What's the Nats' catching plan now after retaining Adams?

The predominant headline two weeks ago at the non-tender deadline was the Nationals’ decision not to retain Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey. Drawing less attention at the time was their decision to retain six other arbitration-eligible players: Luis Garcia Jr., MacKenzie Gore, Josiah Gray, Derek Law, Riley Adams and Mason Thompson.

Perhaps the most surprising name on that list was Adams, who after a difficult season that twice saw him optioned to Triple-A Rochester seemed like a potential non-tender candidate. Instead, the Nats opted to keep the 28-year-old catcher, creating a potential tricky situation come March.

With 3 years, 5 days of big league service time, Adams qualifies for arbitration this winter for the first time in his career. He made $750,900 this season and is on track for a modest raise in 2025, with MLB Trade Rumors projecting a salary of $1.1 million.

That’s not a huge difference, of course, but that’s not the tricky part of the situation for the Nationals. If Adams and the team are able to agree to a 2025 salary without going to an arbitration hearing, that salary will be guaranteed in full.

This is a little-known change to the current collective bargaining agreement, which went into effect after the 2022 season. Previously, if a club released an arbitration-eligible player during spring training, it was only responsible for 30 or 45 days’ worth of termination pay, depending on the exact date the transaction was made. We saw the Nationals take advantage of that rule several times in the past, most notably releasing right-hander John Patterson (their 2007 Opening Day starter) in March 2008.

Now, teams must pay the entire year’s salary to a player in that situation. So the Nats couldn’t decide to cut Adams this spring without paying him in full. And they can’t send him to Triple-A anymore without first passing him through waivers because he’s out of options.

Would another club claim a backup catcher out of options making more than $1 million guaranteed? Probably not, unless it was clear he would stick on a big league roster the entire season.

Point is, by tendering Adams a contract now, the Nationals either are guaranteeing him a spot on their Opening Day roster or are saying they’re willing to eat $1 million if he doesn’t make the team.

How does all of this impact their other potential backup catcher, Drew Millas? Unlike Adams, Millas does still have options. So he can be sent to Rochester to begin the season, bide his time and be ready for a promotion if the need arises.

But there’s been reasonable evidence the Nationals view Millas as a better big league option for them right now than Adams, most notably the fact Millas spent all of September in the majors backing up Keibert Ruiz while Adams finished out the year in Rochester.

Millas may not prove to be better than Adams in the long run, so it may not matter in the end. But at this point, the Nats have a pretty good idea what kind of major leaguer Adams (owner of a .682 OPS and 1.8 bWAR in 180 games) is. They don’t really know what kind of major leaguer Millas (.694 OPS, 0.6 bWAR in 31 games) is.

That loomed as the team’s potential justification for non-tendering Adams two weeks ago. In choosing instead to bring him back, the club appears to be committing to him over Millas for the 2025 season.

If not, it’s going to cost the Nationals more cash now than it would have in the past.