Winter Meetings Day 2: Nats have shot at No. 1 pick in Draft (lottery update)

These Winter Meetings got off to a fast start yesterday with Trea Turner agreeing to an 11-year, $300 million deal with the Phillies and Justin Verlander agreeing to a two-year, $86 million deal with the Mets.

The Nationals will definitely feel the ramifications of two division rivals signing two of the biggest free agents on the market. And although general manager Mike Rizzo isn’t expected to dish out large contracts to other top free agents like Aaron Judge, Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Carlos Rodón and Dansby Swanson, that doesn’t mean this week will be uneventful for the Nats.

Today is the first of two major events for the Nationals this week in San Diego, with the first-ever MLB Draft lottery taking place at 8:30 p.m. ET.

After a 55-107 record this year, the Nats are one of three teams with the highest odds to land the No. 1 overall pick. Along with the Athletics (60-102) and Pirates (62-100), the Nationals have a 16.5 percent chance at the top selection in next year’s draft.

The first six spots in the draft will be determined by the lottery. All 18 non-playoff teams are eligible for the lottery, with declining percentages in reverse order of their records, down to a 0.23 percent chance at scoring the top pick. After that, picks 7-18 will be determined in reverse order of standings. So the lowest the Nats can pick is No. 7 overall, which, at 19 percent, they have a better chance of getting than the No. 1 pick.

Then the 12 playoff clubs will choose in reverse order of their postseason finish to close out the first round.

The selections in rounds 2-20 will be in reverse order of standings, meaning the Nats will have the first pick in each of those rounds, no matter the results of the lottery.

Of course, the Nats can’t be too excited that the first lottery is taking place after they easily finished with the worst record in the majors and in club history. The first selection is obviously ideal. But a top-three pick could also bring in a franchise-altering prospect.

Anything outside of the top three and there will probably be a lot of frustration in the Nationals’ draft room.

Stay tuned throughout the day for instant reactions to any news that comes out of San Diego, Nationals-related or from across the major leagues. If anything breaks, I will be updating this post as soon as possible. And comment along with your thoughts on the Nats, the Winter Meetings or baseball in general!

Update: After major news from the starting pitching market over the past couple of days, we have the first couple of dominoes falling in reliever free agency.

Over the weekend, right-hander Miguel Castro signed a one-year, $3.5 million deal with the Diamondbacks that could be worth up to $9.5 million over two seasons and veteran right-hander Shelby Miller signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with the Dodgers.

Last night, right-hander Carlos Estévez to a two-year, $13.5 million deal with the Angels, which will pay him $6.75 million in each of the next two seasons.

This morning, right-hander Tommy Kahnle reportedly is in agreement on a two-year, $11.5 million contract with the Yankees. The Athletic was first to report the deal.

The Nationals don’t figure to be too involved in the relief pitching market this offseason. But their one priority may be bringing back right-hander Erasmo Ramirez, who was named the Nats’ Pitcher of the Year this season by the local media.

In other news, a couple of outlets are reporting Trea Turner turned down a bigger offer from the Padres in favor of the 11-year, $300 million deal he received for the Phillies. It is thought that Turner preferred returning to the East Coast.

Either way, he’s reunited with former Nationals teammates. He just happened to pick the team that’s a few hours up I-95 instead of the one that’s across the country.

Update II: Another move on the reliever market as left-hander Jarlín García has reportedly agreed to a one-year deal with the Pirates that includes a club option for 2024. MLB.com was the first to report the deal.

García posted a 3.74 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 58 outings with the Giants this year.

Update III: It’s the day of relievers so far. Right-hander Vince Velasquez is reportedly in agreement on a one-year deal with the Pirates. The 30-year-old will reportedly make $3.15 million this year. He’s the second reliever the Pirates have signed today.

Velasquez has a career 4.93 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 183 games (136 starts) over parts of eight seasons with the Astros, Phillies, Padres and White Sox. He had a 4.78 ERA and 1.235 WHIP in 27 appearances (nine starts) in Chicago this year.

ESPN.com was the first to report the agreement and FanSided was the first to report the terms.

Update IV: We have our first position player signing of the day and it’s another former National. But this time, it’s with an American League team.

Josh Bell reportedly is in agreement on a two-year, $33 million deal with the Guardians. The deal reportedly includes an opt-out after the 2023 season.

The New York Post was the first to report the deal.

Bell was a fan favorite in his short time with the Nationals. Acquired on Christmas Eve two years ago in a trade with the Pirates that sent pitchers Wil Crowe and Eddy Yean to Pittsburgh, Bell’s career in D.C. started off sluggish in the early parts of the 2021 season. But he found his form for the second half of the season and had a strong first half of this year.

The switch-hitting first baseman slashed .278/.363/.483 with an .846 OPS, 41 home runs and 145 RBIs over 247 games with the Nats. He also was very active in the D.C. community and the Nats Youth Baseball Academy. He was included with Juan Soto in the blockbuster deal with the Padres at the trade deadline that netted the Nats five prospects and Luke Voit.

Some thought the Nats might sign Bell to an extension during the year to be their first baseman of the future. But his inclusion in the Padres trade proved to be more valuable in bringing back the best possible return.

Bell was high on a lot of fans’ wish lists for a possible reunion this offseason. But now he’ll spend at least next season as a member of the defending AL Central champion Guardians, who visit Nats Park on April 14-16.

