What went right and what went wrong in the first half

The Nationals entered the 2022 season with modest expectations. Such is life when you lost 107 games the previous year and spent a grand total of $17 million on free agents over the winter.

When they reached the All-Star break this week, the Nats found themselves with a 36-54 record, which equates to a 65-97 record over a full season. So while that doesn’t seem like anything to get excited about, it would still represent a 10-game improvement from 2022, and that’s not nothing.

Which isn’t to say a whole lot of things went well in the first half. There were a few positive developments, including some very significant ones. But there were some legitimate negatives as well, some which could threaten the viability of this franchise returning to contention within the next two years.

Let’s take stock of both the good and the bad to date. Here’s what went right for the Nationals in the first half, and what went wrong …

RIGHT: YOUNG STARTING PITCHERS
If you could’ve picked only one positive development for this team back on Opening Day, wouldn’t you have picked MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray? So much of this season was about their progression (plus Cade Cavalli, who unfortunately won’t be able to progress until 2024 due to Tommy John surgery in March). And while it hasn’t been a straight, upward line for both young starters, the arrow has ultimately pointed up more than down. Gray has been one of the most improved pitchers in the league, lowering his ERA from 5.02 to 3.41 even though his WHIP has gone up and his strikeout rate has gone down a bit. He’s been successful because he’s kept the ball in the park and because he’s been able to pitch out of jams. An All-Star berth (and a 1-2-3 inning of relief in Tuesday night’s game) is merely the cherry on top. Gore, meanwhile, is still a work-in-progress with a 4.42 ERA and 1.461 WHIP. But when he’s good, he’s as good as anybody, with four starts so far that featured one or two runs allowed and at least nine strikeouts recorded. And don’t overlook Jake Irvin, a pleasant surprise who wasn’t on anybody’s radar but now looks like a potential back-of-the-rotation starter for the future.

WRONG: POWER FROM VETERANS
The Nationals knew they weren’t going to set the world on fire in the power department, but they did expect their more experienced hitters to provide some thunder in the heart of their lineup. Instead, they’ve gotten a total of 13 homers out of Joey Meneses, Dominic Smith and Corey Dickerson. And that total was nine until Meneses finally broke through with a big weekend to close out the first half. Smith and Dickerson haven’t come close to providing what the club thought it was getting when it signed each guy for $2 million. Worse, neither has much trade value heading into the final weeks before the Aug. 1 deadline. That’s been a huge disappointment.

RIGHT: INFIELD DEFENSE
It’s a bit tricky to evaluate the Nationals’ defense so far, because at times it has felt like a significant upgrade from last year and at times it has felt just as bad as it ever was. In the larger picture, though, their infield defense has been solid. Jeimer Candelario has been smooth at third base, and Smith (despite his offensive woes) has made a real difference at first base. CJ Abrams and Luis García are still prone to mistakes up the middle, but they’ve also made a good number of outstanding plays and have helped the team turn 87 double plays (second-most in the majors). Some more consistency would be much appreciated, but overall this has been an improved group.

WRONG: EVERYONE ELSE’S DEFENSE
The same can’t be said for the Nationals’ defensive performance in the outfield or behind the plate, the primary reasons the team ranks 28th in the majors with minus-28 Defensive Runs Saved. Keibert Ruiz remains a poor pitch framer and gives up a ton of stolen bases (though much of that is the fault of his pitching staff, not himself). Lane Thomas has a good arm but struggles to make plays near the wall. Victor Robles had a penchant for misplays on routine fly balls before hurting his back, though Alex Call has been solid as his replacement in center field. Stone Garrett has been good in left, but Dickerson has been poor. And the strangest stat of all: The Nats have minus-12 Defensive Runs Saved as a result simply of their outfield positioning, far and away worst in the majors. Davey Martinez has explained that they purposely play guys deep to try to avoid giving up extra-base hits, but they’re giving up a ton of bloop singles as a result, and that seems to be hurting them more.

RIGHT: LANE THOMAS
When they acquired him right at the 2021 trade deadline for Jon Lester, the Nationals hoped maybe they had themselves a decent fifth outfielder. Two years later, they have themselves a near-All-Star outfielder. Thomas deserved a trip to Seattle this week after hitting .302/.347/.497 with 23 doubles, 14 homers, 49 RBIs and eight stolen bases in the first half. He truly has come into his own this season, and he’s sustained this production long enough to believe it’s not a complete fluke. Is this who he’s going to be for the rest of his career? Maybe not. But he looks like a lot more than a fifth outfielder right now, and that creates an interesting dilemma for Mike Rizzo as his considers whether to listen to trade offers for a 27-year-old with two more years of club control.

WRONG: LACK OF WALKS
In case you hadn’t noticed, Nationals hitters aren’t very patient. They’re last in the majors in walks, on pace to finish with only 401 for the season, which would be their lowest total in club history outside of the 60-game 2020 campaign. And it’s only getting worse as the season progresses. Over their last 37 games, the Nats have drawn an average of 1.9 walks per game. It’s tough enough to win when you don’t hit homers. It’s nearly impossible when you don’t draw walks, either.

RIGHT: BACK OF THE BULLPEN
Yes, there have been some notable blowups along the way, and those have been tough to watch. But overall, the quartet of Kyle Finnegan, Hunter Harvey, Mason Thompson and Jordan Weems has been quite good. Collectively, they own a 3.29 ERA and 1.156 WHIP while striking out just a tick below one batter per nine innings. Thompson has been a workhorse who worked out some mechanical glitches after a rough May to return to form in June and July. Finnegan has been a wizard at pitching his way out of inherited jams and often coming back to pitch another inning after that. Harvey is proving he can stay healthy while firing 100 mph fastballs. And Weems has been a nice revelation over the last month. That has allowed the Nats to overcome the loss of Carl Edwards Jr. to injury and not suffer much for it.

WRONG: REST OF THE BULLPEN
When the “A” bullpen is rested and the team is in a close game late, the Nationals are in a good position to win. When that’s not true, it gets ugly. Everybody not named Finnegan, Harvey, Thompson or Weems who has pitched in relief this season owns a collective 6.34 ERA and 1.700 WHIP. Woof. That has unfortunately turned some potentially close games into blowouts. And in some cases, when Martinez has had no choice but to sit his overworked top relievers, the backups have blown late leads. The lack of a proven left-hander remains a major problem, though perhaps rookie Jose A. Ferrer could finally be an answer in that department.