Talking about the Orioles' draft outlook with Baseball America's John Manuel

When it comes to sizing up the First-Year Player Draft, it is hard to find two more knowledgable and experienced pros than John Manuel of Baseball America and his former colleague, Jim Callis, who is now with MLBPipeline.com.

I had the chance to interview both in the last few days to get their thoughts on the 2015 draft class and what the Orioles might do.

I'll publish Manuel's thoughts today and Callis' before the start of the three-day draft on Monday, when the Orioles have two first-round picks at No. 25 and No. 36 and four in the top 102, adding No. 68 and No. 102.

Both, by the way, are not overly impressed with this year's draft.

"It's a bad class, no doubt about that," Manuel said. "Doesn't mean there aren't big leaguers, but one of the things that makes a good draft is college pitchers that can move to the big leagues quickly. Guys like Chris Sale, Carlos Rodon or Mark Prior when he was healthy. Kevin Gausman with the Orioles.

"This draft, maybe there are three or four college pitchers that could go in the first 10 picks. But none are like the guys just mentioned or can move that quickly. None are future aces. So it's not a strong pitching class and that is where it starts with this class not being great.

"Last year was a special year for high school velocity, but this is a down year for high school pitching. There do not appear to be any to go in the top 10 picks.

"But there are some decent and good college shortstops. There is at least average, if not better than average, college hitting and there are some good high school hitters with some power. There are some intriguing prep bats like Brendan Rodgers and Cornelius Randolph. But the pitching in this class is really below par on both the college and high school sides. Teams like taking college pitchers in the first round but that demographic is weak."

So what does that mean for the Orioles? What players could they be looking at that fall in that No. 20 to No. 40 range with those first two picks?

"Two things stick out to me in that range," Manuel said. "That is when there is likely going to be a run on high school pitchers. It's where this weaker high school class may see a run. Will someone take the Donny Everett kid out of Tennessee who is represented by the Boras Corporation and signability could be difficult? Two high school kids out of Indiana, Ashe Russell and Nolan Watson, and Mike Nikorak from Pennsylvania - that is where some of those kids will start coming off the board. That is the range where the top high school arms should come out according to some scouts I've talked with.

"Second of all, the injured players, some of those guys may be in that range. Two of those guys have mid-Atlantic ties with (UVa pitcher) Nathan Kirby and (Duke pitcher) Michael Mattuela from Great Falls, Va. Kirby's injury was minor, a lat strain, but he hasn't pitched in a month."

Kirby, by the way, is 5-2 with a 2.28 ERA in 10 starts this year with 30 walks and 75 strikeouts in 59 1/3 innings. His coach said he has recovered from the lat strain, but also said he was unlikely to pitch in the NCAA's Super Regional this weekend against the University of Maryland.

Matuella went 1-1 with a 1.08 ERA in six starts this season with Duke before he had to be shutdown and underwent Tommy John surgery.

"Kirby and Matuella were both projected top 10 picks coming into the year," Manuel said. "The fact both had bad years or got hurt are big reasons why they may be available 25 to 40. Could be perceived value if you are picking there, to say, 'Hey we got a top 10 talent picking 25 or 36.'

"Especially if the organization has history with those players and saw them a lot in high school and college. I think the Orioles make more sense for those two than for other teams, if the O's scouts like Dean Albany who know that region so well that they can leverage that."

But Manuel said Kirby's walk-rate could be a red flag.

"We had some data last year where the college walk-rate the last five years for most first-round college pitchers was 2.2 (walks per every nine innings). Kirby doubled that this year. He was at 4.5 and you do that in college you generally don't wind up as a (major league) starting pitcher.

"The walk-rate before he got hurt was why he was dropping in mock drafts. You throw in the lat strain and no one has seen him in a month, he didn't have a chance to improve.

"I've also heard on the college side - (Dan) Duquette is pretty good with analytics on the pro side - that maybe they want to use that this year on the amateur side. That could lead to a college guy like D.J. Stewart who is also another Boras Corporation guy."

Stewart is an outfielder from Florida State with big stats, but a small batting stance. By that I mean he has a pronounced crouch. But in 62 games, he has hit .322 with 13 homers, 55 RBIs and an OBP of .509 with 69 walks heading into the Super Regionals.

"He's consistent in his approach and he draws a ton of walks and hits some homers," Manuel said. "He fits the left field profile. I like the makeup, he's a leadership kind of kid with toughness. He's got some strength.

"What you don't like is his crouch is a Phil Plantier level crouch. It's deep. His thighs are parallel to the ground. First thing you may have to do is change that. Is that what you want to do with a first-round pick? Could mean he moves slower than the average college player. His crouch in my mind is an obstacle.

"And he doesn't have a lot of other ways to help a team if he doesn't hit. His defense and his speed - he's a fringe-average runner with below average defense and arm. So you are buying a bat here."