Last night, situational hitting once again was a focus by the discerning eye as to why the Nationals offense sputtered. The lack of execution in productive outs, and hitting with runners in scoring position was beyond poor. In fact the RISP hitting finished at 1-for-9 and there were no productive outs made in the game by the Nationals, even though three times they had a leadoff man on second base and no outs to start an inning.
We saw it right from the beginning of the game when Trea Turner walked and promptly stole second base. We saw it with leadoff doubles. We also saw a total failure by the subsequent batter to at least make a productive out, which was defined jointly by the Elias Sports Bureau and ESPN in that particular case to move any runner up a base with no outs. There are actually stats kept on productive outs in all defined situations, and the Washington Nationals are above the 30 percent league average at 36 percent.
There is also the situational hitting stat particularly to keep track of hitters moving up a runner who is on second base with no outs. League average is 54 percent and the Nationals are at 57 percent, however last night the Nationals were 0-for-3 in that stat. That "0-fer" was possibly the difference in tying in the game or even winning it if the batters did their job, which is hitting behind the runner at second base - meaning to the right of second base - to advance the runner or even bunt him over.
Daniel Murphy led off the eighth inning with a double, and the Nationals were in business trailing by one run. Bryce Harper stepped to the plate and had to be thinking about driving the ball to right field. The opposing pitcher has to think about thwarting that and throw outside pitches so Harper won't pull the ball to the right side. Harper unfortunately tapped a grounder back to the pitcher and for some inexplicable reason, the veteran runner on second base, Murphy, broke for third base. The pitcher turned and looked Murphy back to second base and threw him out. It was possibly the worst case situation other than a double play. Harper didn't do his job, and Murphy certainly did not do his job.
Execution of 'small ball' was a failure last night. The Nationals are above league average as mentioned, and it could surprise many that Danny Espinosa has been the most successful in moving the runners over and he has done it by bunt, HBP, walk, groundballs, and flyouts. His success rate is 72 percent. Most Nats players hover right near that 54-55 percent success rate. Chris Heisey, Stephen Drew, Michael A. Taylor and Turner are all poor in this category, although the sample sizes are all at or below five chances. Harper, just like last night, needs improvement in this part of situational hitting as he is now 8-for-17 or 47 percent in this important statistic and Harper sat through spring training in 2014 when situational hitting was an emphasis.
Then-manager Matt Williams pledged the Nationals would improve in getting runners to third base when there were no outs, and a runner at second base. Harper was there in attendance when that was covered and practiced in spring training. Truthfully, the emphasis by Williams' 2014 team did not help, as league average in 2014 was 55 percent and the Nationals finished in that stat at 50 percent which was worse than the 55 percent success rate of Davey Johnson's 2013 team, and Harper was even worse at 29 percent in 2014 and Espinosa was at 31 percent in 2014.
Last night could have just been a tired team that did not execute, because like BABIP, even productive outs are a split second or a millimeter away from the difference of good and bad results in baseball because it is a game of inches. Harper knew the situation last night, and put the ball in play, and probably was trying to pull the ball to the right side and just could not get it past the pitcher. It happens.
Great teams do the small things that add up to big things.
Steve Mears blogs about the Nationals for Talk Nats. Follow the blog on Twitter: @TalkNats2. His thoughts on the Nationals will appear here as part of MASNsports.com's season-long initiative of welcoming guest bloggers to our site. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.
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