Most significant stories of 2024: Emergence of young starters

We’ve reached the final week of the year, so it’s time to look back at the Nationals’ most significant stories of 2024. We continue the series today with the emergence of the young starters in the rotation …

Under Mike Rizzo, the Nationals have always built their roster around starting pitching.

“You can never have enough starting pitching,” the long-time general manager routinely says when discussing his roster.

Just look at the additions he’s made over the years: Drafting Stephen Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick in 2009, trading for Gio González, and signing Max Scherzer, Doug Fister, Patrick Corbin and Aníbal Sánchez.

But since starting this rebuild in 2021 by trading Scherzer, the Nats have turned their focus into acquiring and developing young starting pitchers to build a new dominant rotation.

Josiah Gray was the first to be acquired via trade in the Scherzer/Trea Turner deal with the Dodgers. MacKenzie Gore followed a year later as part of the historic package of prospects the Nats got in return from the Padres for Juan Soto. And DJ Herz arrived the next year in a deadline deal with the Cubs for Jemier Candelario.

Those three joined a system that already included recent draft picks Cade Cavalli, Mitchell Parker and Jake Irvin, with the Nationals hoping some combination of the six could make up most, if not all, of their starting rotation of the future.

Well, this year, that vision started to come into focus.

Gray and Cavalli missed most of the year due to injuries. But the other four made significant strides in 2024 to give a hint that the Nats could have another strong, young rotation on their hands.

Gore, who figures to be the Nats’ ace of the future, showed flashes of that potential this year, while also going through some struggles. Through his first 11 starts, he sported a 2.91 ERA with 11 strikeouts per nine innings, putting himself into the conversation to be an All-Star selection.

Then things turned south in the middle of the summer when his velocity also went down. The young lefty gave up a lot of contact and free passes. Over eight starts, he had a 7.71 ERA with 75 batters reaching base in only 35 innings.

But he bounced back to finish stronger than he started. With his velocity back up, he pitched to a 1.55 ERA and 0.910 WHIP over his last seven starts. All in all, he finished the year with a 3.90 ERA (the best since 2019 by any National who made at least 20 starts) and 181 strikeouts (also most by any Nats pitcher since 2019).

“I thought it was solid,” Gore said. “A career high in innings. A career high in strikeouts. I still think there’s some room for improvement. But we went through a tough stretch, and we were able to get through it.”

Irvin may have taken the biggest step of any Nats starter this year to raise the bar of his expectations.

A 2018 fourth-round pick out of Oklahoma, the right-hander was never considered a top pitching prospect in the Nats system. But after working his way up the minor league ranks and earning his major league debut in 2023, he entered this season looking to prove he belonged in a big league rotation.

He did that and much more.

Irvin’s first half of the season was nothing short of spectacular. Over 18 starts, he had a 2.80 ERA and 1.000 WHIP with 12 quality starts. He also was dominant on a handful of occasions, with zero or one run allowed and eight or more strikeouts recorded with two or fewer walks issued three times in the first half. That was capped off with an incredible performance on July 4 against the Mets with eight scoreless innings of one-hit ball.

Unfortunately, Irvin fell into a slump for much of the second half. Over his final 15 starts, he went 3-8 with a 6.50 ERA and 1.457 WHIP. He finished 10-14 with a 4.41 ERA and 1.199 WHIP over 33 starts.

“From a personal standpoint, the second half was not what I expect from myself,” he said. “It was disappointing, for sure. But there’s a lot to learn from, and a lot to build off of. Looking at the big picture, I’m definitely excited for the things I’ve learned, what I can build on, how I can get better learning from a lot of stuff this year.”

Parker was this year’s version of Irvin in 2023. A not-so-highly touted prospect who earned the right to make his major league debut when the Nats needed a starter. And he pitched well enough from the moment he joined the Nats to stay in the majors for the rest of the season.

The 2020 fifth-round pick started his big league career by dominating the Dodgers in Los Angeles over five strong innings to become the franchise’s first rookie starter to win his debut since Strasburg. He then tossed seven scoreless innings against the Astros and the Nats knew they had something.

Parker allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his first 12 starts while averaging 5 ⅔ innings per outing. Through his first 12 starts, he was 5-3 with a 3.06 ERA and 1.079 WHIP.

Like most rookies, he struggled to finish the season that way. Over his final 17 starts, he went just 2-7 with a 5.29 ERA. But that wasn’t enough to derail what ended up being a very positive year.

“To be able to get that many innings this year is awesome,” Parker said. “Like we said when I got here, I just wanted to make every start I can and stay healthy, get as many innings as possible. So being able to do it is huge.”

The Nats were hoping Herz would make his major league debut during his first full season in the organization. But not many people could have predicted he would finish the season with 19 starts as one of the better arms in the rotation.

The lefty was a bit erratic over his first two starts. But his third start was jaw-dropping: six scoreless innings of one-hit ball with 13 strikeouts and zero walks against the Marlins, a performance that drew comparisons to Strasburg’s debut in 2010. Herz had another 10-strikeout, zero-walk outing a few weeks later against the Mets, which gave the Nats confidence they got the right guy in their deal with the Cubs.

Herz limped into the All-Star break and was optioned back down to Triple-A Rochester, not due to performance but because the Nationals wanted to give his arm a break. He returned in late July and finished the season strong, with a 2.76 ERA over 10 starts while averaging more than a strikeout per inning to close out his impressive rookie campaign.

“I’m proud of myself getting through this first one,” Herz said. “It was really good. I’m just thankful to get through the season healthy and have another full season down.”

All four starters will enter next season with high hopes of improving upon their impressive 2024 seasons. And although Gray will miss next year, Cavalli will be back in consideration for a rotation spot.

The Nationals are still looking to perhaps add a front-line starting pitcher this offseason, whether via free agency or trade. But regardless of any more additions, they have to be excited about what this young rotation showed this past year and its potential in the years to come.