Nats have squandered chance to make up ground this week

NEW YORK - When Nationals players held their closed-door meeting following a July 4 loss to the Red Sox, they found themselves one game under .500. They were in third place in the National League East, seven games behind the first-place Braves, 5 1/2 games behind the second-place Phillies.

All agreed it was time to get serious, time to start making up some ground.

As luck would have it, the schedule was about to get more favorable, as well. After a difficult stretch that included games with the Yankees, Phillies and Red Sox, the Nationals were going to close out the season's first half with 11 straight games against the Marlins, Pirates and Mets.

Atlanta, meanwhile, had a difficult stretch to navigate, following up a series with the Yankees with more against the Brewers, Blue Jays and Diamondbacks. The Braves have since gone 2-6 and have now lost eight of their last 10.

The Phillies had an easier slate coming up - Pirates, Mets, Orioles, Marlins - but they didn't exactly catch fire, going 6-4.

Point is, the Nationals have had an opportunity to make up some significant ground over the last week and a half. And they haven't done it.

Saturday's 7-4 loss to the Mets leaves the Nats a pedestrian 5-5 during this critical stretch before the All-Star break. They have managed to pick up two games on the Braves (who are now in second place) but they've lost a game to the Phillies (now in first place).

Ten games later, the Nats are right back where they started. They're a game under .500, 6 1/2 games back in the division.

On one hand, they're fortunate the Phillies and Braves haven't buried them during this stretch. On the other hand, they've wasted a perfect opportunity to make this a true, three-team race and put some pressure on the less-experienced contenders before going into the break.

If they win today at Citi Field, the Nationals will enter the second half of the season right at the .500 mark. They'll be either 5 1/2 or 6 1/2 games back. That's not an insurmountable deficit, but neither is it a cakewalk, especially with two teams in front of them that need to be leapfrogged.

"My concerns are us," manager Davey Martinez said Saturday after being told the Phillies and Braves each had been shut out. "We just need to take care of us and start winning some ballgames consistently. That's the big thing. If we play the way we're capable of playing, we'll make up that ground."

True, but will they have enough time to make up all the ground?

It's easy to look at the current situation and assume the Nationals have plenty of season left. The All-Star break is just arriving now, right?

Here's the problem: The All-Star Game is being held on its latest date ever. And the regular season began on its earliest date ever.

The season is far more complete than it traditionally has been at this point. The Nationals today play their 96th game. That means they only have 66 games left. They've already played 59 percent of the season.

If you believe 90 wins are necessary to win the division, or even secure one of the National League's two wild card spots, then you must concede the Nationals will need to go 43-24 the rest of the way. That's a .642 winning percentage, which equates to a 104-win pace over a full season. That's a lot to ask of a team that has played .500 ball for the last 3 1/2 months.

Perhaps it won't take 90 wins to capture the NL East this year. The Phillies are currently on a 91-win pace, with the Braves on an 89-win pace. It wouldn't be a dramatic drop-off for both teams to cool down and finish somewhere in the 86-to-88-win range.

To get to 87 wins, the Nationals need to go 40-27. That's a .597 winning percentage, which equates to a 97-win pace. That's still a big turnaround, but it seems more doable.

But that's where we're at now, folks. In order for the Nats to have a chance to make the postseason in 2018, they're going to have to win at nearly a 60 percent rate the rest of the way, and hope several other teams win at a lower rate than that.

Fangraphs still gives them a 53.8 percent chance of making the playoffs, a 40.5 percent chance of winning the division.

Are you willing to take that bet?