How the Winter Meetings are different for the Nationals

SAN DIEGO - The lobby at the Manchester Grand Hyatt is teeming with executives and media members. Day One of baseball's Winter Meetings is under way, even if many of the participants are a little bleary-eyed from a day of cross-country travel and the interruptions of their usual sleep patterns.

Some years, lots of action takes place at the Winter Meetings. Some years, eh, not so much. But that does little to satiate the rabid fans 2,253 miles away in Washington, D.C., who have tons of questions and - to date - precious few answers.

Will the Nationals make a trade? Will they sign a free agent? Will they trade someone to open up a natural spot that allows them to sign a free agent? Who's going to play second base? What will the back end of the bullpen look like? Will the Nats find a bench slugger that will strike fear in the opposing dugout in the late innings? Exactly what is general manager Mike Rizzo doing up in his suite?

All good questions, and some of them may be resolved by the time we leave early Thursday afternoon.

But it's important to remember one thing: The Nationals are no longer an also-ran, a team that has to drum up headlines with trades and signings of borderline importance to mask their deficiencies heading into a season that's doomed before the first pitch is thrown.

The tide has changed. Rizzo now has to figure out which of his marquee guys who will be free agents after 2015 - pitchers Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister and shortstop Ian Desmond - he wants to ink long-term. He has to figure out what they're worth on the open market, what they would bring in trade value, how their potential salaries could open the way for (or hamstring him from making) additional moves. He has to think about the guys who will be in their walk years in 2016, 2017 and beyond. He now has to make difficult, even painful decisions, on which may walk.

It's not all about money, but it really is. If you've got one guy making $8 million a year, you'd better have a decent, young player on your roster making the major league minimum to help balance him out on the ledger. Or have unlimited financial resources. And while the Lerner family's pockets are deep, even they have their limits. It's a balancing act that never ends.

Back when the Nationals were losing 100 games a season and collecting back-to-back No. 1 overall picks in the First-Year Player Draft, they had so many holes to plug that those minor moves meant a little more. That's no longer the case.

With a team that's won two National League East titles in three years, winning the most games in the NL on each occasion, the moves could be more subtle or more flashy. But the tenor is different because the Nats are a much better team. With success comes different challenges, not all of them on the field. The Nats are no longer hunting as much as they're being hunted, and Rizzo has to figure out the appropriate response.

#winningteamproblems

Moves aren't made with only the immediate future in mind. Contracts have to be parsed on the dual bases of how they fit into today's financial landscape and how they might fit in two, five or seven years. Today's overpriced deal could look like a relative bargain two or three years down the road. Yes, today's front office executives have to equal part mathematician and soothsayer. On winning teams, the smallest of moves can potentially pay the biggest of dividends. And the smallest of guesses gone wrong could have dire consequences.

Honestly, there's no timetable. It's a cyclical process that doesn't really end.

Rizzo may or may not make a big splash this week. Or this week's activity may fall into the category of groundwork laid to future completion. The calendar dictates that all eyes in the game are focused on GMs this week; but it can't make the front offices act.