The precedent for a Holliday Year 2 leap

Kids say the darndest things, don’t they?

A question-and-answer session with Orioles fans at the Guinness Open Gate Brewery left the door open for all sorts of wild sound bites. For the kids asking Jackson Holliday questions, queries ranged from why the phenom wanted to play baseball to his pets at home. His dog is named Coconut, for the record.  

“Jackson, are you a grown man?” asked a fan no older than 6, as laughter filled the room. Holliday met the question with a chuckle.  

After being selected first overall in the MLB Draft out of high school in 2022, the phenom rose to the major leagues just two years later. So by major league standards, the former top prospect is far from “grown.”  

Entering the 2024 season, Holliday was the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball. The former first-overall pick had a meteoric rise through the minor leagues in 2023, soaring through four different levels of the farm in 125 total games. Expectations for 2024 couldn’t have been higher. It was almost impossible for the numbers to match the hype.  

The first 60 games of Holliday’s young career didn’t go exactly as hoped. In his first 10, Holliday had just two hits in 34 at-bats. After a stint at Triple-A Norfolk, the 20-year-old’s second stretch in the big leagues showed improvement: 11 extra-base hits and a .650 OPS. But overall, the numbers left room to be desired.  

Are those early struggles typical of a top prospect, and what should we expect from Holliday in 2025?  

Let’s start with a simple fact: Holliday was the No. 1 overall prospect in baseball entering 2024. Since 2011, all of MLB Pipeline’s No. 1 overall prospects have made at least one All-Star Game. Every single one. Seven of the 11 made an All-Star Game within their first three seasons in the big leagues.  

How about the precedent of early struggles? Pipeline’s top prospect in baseball in 2011, Mike Trout, had a .672 OPS in his first season in the big leagues. The next year, Trout had a bWAR of 10.5 and finished second in MVP voting.

That might be a lofty bar, so let’s look more recently. More specifically, let’s narrow the search to an MLB Pipeline top five shortstop prospect that was drafted out of high school. Bobby Witt Jr. had just a .722 OPS in his first season. Gunnar Henderson was better at .788. Gavin Lux was down at .655 in his first two injury-riddled seasons and Anthony Volpe wasn’t much better at .666. Holliday’s .565 is lower, sure, but none were superstars right out of the gate. Witt and Henderson certainly are now, though.  

So let’s take it a step further. How many of those prospects made their major league debut at 20 years old? Just one: Holliday. Henderson and Lux were 21. Witt and Volpe were 22. Holliday’s rapid ascent was unprecedented, and there’s plenty of room to grow.  

Where can Holliday improve? The shortstop-turned-second baseman seems to first be turning to his strikeout rate, which was north of 33 percent last season.  

“Just building off last year, making some adjustments and trying to clean some things up,” Holliday said at Birdland Caravan. “The main thing is just trying to cut down strikeouts, make the defense work and put the ball in play.”  

Holliday’s athleticism can make a big impact on the game, too. His sprint speed was already in the 95th percentile in baseball last season, and it seems like that number could improve next year.  

“Been doing running stuff, going to Tulsa and trying to make that a priority,” Holliday said. “To be able to steal bases and really impact the game in multiple different ways.” 

The skills are apparent. Holliday had an on-base percentage north of .430 in Triple-A last season, which contributed to his .908 OPS. At age 19, he had a .941 OPS across four levels of the minor leagues.  

The expectations for Holliday, and the Orioles as a whole, are incredibly high. But with all of the hype, we can’t forget that Holliday’s ascent is a special case without much precedent. He’s entering his age-21 season. At 21, Adley Rutschman was donning orange and black for the Oregon State Beavers, Jordan Westburg was rocking Mississippi State’s maroon and Gunnar Henderson was starting his Double-A Bowie Baysox career. All have been All-Stars since.  

So to answer that young fan’s question, is Jackson Holliday a grown man? He’ll need to add a few more years to be considered one by major league standard. Just don’t be surprised when he starts playing like one.