What have we learned about the Nats after one month?

DENVER – What was the secret to the Nationals’ series win over the weekend in San Francisco? A reinvigorated lineup? Effective starting pitching? Lockdown relief work?

Or was it the turning of the calendar hanging in the manager’s office?

“April, the pressure’s always to start off really good,” Davey Martinez explained Sunday. “Everybody wants to start off good, right? Sometimes it doesn’t happen and you put added pressure (on yourself). Now it’s: Hey, May 1! May 1! Go have some fun! Go play baseball!”

Maybe that had nothing to do with it. Nevertheless, the season’s first month is no over, and we have indeed shifted to May baseball, which does feel different than April baseball. We’re starting to get a better sense of the team, who’s having a good season, who isn’t and who still has time either to turn it around or fall apart.

So let’s take this opportunity, before the Nationals’ road trip continues tonight against the Rockies, to consider what we’ve seen so far, and what it might mean for the rest of the season …

* The rotation as a whole is a problem, but there have been bright spots
Nationals starters own a collective 6.04 ERA, which is awful. (Though not as awful as the Reds’ truly awful 8.03 ERA.) But let’s acknowledge how well Josiah Gray has pitched so far. The young right-hander is 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA, striking out 31 batters over 26 innings. He’s also allowing only one homer per nine innings, cutting his rate more than in half from last year. Joan Adon (1-4, 7.33 ERA) doesn’t have good numbers, but there have been legitimate moments along the way that make you see what the Nats see in him (most notably his 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Diamondbacks). Erick Fedde (1-2, 6.00 ERA) has given up two runs in three of his four starts. Even Patrick Corbin (0-4, 8.69 ERA) looked really good last time out against the Marlins.

* Josh Bell is one of the most productive hitters in the league
How good has the Nats first baseman been? His .457 on-base percentage leads the National League. His .351 batting average ranks fifth. His .569 slugging percentage ranks ninth. His .963 OPS ranks sixth. Since May 13, 2021, when he began turning his season around, he owns a .901 OPS (ninth-best in the NL over that span). Bell is hitting from both sides of the plate (.383 average left-handed, .300 right-handed). He’s delivering in the clutch (.385 with runners in scoring position). He’s hitting everything, all the time.

* Nelson Cruz is not one of the most productive hitters in the league
Cruz’s .456 OPS rank 84th out of 85 qualifying hitters in the NL. (Joey Votto, shockingly, ranks last at .413.) And this hasn’t been a case of cold weather turning home runs into outs at the warning track. Cruz is making the vast majority of his outs on the ground. He’s chasing pitches out of the zone. His timing is off. He’s just not hitting the ball with any authority. And it’s not as if he’s historically a slow starter. Cruz’s April OPS the last four years: 1.025, .864, .960, 1.037. Is he bound to figure it out and be the slugger the Nationals thought they were getting for $15 million? Maybe. But it’s also entirely possible Father Time has finally caught up with the 41-year-old. He needs to show us some signs of life soon.

* The bullpen isn’t bad but misses Doolittle and Harvey
It’s perhaps not as good as it looked a couple weeks ago, but a 4.02 collective ERA isn’t terrible. Tanner Rainey (0.00 ERA, 1.000 WHIP), Kyle Finnegan (1.269 WHIP), Andres Machado (2.45 ERA, 1.182 WHIP), Erasmo Ramírez (2.70 ERA, 0.900 WHIP) and Victor Arano (1.235 WHIP, 11.9 strikeouts per nine innings) have been solid. And of course Sean Doolittle (0.00 ERA, 0.188 WHIP) and Hunter Harvey (0.00 ERA, 0.750 WHIP) were outstanding before suffering arm injuries. There is stuff to like here. It would help if the Nationals held a few more leads late in games so we could see how these guys are at closing out wins.

* Yadiel Hernandez can hit
The 34-year-old outfielder has been on a tear of late and enters the week batting .340//369/.509. But really this is just a continuation of his 2021 season. Combine those two together, and over 346 plate appearances Hernandez is batting .284/.335/.429. That’s solid. At this point, with Cruz and Lane Thomas struggling, there’s every reason for Hernandez to be in the lineup most days, whether in left field or as designated hitter.

* Soto will be fine, but will Ruiz?
Juan Soto has looked out of sync at the plate. He has driven in only one runner that wasn’t himself. He’s batting only .262. And yet, let’s not lose sight of the fact he still owns a .415 on-base percentage and .867 OPS. He’s going to be just fine in the long run. But can we say the same about Keibert Ruiz? The young catcher looked really good in spring training, then started the season with a flourish, batting .320 through his first six games. Since then, he’s hitting only .196 with a .479 OPS. That’s concerning. Ruiz’s best still is his ability to make contact, but the trouble is he’s swinging at too many pitches that don’t give him a chance to make good contact. A more aggressive approach, seeking first-pitch fastballs over the plate, might help get him turned around.