What to make of Tanner Roark trade speculation

LAS VEGAS - The Winter Meetings are all about rumors. They dominate the lobby conversation day and night at the Mandalay Bay Casino and Resort. They fuel all sorts of media speculation. And they're discussed each day when reporters meet with general managers to get an update on their team's machinations.

This morning brought some chatter n Yahoo! Sports about the Nationals shopping right-hander Tanner Roark, who seems an unusual trade candidate considering that general manager Mike Rizzo keeps talking about improving a rotation that just added left-hander Patrick Corbin on a six-year, $140 million deal to create a formidable top three starters with righties Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg.

But is the fact that Roark's name popped up in trade talks really a surprise? He has had two straight down seasons and is expected to earn $9.8 million through salary arbitration, according to MLBTradeRumors.com. Over the past two offseasons, he has avoided arbitration, signing for $4.315 million in 2017 and $6.475 in 2018.

The Nationals had high hopes for Roark, who went 16-10 with a 2.83 ERA in 2016. When he followed that up with a 13-11 mark and 4.67 ERA in 2017, the Nats were at least happy to have a workhorse who could post for 30 starts and keep his team in a ballgame.

But Roark's 2018 stats showed that he's definitely more of a back-end rotation piece than solid middle-of-the-rotation starter. He won only nine games last season, led the National League with 15 losses and posted a 4.34 ERA. Run support was sometimes a problem - Roark got two or fewer runs of support in 12 of his 31 starts - but he also got 10, 11 and 25 runs in three other outings.

Mostly, Roark struggled with his command, specifically his sinker, which didn't get enough sink for much of the season, contributing to a /.268.342/.432 opponent slash line in the first half. He gave up a career-high 24 home runs - eight of them on the first pitch of an at-bat and nine more when he was behind in the count.

A midseason adjustment suggested by then-teammate Brandon Kintzler helped Roark rebound. After his ERA reached its high point of 4.87 following a July 13 start, Roark went 6-1 with a 1.61 ERA and held foes to a .204/.231/.284 slash over his next seven starts.

When Roark is on, he's just the kind of bulldog that eats innings and makes things tough on the opposition. When he's struggled in the past couple of seasons, he struggles mightily. You just don't know which pitcher is going to show up, which may be one reason why the Nats might be dangling him. He's in his last year before free agency, and paying almost $10 million for a guy who may or may not produce might not fit into the budget Rizzo has established.

Baseball is a dollars-and-cents business, and Roark's projected salary may have gotten to the point where the Nats are wondering whether their financial commitment is too high. This scenario works, but only if the Nationals have a firm idea of someone better - and more cost-effective - to take his spot in the rotation. I'm not sure that's the case, and a couple of executives I've spoken with have their doubts, too.

In other words, if the Nats aren't sold on either Joe Ross or Erick Fedde as the No. 5 starter, why would they create an additional hole in the rotation by dealing their current No. 4? That's not the way your improve your starting staff, and that's something Rizzo is always trying to do.

But the Nationals would also be selling low on Roark. It's much harder to trade a guy who hasn't produced, and if you can deal him, the return isn't anywhere near as substantial as for a player on the upswing. Roark's last two seasons and the amount of money he'll earn through arbitration cast doubts whether he'd bring back anything of significance. Of course, Rizzo has surprised before.

Sometimes at the Winter Meetings, rumors have traction. Sometimes they're just rumors. And sometimes the truth lies somewhere in between.