Joe Ross' 2017 season to date has followed a script few, if any, could have seen coming. Even the Nationals front office, which made the decision twice to demote the right-hander to the minors, didn't intend for things to play out like this.
Yes, club officials did plan to have Ross open the regular season at Triple-A, recognizing they wouldn't need a full-time No. 5 starter for several weeks. But once he made his debut April 19 in Atlanta, there was no reason to believe he'd be heading back to Syracuse any time soon.
Yet after only three starts - one of them good, two of them not-so-good - Ross was demoted. And for the last three weeks, he has been pitching not in the majors but back in the International League, trying to figure out how to right his wayward ship and earn a return trip to D.C.
Tonight, Ross makes his return. Rather than stick with Jacob Turner as their fifth starter, the Nationals are re-summoning the guy they intended to hold this role all along. He'll take the mound this evening for the opener of a three-game series against the Mariners.
What can reasonably be expected from this start? Or any subsequent ones to come? Good luck trying to figure that one out.
It's been difficult enough trying to figure out what exactly has been going on with Ross this season. Why has he made only three big league starts while the rest of his rotation mates have made nine? Why did the Nationals send him down in the first place?
That has proven to be a more complicated question than anyone might have anticipated, but here are some thoughts on the subject ...
After pitching quite well in his big league season debut - three runs in seven innings against the Braves - Ross labored his next two times on the mound. He gave up five runs in 4 2/3 innings against the Rockies (albeit at Coors Field). Then he gave up five runs in four innings against the Mets.
Thing is, Ross' demotion may have had less to do with the actual results and more with the way he looked to the naked eye. He was getting hit hard. He was having trouble getting the ball down in the zone. His fastball velocity wasn't where it should be.
Given the fact he missed 2 1/2 months last year with a shoulder injury, it was natural to wonder if Ross might be hurt again. He insisted he was not. But rather than let him try to sort out his troubles in the majors, the Nats decided it needed to be done in the minors.
The club's instructions for Ross were clear: Fix your mechanics. Team officials noticed his arm slot had dropped, which may account for the lack of downward movement on his sinker and perhaps the drop in velocity. His shoulder may be healthy, but he looked like he was still compensating for something.
"Physically, he's 100 percent," general manager Mike Rizzo said last week. "He's been 100 percent since last year. But psychologically, that's what we're trying to work on. It's muscle memory and trying to get consistency at the release point. Especially when you're starting to get fatigued. You saw in that 50-pitch area, we saw that the arm slot drifted a little bit down. That's the hump we're trying to get over."
Ross made three starts in his most recent stint at Syracuse. He was tagged for seven runs his first time out, then showed signs of improvement. He gave up three runs in six innings. Then only one run in seven innings.
Whether that upward trend continues now that he's back in the big leagues remains to be seen. Ross won't be facing the Buffalo Bisons tonight; he'll be facing the Seattle Mariners.
The Nationals don't know if Ross will recapture the final spot in the rotation and hold onto it the rest of the way. They'd certainly love for that to happen. But he'll have to earn it.
The story of Ross' 2017 season has followed an odd script. But there are plenty of blank pages yet to be filled out. Perhaps this story will have a happy ending after all.
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