Which five starters will Nats open season with?

Friday’s signing of Shinnosuke Ogasawara truly came out of left field. Not only because the Nationals had never signed a free agent out of Japan (or any other Asian country). But because they didn’t seem to be in the market for another starting pitcher, at least not one who wouldn’t instantly slot into the front of the rotation, as opposed to the back.

Ogasawara, by all indications, does not project to be a frontline starter in the major leagues. He figures to get a shot to earn the fourth or fifth starter job coming out of spring training. But there’s also reasonable speculation his chances of long-term success here will increase if he becomes a reliever.

The Nats didn’t give the 27-year-old left-hander a guaranteed, two-year deal worth a reported $3.5 million, though, if they didn’t expect him to be part of the Opening Day pitching staff. And Ogasawara, whose 45-day negotiating window was set to expire Friday if he didn’t sign with any major league club, likely chose Washington because of the opportunity he’ll get here that perhaps he wasn’t guaranteed to get elsewhere.

We’re scheduled to hear from general manager Mike Rizzo this afternoon, so hopefully we’ll get a better idea then what exactly the club’s plans for Ogasawara are. But if he truly is given a chance to make the rotation, he’s going to join a crowded group of arms competing for only a couple of open spots.

Barring a trade – which, of course, you can never rule out – the Nationals will go into spring training with MacKenzie Gore and Jake Irvin assured of starting jobs, based on their performances last season. That now leaves five others, in theory, competing for three more spots in the rotation.

Rizzo already signed Michael Soroka to a one-year, $9 million deal and re-signed Trevor Williams to a two-year, $14 million deal. Both right-handers suggested they were told upon signing they would be starting for the Nats. That, of course, could change, and both Soroka and Williams have had success elsewhere as multi-inning relievers. But for now, their salaries (two of the highest on the current roster) would seem to dictate they get priority to start over less accomplished pitchers.

Where does that leave DJ Herz and Mitchell Parker, who combined to make 48 big league starts for the Nationals last season? There already appeared to be only one spot available to one of the young lefties, with the other probably destined to open the year at Triple-A Rochester and await the call when needed. Now, there may not be room for either.

That presumes Ogasawara makes the rotation himself, along with Soroka, Williams, Gore and Irvin. It may not be smart to make that kind of presumption. The Nats could make a reasonable claim they want to ease the Japanese lefty into life in the majors and have him begin the season as a long reliever. Then, if he pitches well enough, he could get a chance to start somewhere along the way.

It’s also worth noting the Nationals bullpen is woefully thin on lefties. The departures of Robert Garcia (traded to the Rangers for Nathaniel Lowe) and Joe La Sorsa (designated for assignment Friday to clear a 40-man roster spot for Ogasawara) leave the team with only one other left-handed reliever: Jose A. Ferrer. Perhaps Ogasawara actually helps the club more out of the bullpen, given the current makeup of the group.

There’s time for all of this to sort itself out. If nothing else, the Nats should have some compelling competition to monitor this spring, with more potential starters than available rotation slots. And while you never wish for injury, you also have to acknowledge the always-real threat of someone getting hurt, which would help solve the overcrowded pitching situation that’s brewing.