The final countdown to spring training has arrived, and so we're spending the final days of the offseason counting down the Nationals' top storylines of the spring. We continue today with Dusty Baker's batting order decisions ...
We know which eight players will be in the Nationals' opening day lineup against the Marlins come April 3 (barring injuries or other unexpected developments, of course). We don't, however, know in what order Dusty Baker will bat them.
And the manager himself may not even know yet. Which will make lineup construction something to watch this spring.
Baker has no shortage of options, largely stemming from the fact he has several regulars with both experience and skills that translate to multiple spots in the lineup.
The biggest question probably involves the No. 1 and No. 2 slots.
Trea Turner may on the surface seem like the no-brainer choice to lead off, and certainly his success batting first during the second half of the 2016 season - a .341 batting average, .367 on-base percentage and 32 stolen bases in 66 games as the Nationals' leadoff man - would suggest there's no reason to move him from that spot.
But here's the catch: New center fielder Adam Eaton has been an excellent leadoff hitter during his career (.285 batting average, .359 on-base percentage, 45 stolen bases and 30 triples in 448 games) as well. And given the fact Eaton and projected Nos. 3 and 4 hitters Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy all bat left-handed, there may be temptation to split them up and have Eaton at the top of the lineup.
True, that might deprive Turner of some basestealing opportunities - you typically don't want to run in front of your best sluggers - but keep in mind that Turner is far more than a pure speed guy. His power numbers were staggeringly good last season; his .567 slugging percentage was fifth-best among all National League batters with at least 300 plate appearances, higher than sluggers Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Yoenis Cespedes and Corey Seager.
Why not try to take advantage of Turner's power by giving him more at-bats with runners on base?
Then again, the Nationals have another everyday regular with a strong track record batting second: Jayson Werth. The veteran outfielder opened last season batting fifth or sixth and struggled (he batted .217/.273/.414 in those two slots). Once Baker moved him up to the 2-hole, Werth rediscovered himself, batting .259/.363/.418.
At this stage of his career - he turns 38 in May - Werth profiles better as a table-setter than a run-producer. And his ability to work the count and reach base at a high rate are tailor-made for the No. 2 spot in a lineup.
So where does that leave Baker? Unless he wants to bat Turner or Eaton down in the order, or push Harper or Murphy below the cleanup spot, Werth is going to have to return to a middle-of-the-order position, most likely sixth behind Anthony Rendon and ahead of Ryan Zimmerman.
We don't know yet how this will all play out. But here's a fairly safe bet: Baker is probably going to use the next six-plus weeks to try out various combinations before settling on the lineup we ultimately see come April.
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