Where the Nationals stand at the official midway point of 2024

ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. – The sting of a 3-1 loss to the Rays was still fresh, not to mention the frustration of a losing streak that has now reached four games and dropped the Nationals from a temporary spot in the National Leauge’s final wild card slot to a spot well below that key standing.

But as Jesse Winker contemplated where this team stood upon reaching the official halfway point of the season – 38-43, four games out of a playoff berth with 81 games still to go – the veteran outfielder couldn’t help but think about the expectations way back in March compared to now.

“If we were to all sit in Palm Beach and you said we’d be right here, right now at this point, I think everyone would be pretty stoked about that,” Winker said. “Keeping that in perspective is obviously a big deal.”

Indeed, most anyone associated with a Nationals club that finished last in the division four years in a row and was happy to win 71 games in 2023 would have to be content with the current state of affairs.

This wasn’t a great first half, nor would anyone try to claim it was. But it was better than most probably expected, and it featured far more encouraging developments than discouraging ones.

“We’re doing OK,” manager Davey Martinez said.

The Nats flirted with the .500 mark through much of the season’s first half, reaching that magic winning percentage eight times and even surpassing it once (May 7, when a 3-0 victory over the Orioles propelled them to an 18-17 record). That was the first time they had won more games than they'd lost since June 2021, one month before general manager Mike Rizzo began tearing down the last remnants of a championship roster.

Improvement has come in many forms, but most importantly in the pitching department. The 2023 Nationals finished with a 5.02 ERA (27th out of 30 clubs) and 1.473 WHIP (28th). They gave up the most homers in the majors and issued the sixth-most walks. Halfway through the 2024 season, they sport a 3.98 team ERA (15th out of 30) and 1.286 WHIP (20th) while giving up the fourth-fewest homers and issuing the sixth-fewest walks.

Offensively, it hasn’t been pretty, but it’s perhaps not as bad as you think. The Nats rank 21st in runs scored despite having hit fewer home runs than everyone but the Marlins. They led the majors in stolen bases for much of the first half, only to slip to third recently amid a string of outs made on the basepaths.

And help is on the way. James Wood, one of the consensus top-five prospects in baseball, is scheduled to make his major league debut Monday against the Mets after tearing up Triple-A pitching to the tune of a .353 batting average and 1.058 OPS. Dylan Crews is now at Triple-A as well, batting .273 with a .781 OPS through his first week-plus at the highest level of the minors.

Key young building blocks already here in the majors continue to make strides. CJ Abrams sports an .832 OPS, seventh-best among all major league shortstops and just behind Trea Turner. Luis García Jr. has made significant improvements at second base. Jacob Young is batting .272 with 19 steals and ranks among the league leaders in center field defense. Only catcher Keibert Ruiz (.530 OPS) has regressed among the regular young position players.

The bullpen, even with notable recent hiccups, has been a real strength for the first time in a long time. And the rotation is now anchored by young stalwarts MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz, with Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli both nearly ready to return from injuries.

The internal belief all along has been that this will be a better team in the second half of the season than in the first half. If that comes to fruition, the Nationals are going to enjoy these next 81 games, perhaps enough to give them visions of playing more than 81 more games by season’s end.

“Right where we need to be,” Parker said.