Update V: Another starting pitcher is off the board, as left-hander Andrew Heaney has reportedly agreed to terms on a two-year deal with the Rangers that includes an opt-out after next season.

The deal is reportedly worth $25 million through those two years, but it can increase to $37 million with incentives.

The Athletic was the first to report the deal.

Heaney went 4-4 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.087 WHIP in 16 appearances (14 starts) with the Dodgers this year. He only pitched 72 ⅔ innings this season due to multiple trips to the injured list with shoulder issues.

Despite his injury history, Heaney could have been seen as a starting pitcher in the tier of free agents the Nats would have been searching for rotation help. The 31-year-old posted a 2.2 fWAR this year, which is slightly higher than that of Jordan Lyles.

The Washington Post reported earlier today the Nationals have had discussions with Lyles' representation at the Winter Meetings. Also 31 years old, the right-hander posted 1.6 fWAR with the Orioles this year.

The Orioles declined Lyles’ $11 million option last month and signed Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10 million deal yesterday. Lyles went 12-11 with a 4.42 ERA and 1.385 WHIP in 179 innings over 32 starts. Gibson, meanwhile, went 10-8 with a 5.05 ERA and 1.336 WHIP in 167 ⅔ innings over 31 starts with the Phillies.

If the Nats are going to add to their rotation, expect a deal with a pitcher along the lines of Lyles and at the length and price of Heaney or Gibson. Or even less.

Update VI: A former Rookie of the Year and MVP is on the move. Outfielder Cody Bellinger, the 2017 National League Rookie of the Year and the 2019 NL MVP with the Dodgers, has reportedly agreed to a one-year, $17.5 million deal with the Cubs.

The New York Post was first to report the deal and ESPN.com was first with the numbers.

Bellinger was one of the most feared hitters over his first three seasons in the majors, combining to slash .278/.369/.559 with a .928 OPS, 111 home runs and 288 RBIs. But he’s suffered a serious dropoff over the last three seasons.

Since 2020, Bellinger has hit just .203 with a .648 OPS, 41 homers and 134 RBIs. With a projected raise to $18.1 million through arbitration this year, per MLB Trade Rumors, the Dodgers non-tendered the 27-year-old last month.

Now he’ll look to rebound on a one-year deal on the North Side of Chicago.

Update VI: A former Rookie of the Year and MVP is on the move. Outfielder Cody Bellinger, the 2017 National League Rookie of the Year and the 2019 NL MVP with the Dodgers, has reportedly agreed to a one-year, $17.5 million deal with the Cubs.

The New York Post was first to report the deal and ESPN.com was first with the numbers.

Bellinger was one of the most feared hitters over his first three seasons in the majors, combining to slash .278/.369/.559 with a .928 OPS, 111 home runs and 288 RBIs. But he’s suffered a serious dropoff over the last three seasons.

Since 2020, Bellinger has hit just .203 with a .648 OPS, 41 homers and 134 RBIs. With a projected raise to $18.1 million through arbitration this year, per MLB Trade Rumors, the Dodgers non-tendered the 27-year-old last month.

Now he’ll look to rebound on a one-year deal on the North Side of Chicago.

Update VII: The first-ever MLB Draft lottery is in the books, and the Nationals have … the No. 2 overall pick. Even though they finished the season with a major league-worst 55-107 record, they had 16.5 percent chance at the top selection, the same odds as the Athletics and Pirates.

Pittsburgh ended up with the No. 1 pick, while Oakland fell to No. 6. The top 18 picks are:

1. Pirates
2. Nationals
3. Tigers
4. Rangers
5. Twins
6. A’s
7. Reds
8. Royals
9. Rockies
10. Marlins
11. Angels
12. D-backs
13. Cubs
14. Red Sox
15. White Sox
16. Giants
17. Orioles
18. Brewers

Per Mark Zuckerman, who is at the Winter Meetings in San Diego, on Twitter: “Very early buzz is that there are two top players in next summer’s draft: LSU outfielder Dylan Crews and Tennessee right-hander Chase Dollander. Drop-off in talent after that. So, Nationals are pretty happy having No. 2 pick.”

According to the new collective bargaining agreement that implemented the lottery, players cannot draft in the top six in back-to-back years. So the highest the Nats can select in the 2024 MLB Draft will be seventh after selecting Elijah Green with the fifth overall selection this summer.

In major league free agency news this evening, the Giants signed a corner outfielder … but not the one you’re thinking.

Mitch Haniger is reportedly in agreement on a three-year, $43.5 million contract with the Giants. The deal also includes an opt-out after the second year.

ESPN.com was the first to report the news.

Per MLB Trade Rumors, Haniger was projected to get a three-year, $39 million deal this offseason. Injuries limited him to just 57 games this year, but he hit 39 homers with 100 RBIs in 157 games with the Mariners in 2021.

The Giants, meanwhile, are still reportedly pursuing Judge having offered him a contract earlier today. The Yankees are also reportedly still in the running for the AL MVP.

Veteran right-hander Taijuan Walker is reportedly getting a four-year, $72 million deal with the Phillies. The 30-year-old went 12-5 with a 3.49 ERA and 1.195 WHIP in 29 starts with the Mets this year.

The New York Post and FanSided were the first to report the agreement.

Walker was projected to get four years and $52 million by MLB Trade Rumors.