him make another rehab start in five or six days, building up to roughly 70 pitches. Depending on how that goes, the club could decide to activate him off the IL with enough time to make two big league starts before the season ends Oct. 5.

Luis García has excelled at his new position in the field. How will he handle a new position in the Nationals lineup?

García finds himself batting cleanup tonight for the first time in his career, penciled in by manager Davey Martinez as his No. 4 hitter for the Nats’ series opener against the Orioles.

It’s both a reflection of García's performance at the plate and the state of the rest of the lineup, which has seen Nelson Cruz struggle mightily and get bumped out of the cleanup spot, plus Keibert Ruiz land on the injured list likely for the remainder of the season.

“I wanted to try to break up our lineup with some of those righties and get him in there,” Martinez said. “He matches up well with (Orioles starter Dean Kremer) in there today. I thought we’ll give it a shot, see how he reacts to it. When he hits the ball, he hits it hard. I like the way he’s swinging the bat. So we’re going to put him at cleanup and see how he does.”

García has enjoyed a sustained stretch of success at the plate, batting .312 with four doubles, two homers, nine RBIs and an .809 OPS over his last 14 games. That coincides with his return from a minor groin strain and his move from shortstop to second base following CJ Abrams’ arrival from the Padres.

PHILADELPHIA – Some news and notes before the Nationals take on the Phillies in the second game of this weekend’s series at Citizens Bank Park …

* MacKenzie Gore is set to make a rehab start Sunday for Triple-A Rochester at Syracuse, his first game action since his acquisition from the Padres at the trade deadline.

Gore, who has been on the 15-day injured list with left elbow inflammation, is scheduled to throw three innings for the Red Wings, perhaps building up his pitch count to 45.

The Nationals are attempting to build Gore up enough to come off the IL before season’s end. Manager Davey Martinez said they’d ideally like for him to get up to five innings and 75 pitches, so that would suggest three minor league rehab starts and then at most two starts for the Nats in the season’s final days.

“The most exciting thing is that he’s throwing off the mound again. The ball’s coming out, and he looks like he’s good,” Martinez said. “Now it’s just a matter of facing hitters. We saw him do that a little bit, but now he gets to compete. I’m looking forward to watching him do that. My big thing is to make sure that when he leaves here this year, he’s healthy and he can go into the winter. And then we’ll build him up and get him ready for spring training.”

PHILADELPHIA – Keibert Ruiz’s season has likely come to an abrupt end after the Nationals placed their young catcher on the injured list with a testicular contusion that forced him to remain in a St. Louis hospital overnight after he was struck by a foul ball during the team’s series finale against the Cardinals.

Ruiz was discharged and was flying to Philadelphia late this afternoon to rejoin the Nationals, who formally placed him on the 10-day IL prior to tonight’s game against the Phillies. Manager Davey Martinez, though, said Ruiz has been instructed not to partake in any strenuous activities for three weeks, which leaves him almost no chance of making it back before the season ends in 26 days.

“We hope that he just continues to get better,” Martinez said. “We’ll see how he’s doing. But with everything going on, the doctors said he’s not able to do anything strenuous for three weeks. So we’re just going to take it day by day and take it from there.”

Martinez generally was encouraged about Ruiz’s progress in the last day and didn’t sound overly concerned about his long-term well-being. Assuming his season is over, the 24-year-old will finish with a .251 batting average, 22 doubles, seven homers, 36 RBIs and a .673 OPS across 433 plate appearances.

Ruiz enters the day having caught 106 games, second only to the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto this season. He has thrown out 18 basestealers while also picking off four runners, giving him 22 total runners thrown out (again, second only to Realmuto among all major league catchers).

ST. LOUIS – It was a far cry from an actual major league game, and it was far from perfect from a performance standpoint, but MacKenzie Gore’s simulated game this afternoon at Busch Stadium represented an important step in a rehab process the left-hander believes will conclude with his Nationals debut before season’s end.

“Big step in the right direction,” he said. “I felt good. It wasn’t perfect, by any means. But I felt good, and definitely moving in the right direction.”

Gore, who was acquired from the Padres in the Juan Soto-Josh Bell trade while on the 15-day injured list with left elbow inflammation, threw 37 pitches over two simulated innings today. He worked with Tres Barrera behind the plate, facing teammates Josh Palacios, Riley Adams and Alex Call.

This was the first time the 23-year-old faced live hitters since July 25, when he departed the Padres’ game in Detroit after only 33 pitches and reported elbow soreness. He landed on the IL shortly after that, and a week later was one of six players dealt to the Nats for Soto and Bell.

Gore has been rehabbing with the big league club since, getting comfortable with the Nationals’ medical and coaching staffs. He threw three times off a bullpen mound leading up to today’s outing. The plan moving forward: He’s scheduled to throw another bullpen session Friday in Washington, and if everything goes well, he’ll be sent out on a minor league rehab assignment.

Tuesday’s news about Cade Cavalli, who is going on the injured list and could be done for the season with right shoulder inflammation, was incredibly discouraging for the Nationals.

Now here’s an even more discouraging thought: What if Cavalli’s injury prompts the team to shut down MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray before season’s end as well?

That’s certainly on the table, when you consider what Davey Martinez said when asked if the Cavalli situation might make the club more cautious about handling its two other young starters the rest of the way.

“Yeah, we’re going to look at all that stuff,” he said, later adding: “We’re going to spend the next few weeks just watching these guys, watching them progress, and see where we’re at.”

There are concerns about all three of them, for varying reasons.