Who among deep pool of prospects will seize third base job long term?

If you were asked to predict the Nationals’ Opening Day lineup right now, you could probably rattle off six names without too much fear of being wrong. James Wood, Jacob Young and Dylan Crews figure to return as the starting outfield. CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia Jr. are likely to return as the starting middle infield. Keibert Ruiz is all but certain to start behind the plate.

We know first base is a top priority for the organization this winter, with several prominent free agents available if the Nats are ready to spend big again. And the DH slot could be filled by an outside acquisition, by someone already in the organization or some combination of the two.

But what about third base? That’s where it gets more complicated.

The hot corner has truly been a revolving door around here the last five seasons. From 2014-19, Anthony Rendon played 736 games there. The only other player to appear in more than 34 games there was Yunel Escobar, who took over the position in 2015 when an injury plagued Rendon saw more time at second base.

But since Rendon left for Anaheim following the World Series, the Nationals have searched for and failed to find a permanent replacement at third base. A whopping 19 players have appeared in at least one game there since 2020, only two of them seeing action in more than 100 games: Ildemaro Vargas (126) and Carter Kieboom (114).

Four different players manned the position this season with roughly equal opportunity. Nick Senzel was supposed to be the Opening Day starter but injured his thumb and wound up playing in only 46 games before getting released. Trey Lipscomb took over but never could hit consistently enough to hold the job for long stretches, finishing with 55 games at the position. Vargas was the always available utilityman who was plugged in at third base 41 times when the team needed him. And Jose Tena finished the year as the regular, with 34 games played at a position he was still learning on the fly.

So where does that leave the situation now? It’s still very much up in the air, but there are a number of intriguing options that weren’t ready to be in the mix this season.

It has long felt like the Nats are just waiting for Brady House to make his major league debut, at which point the 2021 first round pick will finally prove himself the long term solution everyone has pined for. In the club’s best case scenario, that will come to fruition. But House, still only 21, has much to prove.

House’s minor league numbers this year were fine, but hardly spectacular. In 75 games with Double-A Harrisburg, he slashed .234/.311/.423 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs. Promoted to Triple-A Rochester in July, he slashed .250/.280/.375 with six homers and 32 RBIs in 54 games to close out the season. Most evaluators still believe he’ll hit for power and play solid defense, but the Nationals aren’t going to hand him the job before he proves he’s ready for it. And there’s no guarantee when that will happen.

If House doesn’t win the job in spring training, the Nats could stick with Tena, at least as a short term option who could play his way into a long term job if he can make solid contact the way he did following his trade deadline acquisition from the Guardians, and if he can show real improvement in the field. Again, though, no guarantees.

There was a point earlier this year when some club officials seemed to believe Lipscomb was the long term answer at third base. Defensively, there’s no question he can thrive at the position. But he’ll have to make some dramatic strides at the plate and improve his .500 OPS by at least 200 points to have a real shot in the long run.

Fortunately, there are three more prospects in the minors who could work their way into the picture at some point, perhaps as soon as 2025.

Yoyo Morales, the top pick of the second round in the 2023 Draft, delivered a .785 OPS in 75 games this season, the vast majority of those at Double-A. A renowned power hitter at the University of Miami, though, he hasn’t discovered his power stroke as a professional yet, with only seven homers in 496 plate appearances. (He does have 29 doubles, five triples and 73 RBIs, for what it’s worth.) A natural third baseman, Morales did see considerable time at first base in Harrisburg while teammates with House.

The Nationals acquired another third baseman in a July trade, snagging Cayden Wallace from the Royals for Hunter Harvey. Rated as Kansas City’s second best prospect at the time of the deal, Wallace spent much of the season on the injured list with an oblique strain and later a fractured rib. The 23-year-old still needs to master the Double-A level, but when healthy he has shown an ability to hit in the minors.

And then there’s the least experienced member of the group, but perhaps one of the most intriguing: Seaver King. The 10th overall pick in this summer’s draft, he’s a natural shortstop who proved he could play all around the field at Wake Forest (including 36 games at third base). King has played only 20 games as a professional, all at low Single-A Fredericksburg. But he’s considered incredibly polished for his age, someone who could be fast tracked to the majors because of his pedigree coming out of a top college program. Would the Nats move him all the way up to D.C. before season’s end? It sounds like a stretch, but they’ve done it before, most recently with Crews.

So, where does all of that leave the Nationals when it comes to the third base position? It’s still very much up in the air. And it’s quite possible the person at the hot corner on Opening Day won’t be the person there on July 4, and neither will be the person there for Game 162.

But after five years shuffling players in and out, none of them long term solutions, the organization does appear to have a number of viable options to consider. And if only one of them emerges from the pack and seizes the job, the Nats might finally have the answer to a question that has plagued them since one of their World Series heroes departed for the West Coast.