Bell trade can't be Nats' only big move of the winter

The initial reaction to the Josh Bell trade was overwhelmingly positive. A Nationals club that desperately needed to acquire a big bat did so without spending gobs of money and without dealing away top prospects. What's not to like about that?

Well, as with all trades, it's best not to jump to any conclusions just yet. Let's see how this plays out. There's a good chance Bell proves to be everything the Nationals need him to be, and that neither Wil Crowe nor Eddy Yean amounts to much with the Pirates.

There's also a realistic chance Bell is a disappointment in D.C. and one or both of the pitching prospects pans out in Pittsburgh, leaving the Nats regretting the trade.

Point is, Bell is not a sure thing. His stats over a five-year career are solid: a .261 average, .349 on-base percentage and .814 OPS. But only one of those five seasons was exceptional: 2019, when he clubbed 37 homers, drove in 116 runs and boasted a .936 OPS.

That 2019 season, though, really can be broken into two distinct halves surrounding the All-Star Game. During the first half, Bell was among the most productive hitters in the majors. In 88 games, he hit a staggering 27 homers with 84 RBIs, 30 doubles, a .302 batting average and 1.024 OPS.

During the second half, he was average at best. In 55 games, he hit 10 homers with 32 RBIs, batted .233 and produced a .780 OPS.

And then Bell followed that up with his disappointing 2020 season. Combine those 57 games with his final 55 games of 2019, and across that lengthy stretch he batted .229 with a .724 OPS, 18 homers and 54 RBIs. That's troubling.

Also troubling: Bell's performance in the field. If you haven't heard, he's not a good first baseman. Of the 33 first basemen who have logged at least 1,000 innings over the last three seasons, Bell ranks last in FanGraphs.com's overall defensive metric. He's second-to-last with minus-32 Defensive Runs Saved.

Does defense really matter at first base? Well, yeah to an extent. FanGraphs rates Bell as the majors' 13th-best offensive first baseman since 2018, but he's only 21st in WAR because of his defense. Even with that dominant performance in 2019, he totaled only 2.5 WAR. He's never topped 1.0 in any other season.

This isn't meant to pour a huge bucket of ice water on the trade. Bell has the potential to be a very important part of the Nationals lineup for at least the next two seasons. It may be too much to ask for a duplication of his 2019 stat line, but 25-30 homers, 90-plus RBIs and an .850-plus OPS are all realistic goals.

And it's also worth noting Bell has a sterling reputation. He's a hard worker. He's popular in the clubhouse. And he cares about the community, as evidenced by his nomination for this year's Roberto Clemente Award. (If the Pirates are nominating you for the Clemente Award, you're really doing something right.)

But the Bell acquisition alone isn't going to propel the Nats back into World Series contention. They're going to need a cheap, capable defensive replacement for him, preferably someone who hits lefties well. (By god, that sounds like Ryan Zimmerman's walk-up music!) And they're going to need to keep looking to upgrade at a corner outfield spot and possibly third base as well. Or catcher, if they're willing to go big and sign J.T. Realmuto and pay Yan Gomes $6 million to start only 30 games.

If Bell (whose 2021 salary figures to fall somewhere in the $6 million-$7 million range) is by far the biggest move Mike Rizzo makes this winter, the Nationals could be in trouble. If, however, he's just one of several savvy pickups by a general manager known for making savvy pickups, the Nats might just be back in business.