Because You Asked - Analyze That

With the 2021 season officially over and baseball moving into full offseason mode, important dates on the calendar crossed off one at a time, the mailbag again is inflating like my ego.

My new wife is only available to deflate the ego. Not the mailbag. That one is up to me.

Just to review: You, my wonderful followers - which unfortunately sounds like a cult that will be documented on Netflix - ask me many questions that I attempt to answer. Some of you ask the same ones as if I ignored you. And then we dance.

Today, I give you the latest sequel. It isn't edited for length, style, clarity or Clairol. You get the raw version. I hope it's considered well done.

Also, my mailbag pushes your mailbag in the girls bathroom and holds the door closed.

Is there any consideration for taking out a couple rows of seats from left field and pushing the wall back 10 feet or so to give our pitchers a fairer chance to succeed?
Nice job with the "pushing" transition. Or maybe I did that by addressing you first. Anyway, the Orioles don't have any plans, at least as far as I know, to alter the ballpark's dimensions. If any seats are removed, I'd think it would be to open up the concourse and give fans a view of the field, which you find in so many other ballparks. I heard that one as a possibility a few years ago.

Would Hunter Harvey's fortunes change if he changed his first name to "Pitcher?"
That's a thinker. I'm guessing that this one arrived in the mailbag after I posted an interview with Harvey that included his annual plans to go hunting. His favorite hobby. He has no intention of changing his name or his hairstyle. Mullet that one over. Speaking of thinkers ...

Will you be going to Sarasota next spring?
I certainly hope so, though I cherished my time babysitting my granddaughter this year. Nothing can be planned this far in advance with so many uncertainties, including COVID-19 and the expired collective bargaining agreement.

Any chance the Orioles make an offer to Trevor Story?
I have a story for you. Once upon a time, a team in a rebuild with a low payroll shelled out huge dollars for a free agent shortstop. Pure fantasy. In this story, he's also a superhero who saves a baby in a burning warehouse.

How's your sarcasm these days?
Eh.

What's your take if there will be a stoppage due to lack of a new CBA?
I think it's a distinct possibility based on the acrimony and the stubbornness on both sides. Heels are dug in so deep, they can strike oil. And then there's a strike. But both sides also know that nothing good comes from a stoppage and the public squabbling. Fans have enough reasons lately to stay home. They don't need this, too. There must be some serious talks before Dec. 1.

When will the Orioles sign Matt Harvey, before March 1 or after?
I'm not predicting that he re-signs with the Orioles, but the door certainly seems to be ajar. Harvey will explore chances at a major league deal and, if unable to find a better offer, perhaps double back to the land of opportunities. The Orioles need a couple veteran starters. They'll see how the market plays out.

How much is Mike Elias willing to spend on free agent starting pitching?
This isn't the time to go on a spree. Elias made that pretty clear in his season-ending media session. Also, I need to point out that he doesn't pay the salaries. So it's not about how much he's willing to spend. Perhaps there's more of a willingness to hand out a major league contract rather than minor league deals with invites and a chance to make up to $1 million guaranteed. Maybe someone beyond a reclamation project. But the Orioles, at this stage of their rebuild, aren't ready to jack up the payroll.

Who appears in more games, either MLB or minor leagues, next year: Hunter Harvey or Yusniel Diaz?
I see what you're doing here, but I'm going to play it straight. Diaz is a position player rather than a pitcher, and therefore able to appear in more games because he can be in the lineup every day. Harvey would be working out of the bullpen with breaks in between appearances. The Orioles would love to have both of them healthy and on their active roster. Diaz first has to move past Triple-A.

Even if the O's made a good offer, why would Trey Mancini want to stay here?
I've known players who stare into the camera and tell the media that they love being here and hope to avoid a trade at the deadline, but they really yearn to join a contender. They just can't say it publicly and risk alienating the fanbase. This isn't how it works with Mancini. He's genuinely happy when the deadline passes and he's still an Oriole. He wants to remain in the organization that drafted him and brought him to the majors. He wants to keep calling Camden Yards his baseball home. He wants to be here when the rebuild is complete and the Orioles are contenders, reaping the rewards after so much sacrificing. Mancini understands that it's a business and his rising salary and final year of arbitration eligibility before free agency leave him vulnerable to a trade, but he isn't rooting for one.

