Why Floro is a bounceback candidate, and why Downs was DFA

If you missed the news late Tuesday afternoon, the Nationals announced three transactions. One of them (the signing of third baseman Nick Senzel for $2 million plus incentives) was no surprise, having previously been reported. One of them (the signing of reliever Dylan Floro for $2.25 million plus incentives) was unexpected, because nobody had previously reported anything about him and the Nats. And one of them (the designating of infielder Jeter Downs) wasn’t previously known but wasn’t particularly surprising, given his performance and standing within the organization.

We are scheduled to hear from both Senzel and Floro this afternoon, so be sure to check back for their reaction to signing with the Nationals. In the meantime, some more thoughts on the news …

* I wrote Tuesday morning the Nats were interested in adding some relief help, specifically seeking to close the obvious gap between their so-called “A bullpen” and “B bullpen.” I wish I could claim I knew what was coming only hours later, but I can’t make that claim in good conscience. I had no idea anything was actually in the works and that close to happening.

The Floro signing, though, really does achieve exactly what Mike Rizzo and Davey Martinez were talking about last week at the Winter Meetings in Nashville. They didn’t need another option to close games (though Floro does have 32 big-league saves on his resume). But they did need another reliever with successful experience pitching late innings in close ballgames. And Floro absolutely fits that description.

Of the 334 innings he’s pitched in the majors, 100 2/3 of them have come in the eighth inning. Another 72 1/3 have come in the ninth inning. And another 59 2/3 of them have come in the seventh inning. His ERA across those innings is 3.60.

Now, Floro’s 2023 numbers with the Marlins and Twins weren’t great. In 62 games, he posted a 4.76 ERA and 1.535 WHIP. Not really what you’re looking for in a reliable setup man. But dig a little deeper, and it’s not hard to find evidence he pitched better than those numbers showed.

Floro’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) was 2.96, better than his career mark of 3.09. His home run rate (0.5 per nine innings) was right in line with his already-outstanding career mark. Same for his walk rate of 2.7 per nine innings. And his strikeout rate actually went up, from 8.3 to 9.2 per nine innings.

Why did Floro struggle? He gave up hits, 11.1 of them per nine innings, way up from his career average of 9.0. The vast majority of those hits, though, were singles (54 of 70). And get this: His groundball rate went way up while his flyball rate went way down. And opponents barreled up only 2.9 percent of their batted balls against him, one of the lowest rates in the majors.

The takeaway from all this: Floro appears to have been the victim of bad luck, bad defense or some combination of the two. He’s not an overpowering reliever, with a fastball that averages 92-93 mph. But he’s made a pretty good career out of inducing weak contact, and for whatever reason that didn’t translate into as many outs this year as it did in the past.

That should make Floro a pretty strong candidate for a bounceback season at age 33. Maybe he won’t, and maybe the Nationals won’t be satisfied with his performance for them. But for $2.25 million, it’s a low-risk gamble. And the reward, if he reverts back to his career norms, will make him worth much more than that.

* Jeter Downs, we hardly knew you.

When the Nationals claimed him off waivers last December, it drew some attention because it wasn’t long ago he was considered one of the best prospects in baseball. The Red Sox insisted he be included in their trade package with the Dodgers for Mookie Betts. Then he flopped in Boston.

He didn’t fare much better in D.C. Or, actually, Rochester, where he spent most of the season. Downs hit only .236/.358/.379 in 51 games at Triple-A. The Nats promoted him only when they needed a healthy backup infielder, and even then, they barely played him.

The insinuation was clear: While Downs was worth taking a flier on, he didn’t do anything while here to merit a more substantial look, or to give club officials reason to want to see more of him.

CJ Abrams’ continued emergence as the shortstop of the present and future also had to play a role in that. The Nationals don’t have room or need for Downs anymore. They did need a 40-man roster spot to add Floro, so that’s why he was the odd man out.