Thoughts on Sunday's Garcia-for-Lowe trade

For two months, we knew the Nationals’ biggest offseason need was a first baseman. And for two months, we waited and waited and waited to see who Mike Rizzo would acquire for that all-important position.

In the end, he didn’t sign one of the big-name (aka high-priced) free agents. Pete Alonso remains unsigned, with a return to the Mets perhaps the likeliest outcome. Christian Walker is now an Astro, getting three years and $60 million.

Nor did Rizzo sign one of the second-tier, fallback options in free agency. Paul Goldschmidt went to the Yankees for one year and $12.5 million. Carlos Santana went to the Guardians for one year and $12 million, shortly after Cleveland traded Josh Naylor to the Diamondbacks.

In the end, Rizzo went the trade route himself, snagging Nathaniel Lowe from the Rangers for Robert Garcia on Sunday evening in a deal that finally addressed his team’s biggest need while at the same time creating additional need at another critical position: reliever.

Who is Lowe? He’s a 29-year-old, lefty-hitting, righty-throwing native of Norfolk, Va., who went to high school in suburban Atlanta and played in college at Mississippi State before the Rays used their 13th-round pick on him in the 2016 draft. After getting a taste of the big leagues in 2019-20, the Rays traded him to the Rangers, who gave him the opportunity to play every day.

And he thrived in his new home. In four seasons in Texas, Lowe batted .274 with a .359 on-base percentage and .432 slugging percentage. He averaged 26 doubles, 20 homers and 75 RBIs per season, with an OPS-plus of 121. For what it’s worth, that OPS-plus ranks eighth among all regular major league first basemen since 2021, well behind Alonso (131) and Goldschmidt (133) but ahead of Walker (116) and Santana (97).

Lowe won the Silver Slugger Award in 2022 while mashing a career-high 27 homers with a career-best .851 OPS. His offensive numbers slipped a bit in 2023, but he made more of a difference in the field, winning the Gold Glove Award. He also started each of the Rangers’ games throughout their run to the World Series title, launching three homers along the way.

He is, by all accounts, popular in the clubhouse. He’s got a keen eye at the plate, with one of the highest walk rates in the majors. He rates well in most defensive metrics.

And he’s under club control for two seasons, projected to make about $10.7 million via arbitration in 2025, then likely to receive another raise in 2026 before he can become a free agent.

Here’s an apt comparison: Over the four seasons he played before signing with the Nationals in 2011, Adam LaRoche batted .270 with a .340 on-base percentage and .478 slugging percentage. So, while Lowe falls a bit short in the power department, he gets on base more than LaRoche did. And maybe most significantly, he’s two years younger than LaRoche was when he signed his two-year, $15 million deal to join a Nats team that believed it was ready to win for the first time.

LaRoche, of course, only cost money. Lowe costs money and the promising major league pitcher Rizzo sent the Rangers to acquire him.

Don’t let Garcia’s 4.22 ERA this season fool you. The left-hander’s peripherals all suggested he was far better than that, from his high strikeout rate, low walk rate, high groundball rate and low rate of loud contact surrendered. He had some blowup outings, for sure, and those tended to come when he was pitching on back-to-back days. But the 28-year-old has a promising future, and the Rangers get five seasons of club control with him.

Rizzo did what he needed to do to fill a major hole in his lineup. But he’s still got plenty of work to do this winter to remake a bullpen that now has only two returning members who pitched in at least 30 games this season: Derek Law and Jose A. Ferrer.

Other relievers currently on the 40-man roster include right-handers Eduardo Salazar, Zach Brzykcy, Orlando Ribalta, Amos Willingham, Rule 5 draft pick Evan Reifert and the still-rehabbing Mason Thompson. Joe La Sorsa is the only left-hander besides Ferrer.

Suffice it to say, the Nationals need to add several experienced relievers to this mix, including someone with closing experience.

Fortunately, there are dozens of free agent relievers still seeking jobs, and while an experienced closer won’t come cheap, most others can be had for modest salaries. Remember, Rizzo signed Dylan Floro for $2.25 million last winter, then added Law and Jacob Barnes on minor league deals during spring training.

There are still seven weeks to go until pitchers and catchers report, then six weeks of spring training before the final 26-man roster heads north for Opening Day.

There’s plenty of work left to do to improve this roster. But Sunday evening’s trade took care of, arguably, this winter’s No. 1 priority.