Spring storylines: Is the rotation healthy?

We’ve reached the final countdown to spring training, so we’re counting down the biggest storylines facing the Nationals this spring in West Palm Beach. We continue today with a look at a rotation that is counting on the healthy return of multiple starters …

If the Nationals are going to show significant improvement in 2023, if this franchise is going to take a big step forward in its rebuilding process this year, it is almost certainly going to coincide with a major turnaround from what was the majors’ worst rotation in 2022.

What used to be the organization’s unquestioned strength was its unquestioned No. 1 weakness last season. The rotation finished with an abysmal 5.97 ERA, an abysmal 30-86 record and a 1.563 WHIP that was the worst mark by any major league rotation since the 2012 Rockies.

How could the situation improve this season? The best hope comes in the form of two young potential building blocks with all the ability in the world but little track record, at least while wearing a Nationals uniform.

Cade Cavalli made one start for the Nats last year. MacKenzie Gore made none. That won’t be the case this year. If it is, the franchise is in serious trouble.

Cavalli’s Aug. 26 debut was one of the most anticipated days of the season, but the 2020 first-round pick struggled against the Reds and then reported shoulder soreness the following day. He would be shut down and wouldn’t make another start before season’s end.

The 24-year-old insists he’s good to go now, though, and the Nationals are banking on him starting 20-plus games for them this season, showing off the dazzling repertoire that made him such a highly touted prospect in the first place.

“I’m following our plan, and all is good there,” Cavalli said in December, after he had begun throwing again. “I’ve been really happy about it.”

Gore was acquired in the Aug. 2 blockbuster deal that sent Juan Soto and Josh Bell to the Padres, and though he was on the injured list with elbow inflammation at the time of the trade, the Nationals hoped to see him pitch for them before season’s end.

That didn’t happen, though. Gore did go through a full rehab program and made four starts for Triple-A Rochester, but with stamina still an issue the club decided not to activate him for one big league outing in the season’s final week.

That makes Gore (who impressively sported a 1.50 ERA after his first nine career starts in San Diego) another major question mark entering spring training, even if he also insists he’s healthy and raring to go.

“I got healthy at the end. I just never fully built it up, so we decided what was right,” the lefty said last month. “But I’m full-go right now. I’m treating it like a normal offseason, and I’ll be ready for spring.”

Cavalli and Gore’s importance to the Nationals’ short- and long-term success can’t be overstated. They are the club’s two best pitching prospects, the only ones ready to make any kind of impact right now. Their ability to stay healthy and make it through the season without significant disruption is paramount, and we’ll start to figure out if they are indeed healthy this week as camp opens.

We’ll also start to figure out if Stephen Strasburg has any hope of contributing again.

Strasburg hasn’t been fully healthy since Game 6 of the 2019 World Series. Since that glorious late-October night in Houston, he has signed a $245 million extension, made eight big league starts and had multiple surgeries, the most significant of which was for thoracic outlet syndrome in August 2021.

Unlike Cavalli and Gore, Strasburg isn’t an integral part of the Nationals’ plan anymore. Much as they would love to see him make it all the way back and anchor the staff through the final four years of his contract, they know they can’t just count on that at this point. Any healthy outings for them would have to be considered a huge success.

Strasburg, according to sources familiar with his rehab, resumed throwing earlier this winter and said his arm felt strong. But there’s an understanding among just about everyone within the organization that it doesn’t mean much until he attempts to pitch off a mound this spring and then continue to do that every five days without issue.

That makes these opening days of camp especially critical in gauging Strasburg’s current state of being. Can he start ramping himself up as if he’s going to pitch in April? Or is he about to come to the harsh realization he’s never going to be 100 percent healthy again, at which point he and the Nationals will have no choice but to consider how they wish to proceed.

Those are the preeminent pitching storylines of the spring for the Nats. And until the club has a better sense of the state of all three of those starters, it’s going to be difficult to predict what’s in store in 2023 for a team that desperately needs its rotation to lead the way again, not drag everyone else down.