Morton's curveball key to potential return to form

PHOENIX – Charlie Morton hasn’t been pitching like Charlie Morton.

The veteran wasn’t signed to be an ace, nor, really, to be the second starter in the Orioles rotation. But that’s where the 41-year-old has found himself slotted in Baltimore’s first trips around the order.

Baltimore signed him in hopes of capturing what he’s been the last few years: reliable, steady and consistent.

From 2021 to 2024, the then Atlanta Brave made 124 starts, averaging 31 per season. He delivered a solid 3.87 ERA, 1.250 WHIP and over 10 strikeouts per nine innings. That’s exactly what the Orioles needed: a rotation piece that would post every fifth day and keep you in ballgames, even if the numbers weren’t incredibly flashy.

In his first two games of 2025, Morton hasn’t found flash, nor has he found reliability. And he hasn’t found the ways in which he normally gets outs.

Morton began the year with 3 ⅓ innings and four earned runs in Toronto, and five innings and five earned runs back at Camden Yards against Boston. He did strike out 10 in his second outing, but fell victim to two two-run homers.

“Even though he gave up a couple of homers, I thought the stuff was really good,” Brandon Hyde said of tonight’s starter. “(Alex) Bregman got him, and the curveball to (Kristian) Campbell wasn’t his best with two strikes. Besides that, I thought he threw the ball really well.”

Throwing the ball well or not, the numbers have yet to be there through two starts. Why the struggles so far? There’s two big factors that jump out: His ever-reliable curveball has been anything but, and he hasn’t been able to get the ball on the ground. 

Let’s start with the groundball rate. 

Dating back to Morton’s debut season in 2008, there has been one year in which he has had a groundball rate below 40 percent. That year was 2022, and his 4.34 ERA was his worst of any season with at least 10 starts since 2015.

His groundball rate to begin 2025 is all the way down at 24 percent, meaning Morton’s fly ball percentage and line drive percentage are the highest of his career. In fact, the percentage of balls pulled in the air this season is twice as high as 2024. That’s helped contribute to the highest home-run-per-fly-ball rate of his 18-year-career.

Now let’s talk curveball.

For years, that offering has been Morton’s bread and butter. From 2021 to 2024, Morton’s run value on his curveball ranked in the top 15 in the game, twice being the very best in the game, according to Statcast. As recently as 2023, that pitch had a run value of +21.

To begin 2025, batters have been teeing off on the curve to the tune of a .455 batting average and .818 slugging percentage. It’s been hit hard, meaning over 95 mph off the bat, 75 percent of the time.

There aren’t any pitch shape reasons to be found. The spin rate, vertical break and horizontal break on the pitch are consistent with years past. FanGraphs’ stuff plus metric on the pitch, measuring the quality of its physical characteristics, are consistent with past years of success. The location-plus is even better.

When these sorts of metrics are consistent with past years but the results are drastically different, we’re left with an easier takeaway to swallow: perhaps there’s nothing wrong with the pitch itself, and Morton has just run into some bad luck on the offering in a small sample size.

And it showed improvement from Game 1 to Game 2. Like Hyde said, there are still encouraging signs.

“I thought it was more effective his last start,” Hyde said.

“To punch out 10 in five innings, that’s not easy to do. Obviously, the stuff is there.”

Those signs point to a return to form for Morton. And in a rotation with injury concerns known and potentially lurking, a bounceback start tonight from the veteran righty would be a sight for sore eyes.

Breadcrumbs from the skipper
There’s still no reason to panic about Zach Eflin quite yet. Hyde noted that Eflin “felt really good waking up this morning.” He added that he “didn’t feel the soreness as bad.” He got an MRI today and the Orioles are awaiting those results: “It’s a wait and see right now.”

Félix Bautista delivered a good outing to close out last night’s game. No strikeouts, but two groundouts and a popout.

“I thought last night was as close to what Félix looks like as we’ve seen,” Hyde said.

Last night’s five runs weren’t Baltimore’s highest scoring output, but it was one of the best offensive performances of the season.

“I know we’ve put up some bigger numbers in other games," Hyde said, "but from a team approach standpoint against a quality starter like Gallen, I thought it was a really, really good five innings of offensive baseball.”