Green needs health and experience to develop elite tools

PROSPECT REVIEW: ELIJAH GREEN

Age on opening day 2024: 20

How acquired: Drafted No. 5 overall in 2022 from IMG Academy in Bradenton, Fla.

Ranking: No. 5 per MLB Pipeline, No. 5 per Baseball America

MLB ETA: 2026
* Projected by MLB Pipeline

Signing bonus: $6.5 million

2023 levels: Rookie-level Florida Complex League and Single-A Fredericksburg

2023 stats: 83 G, 361 PA, 303 AB, 45 R, 66 H, 14 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 39 RBIs, 31 SB, 5 CS, 52 BB, 150 SO, .218 AVG, .336 OBP, .327 SLG, .663 OPS

Quotable: “I see elite defense. I see elite baserunning, basestealing. His exit velocities are terrific. And we’ve got to get past the contact part of it. A lot of it is pitch selection, and that’s tough for a lot of young players. It was something James Wood went through out of high school, and we’ve had several players in the past that have gone through it. But he’s such a superb, elite athlete and his skill set is so great, I’m not worried at all about it. He’s a young player at a (Single-A) league, and he’s taking his lumps and he’s learning what to swing at and what not to swing at. Right now, he’s swinging at too many bad pitches. So that’s something we have to work on.” – Mike Rizzo

2023 analysis: Green entered this year with very little experience. He was only 18 years old when the Nationals selected him with the fifth-overall pick in last year’s draft. Then he only played in 12 Florida Complex League games to get his first taste of professional baseball.

So what we were going to see from him entering 2023 was a bit unknown. We knew his profile: An elite, yet raw athlete with speed, power and a strong arm. He has the ability to hit to all fields but is also prone to a lot of strikeouts.

That is pretty much what we saw from the Nats’ No. 5 prospect this season, during which he was also hampered by an injury.

Green was limited to just 83 total games (75 with Fredericksburg) due to a sprained left wrist, which kept him sidelined for nearly six weeks between June and August. After eight rehab games in the FCL, he returned to play in Fredericksburg’s last 17 games before season’s end.

When he did play, Green flashed his athletic skill set that scouts have touted since before the 2022 draft, both for better and for worse.

The good: He stole 30 bases in 35 attempts with the FredNats. He also played 607 innings in center field with 153 putouts, seven outfield assists and only three errors for a .982 fielding percentage.

The bad: He struck out 139 times in 332 plate appearances, a 42 percent strikeout rate. He also only collected 18 extra-base hits with the FredNats, including just four home runs. Although those few times he did connect, they were loud and went far.

2024 outlook: Hopefully when we look back on Green’s 2023 season, we can chalk it up to inexperience and injury (although he struggled even before he sprained his wrist).

Green’s tools are there. He’s just incredibly young and raw still.

Entering next season fully healthy, the focus for the soon-to-be 20-year-old should be simple: contact, contact and more contact.

The Nationals, of course, would like to see less strikeouts, which they knew were coming. But they can live with them if Green drastically improves upon the .306 slugging percentage he posted with Fredericksburg. If that happens, then he ideally would rise from Fredericksburg to possibly Double-A Harrisburg throughout the course of next year, like some of his fellow top prospects did this year.

Scouts and some within the organization have warned about giving up on Green too soon. People may want to see more signs of improvement because he was the No. 5 overall pick. But he’s still young and still possesses the tools that made him one of the best high school prospects in his draft class and the top-ranked athlete.

If given time and proper development, those tools could help him become a superstar down the line.