Tough to predict how Nats rotation will look later this season

There’s nothing more tempting in baseball than to try to predict a team’s pitching plan for both the short-term and long-term. And there are few exercises that almost always turn up results that don’t come to fruition.

Way back in March, as the Nationals prepped for the season in West Palm Beach, it seemed a given that Trevor Williams’ hold on the fifth spot in the Opening Day rotation was tenuous at best. Shoot, there even seemed to be a reasonable chance he would lose the job to spring training invitee Zach Davies. Then Davies had a blowup start that led to his release and Williams retained his starting job entering the season.

Even so, the leash on Williams figured to be short, especially on the heels of a miserable 2023 season. A couple of bad weeks to begin April and he might be bumped to the bullpen, opening the door for Jackson Rutledge (presumably the first-man up at Triple-A) to get his shot.

Then Williams got off to a great start to the season, and instead the opening in the Nats rotation came via injury to Josiah Gray. The choice to replace Gray wasn’t Rutledge (who was off-schedule at the time) but Mitchell Parker, who was thrown to the wolves at Dodger Stadium and conceivably could be sent back to Rochester one or two rough starts into his career.

Then Parker exceeded everyone’s expectations and now has solidified his place in the big league rotation for the foreseeable future. And alongside the improving MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin, plus the still-effective Williams, the Nationals had four quality starters giving their team a chance to win every time they took the mound.

The weak link became Patrick Corbin, finally in the final year of his $140 million contract and seemingly on borrowed time at this point. With Gray rehabbing from his flexor strain and Cade Cavalli beginning his long-awaited rehab assignment following last year’s Tommy John surgery, surely Corbin would get bumped at last in the coming weeks.

Except then came the unexpected news Tuesday: Williams was going on the 15-day injured list with his own flexor strain that may or may not be comparable to the one that has kept Gray out nearly two months now.

And the replacement for Williams? Not Rutledge. Not Joan Adon, who has shuttled back and forth between Rochester and D.C. in recent seasons. But DJ Herz, the left-hander acquired for Jeimer Candelario at last summer’s trade deadline, suddenly making his major league debut Tuesday night.

Herz did OK. He didn’t wilt under the pressure, but he nonetheless was charged with four runs on seven hits and two walks in four-plus innings. It wasn’t spectacular, but it was enough to warrant another opportunity later this week.

“Overall, I thought he threw the ball really well,” manager Davey Martinez said, adding: “I can’t wait to see it again.”

This happened on the same day Gray threw 65 pitches over three innings in a simulated game at Nationals Park. Barring any complications, he’s now ready to begin his rehab assignment with one of the organization’s minor league clubs, putting him on track to return from the IL in the next two or three weeks.

Cavalli, meanwhile, has made three rehab starts himself, most recently Thursday for Single-A Wilmington. He’s now waiting to make his next appearance, his much anticipated return looming in the very near future.

So what does this mean the Nationals rotation will look like later this month? Next month? In September?

Are we looking at a quintet of promising young arms from a group of six intriguing options: Gore, Gray, Cavalli, Irvin, Parker, Herz? Will Corbin still find a way to remain as the veteran of the group, good for six innings and 100 pitches every fifth day no matter how high his ERA reaches? When will Williams be healthy enough to return, and when that happens, does he slot right back in the rotation as the Nats try to boost his trade value before the July 30 deadline? And what about Rutledge, owner of a 6.21 ERA in Rochester, and potentially pitching his way out of the mix?

It's easy to sit here and think we know how this will all play out. Or how we hope it will all play out.

But as recent events should have reminded us, things never do seem to play out how we think – or hope – they will. Might as well just sit back and watch how it unfolds.