Weekend series with Mets is measuring stick for Nats

As they've completed a four-game winning streak, emerging victorious in six of their last eight games, the Nationals are facing something of an existential question: Is this legitimate evidence of a long-awaited and sustainable turnaround to a season that began horribly, or is this nothing more than a nice week against weak competition that will soon be exposed as insignificant?

We may have a good sense of the answer to that question by the end of this weekend, after the Nats face the Mets four times in 45 hours in the biggest series of the 2021 season to date.

This is a measuring-stick series for a Washington club that has offered a glimpse of improvement over the last week-plus, but has done so with an important caveat: The opposition has been rather weak, certainly at the plate.

A three-game sweep of the Pirates was, no doubt, a welcome development for the Nationals, who raised their record to 30-35 and for a brief while were tied with the Braves for third place in the National League East until Atlanta moved half a game ahead with Thursday night's victory over the Cardinals. But did it really tell us that much about the quality of this team?

The Pirates have lost 10 straight and feature a lineup as anemically weak as the one the Nats have often trotted out there this season. Yes, the Nationals looked good during the three-game sweep, but the only real conclusion that could be drawn was that they proved they're better than the third-worst team in the majors.

Prior to that series was a 3-3 stretch against two teams with some of the best records in baseball: the Rays and Giants. Those wins should carry a bit more weight, but San Francisco didn't exactly look like world-beaters during that series, with a lineup that again didn't strike much fear in anyone's hearts.

The truth of the matter is this: The Nationals have done very well against bad teams this season, less so against quality competition. They're now 9-0 against the Pirates, Marlins and Orioles. Which means they're 21-35 against everyone else.

That's not necessarily a viable path back into contention. Though it should be noted they were in an awfully familiar situation two years ago.

We all know about the turnaround following the 19-31 start. But do you remember who the Nationals beat during that turnaround, especially the early portion of it?

The Nats reached the 2019 All-Star break at 47-42, a remarkable surge that already had them in wild card position with 2 1/2 months to go. They did so by going 23-7 against the Marlins, Reds, White Sox, Padres, Phillies, Tigers and Royals.

At the time, there were plenty of doubters who didn't believe they actually were that good a team, who believed they were simply feasting on weak competition and couldn't hold their own against quality opponents. It wasn't until a late-August sweep at Wrigley Field that many doubters began to come around on the Nationals, who of course by the end of October had converted every last person who didn't believe in them.

Which brings us to this weekend's series against the Mets, currently the only team in the division comfortably over .500, though still hampered by a boatload of injuries, including to ace Jacob deGrom.

Here is an opportunity for the Nationals to prove they deserve to be taken seriously. A four-game split, or better yet a series victory, would go a long way toward establishing their legitimacy, especially if a pitching staff that has allowed seven total runs in the last seven games can continue the trend.

A series loss doesn't prove they're not for real. No one series does that, especially in June. But the players themselves understand what a good weekend could mean for them.

"For us right now, every series is important. We're trailing in the division, so I don't think we can take any series lightly," closer Brad Hand said in a Zoom session with reporters following Wednesday's win. "But we're playing the first-place team in our division. It's definitely nice to beat up on them. That's the way you make up ground quick.

"You don't talk about it, but everybody knows it: The Mets are coming to town."

So, how will we feel about the state of things when they leave town Sunday evening?