Who could emerge from Nats' rotation depth this year?

The Nationals have been fortunate when it comes to pitching injuries the last two seasons. No, they haven’t escaped them altogether. But they’ve managed to suffer fewer significant losses than any other team.

It’s true: Over the last two years, the Nats have used only 10 starting pitchers, fewest in the majors. The Blue Jays are next on the list with 12, followed by the Mariners with 14. Everyone else has used at least 15 starters, with the league median number a whopping 22.

Again, the Nationals have dealt with a few significant injuries. Cade Cavalli was ticketed for the Opening Day 2023 rotation but tore his elbow ligament in spring training and has yet to return. Josiah Gray started Opening Day 2024 but was sidelined after only two outings and ultimately needed Tommy John surgery himself. And Trevor Williams, after an outstanding April and May, wound up missing 3 1/2 months with a flexor strain in his right arm.

But the Nats managed to fill those gaps with productive, in-house alternatives. In 2023, it was Jake Irvin stepping up to make his major league debut in early May and then sticking in the rotation all the way through September. In 2024, it was Mitchell Parker and then DJ Herz emerging from Triple-A to replace Gray and Williams, Parker making 29 starts while Herz took the mound 19 times.

It was an impressive example of organizational depth, the kind of pitching depth this organization hadn’t really possessed in a while. And as the countdown to spring training commences, there’s reason to believe the Nationals are well-positioned again with starting pitchers who could step forward if the need arises.

They’re already ahead of the curve with six potential starters competing for five available jobs on Opening Day. Irvin and MacKenzie Gore are locks to make the club. Williams (who re-signed a new two-year deal this winter) and Michael Soroka (one year, $9 million) both said they’ve been told they’re in the rotation as well. So that leaves one remaining spot for either Parker or Herz, assuming good health for everyone else.

If everyone indeed is healthy, one of those two young left-handers probably begins the season in Rochester, pitching every fifth day and awaiting the call. But as we saw last year, the so-called designated sixth starter isn’t necessarily guaranteed to get the first call.

Jackson Rutledge was supposed to be that guy one year ago, the 2019 first round pick among the final cuts at spring training. But when Gray went down early, Rutledge (who was dealing with a minor ankle ailment) was bypassed in place of Parker, who seized the opportunity and ran with it much like Irvin did in 2023.

Rutledge wound up making only three big league appearances all season, starting just one game in a pinch. He remains on the 40-man roster and could work his way back into the mix, but clearly he’s been bypassed on the depth chart at this point.

Same for Joan Adon, who made 10 starts in 2023 but only one in 2024 and was designated for assignment last week when the Nats needed to clear a 40-man roster spot for newly signed infielder Amed Rosario. Adon did clear waivers and was outrighted to Triple-A. So he remains in the organization, though he’ll have to earn his way back onto the 40-man roster in order to return to the big leagues.

Cavalli also remains on the 40-man roster, hopefully healthy at last but now needing to prove he can pitch every fifth day in the minors again before the team considers promoting him to make his long awaited second career start. Two other starters are currently on the 40-man: Cole Henry and Andry Lara, the former having been unable to bounce back from injuries and the latter still a year or two away from reaching the majors.

There are other names to watch, though. These guys aren’t on the 40-man roster, but like Parker and Herz last year and Irvin the year before that should be considered potential candidates to make the leap if the need arises.

The names to watch are Brad Lord and Tyler Stuart. Lord, who turns 25 on Valentine’s Day, is coming off a breakthrough season in which he went 10-4 with a 2.43 ERA in 25 combined starts between Rochester, Double-A Harrisburg and Single-A Wilmington. Stuart, who was acquired from the Mets for Jesse Winker, is a fellow 25-year-old who delivered a 2.08 ERA in four starts at Harrisburg before struggling to a 7.56 ERA in four starts at Rochester at season’s end.

Neither right-hander may be deemed big league ready at this point. But assuming they get invited to big league camp this spring and show the coaching staff and front office something, either or both could find themselves getting a phone call sometime in 2025 to board the next plane for Washington.

Even if they continue their run of fortuitous pitcher health, the Nationals will need to tap into their rotation depth to some extent again this season. They can only hope they find another capable arm from a farm system that has produced three of them in two years.