Answering center field question and explaining Burch's Rule 5 status

Among the many questions to land in the recent mailbag was one that I put aside to give it a little more thought and provide a more expansive response.

Who will get more starts in center field next season, Cedric Mullins or Colton Cowser?

The immediate response is Mullins because he’s exclusively a center fielder and Cowser is first in line for left. Mullins made 121 starts in the middle this year and Cowser made 36 in center, 91 in left and six in right.

That’s advantage Mullins. It should be sustained next season.

I’d still expect Mullins to be the primary center fielder in 2025 after the Orioles tendered him a contract, with MLBTradeRumors.com projecting his salary at $8.7 million. He is a year away from free agency, with 2023 first-round draft pick Enrique Bradfield Jr. waiting in the wings after climbing to Double-A over the summer.

Where the gap closes is the games when the opponent starts a left-hander. Mullins hit .196 with a .506 OPS in 63 games against southpaws. Cowser, the runner-up for American League Rookie of the Year, appeared in 80 games and hit .224 with a .661 OPS.

Cowser ranked third in games played at 153, six fewer than Gunnar Henderson and two fewer than Anthony Santander, who’s a free agent. Mullins was fifth with 147, a year after multiple adductor/groin strains limited him to 116.

The Orioles need a right-handed bat, whether by re-signing the switch-hitting Santander or bringing in someone from the outside. Austin Slater was an extra outfielder who played against lefties, but he signed with the White Sox. The Orioles might need a replacement for him, as well, because Heston Kjerstad doesn’t possess the same skill set.

They brought back Daz Cameron, who’s on the 40-man roster, but there should be competition.

The 26-man roster allows for 13 position players, and early projections have the Orioles carrying at least seven infielders – Henderson, Ryan Mountcastle, Ryan O’Hearn, Jordan Westburg, Jackson Holliday, Ramón Urías  and Jorge Mateo. Two catchers, with the identity of the backup pending, raises the total to nine and leaves only four outfielders.

Could Mateo get more than the two starts and four appearances in center that he’s logged in each of the past two seasons? The Padres put him in left for five games in 2021.

Anyway, going back to the original question, I expect Mullins to get more starts in center than Cowser.

* I wrote yesterday that Roster Resource lists 36 Orioles as eligible for the Rule 5 draft because they aren’t on the 40-man roster. Reliever Tyler Burch is among them, but it should be noted that he’d be exposed in the Triple-A phase.

This is a big difference because he wouldn’t have to stay on a team’s roster for an entire season. He’d just be assigned to an affiliate.

Burch remains on Double-A Bowie’s roster, which keeps him in minor league status in the Rule 5. He began the season on the injured list following arthroscopic surgery to remove bone chips from his right elbow and allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings with High-A Aberdeen on a rehab assignment before making two appearances with the Baysox and four with the Surprise Saguaros in the Arizona Fall League.

Burch allowed one run and two hits in four innings in the AFL before being shut down with a sore oblique. His fastball sat in the upper 90s.

A scout from another organization contacted me yesterday to relay his team’s interest in Burch, who has been in the Orioles’ system since the 2021 trade that sent veteran shortstop Freddy Galvis to the Phillies.