Is Mancini going to get the expected salary bump and then get traded?
His salary certainly will rise, with MLBTradeRumors.com projecting it at $7.9 million. That's a lot of money for a rebuilding team that's been cutting payroll and funneling the money to other parts of the operation, including analytics, international scouting and the building of a state-of-the-art facility in the Dominican Republic. No one is untouchable and Elias will listen to any offer. If the right one comes along, Mancini could be moved. But there's also the possibility of an extension. The Orioles appear open to the idea.

Just so we can kind of keep our hopes up, in comparison terms of rebuilds, this should be the year we finish .500 or above, obviously not a playoff team, but a solid season, right? Please say yes.
I so hate to disappoint you - and here I am, treating you like someone I've dated - but I think .500 or above is too ambitious. That's a tremendous leap from again earning the first overall pick in the draft.

Are you a smoked turkey or roasted turkey guy? Cranberry sauce from a can or homemade?
I only know roasted turkey. It's OK, but I'm all about the sides on the holidays, like my mother's stuffing and mashed potatoes with sour cream. I've had cranberry sauce from the can and homemade, and I only want the kind that jiggles. But again, enough about my dating history.

Is Elias on the hot seat yet?
Why would he be? He's done everything so far that he promised during his introductory news conference, or whatever it was called. A farm system that's now ranked among the best in baseball, if not No. 1. Depends on who's doing the ranking. The implementation of a real analytics department, a serious commitment to international scouting and spending. And he warned that the rebuild would be ugly and no one wants to go through it again. He never promised a winner in three or four years. He never gave a timeline. And he certainly didn't know that the 2020 minor league season would be canceled because of the pandemic. The Orioles have been very transparent with their plan. You just have to pay attention to get it.

Who is considered the No. 2 catching prospect behind Adley Rutschman in the Orioles farm system?
MLBPipeline.com ranks Samuel Basallo at No. 24 in the system. He's 17 and spent this year in the Rookie-level Dominican Summer League after signing for $1.3 million in January out of the Dominican Republic. Creed Willems, who's 18, was an eighth-round pick this year who signed for $1 million.

Who gets to Camden Yards first next year? You or Adley?
I expect it to be me, as long as the media is allowed inside the press box.

Now that Pedro Severino has been outrighted, that almost guarantees that Adley opens the season with the Orioles. Right?
It does not. Severino wasn't coming back, whether due to a non-tender or passing through waivers and becoming a free agent. The Orioles aren't paying that salary for a guy who eventually will be the backup. He was an easy call as far as coming off the 40-man roster.

Will Chris Davis get an invite to spring training?
I'm sure he has connections and can visit his former teammates if he wants. The uniform hanging in his old locker won't belong to him.

What is the organizations view on Driveline-based training?
The Orioles strongly endorse it. They speak the language of data-driven performance centers. They've encouraged their players to seek out the instruction. They've hired instructors from these facilities and made them coaches.

For Emily: Rolling Stones or Beatles?
She likes them both. Says they're very different. But as a kid, her parents had the Sgt. Pepper album and she played it over and over. Says "Lucy in the Sky with Diamonds" was her "jam." She didn't get the supposed drug connection.

How does the organization view the timeline for Gunnar Henderson and Jordan Westburg? Do they think they'll both stay middle infield or will one perhaps shift over to third base?
That's a fluid situation. They could form a double play combination or, yes, third base could be an option. Baseball America recently ran a projected 2025 lineup that had Henderson at short and Westburg at second. Coby Mayo was the third baseman. As for their arrival dates, Westburg reached Double-A Bowie before Henderson and could beat him to Baltimore, but 2023 is the safer bet. The Orioles are letting the duo's play dictate their movement.

Pitching remains a priority, but will we sign better options than extreme retreads Félix Hernández and Matt Harvey?
The Orioles are likely to sign a couple of veterans to minor league deals. Whether they offer a major league contract depends, of course, on the cost. They won't be big players in free agency, and because of this, reclamation projects, as they're so coldly termed, could be the avenue again. So much of it depends on how the market unfolds, who's still available as report dates near, etc. But they'll certainly consider pitchers with experience and track records hoping for bounce back years.

When are the O's projected to win more than they lose? This year? Next year? Never?
Who's doing the projecting? You can scratch "never." They will be a winning team again. It isn't likely to happen in 2022, but after that, with Rutschman and other elite prospects on the roster, and perhaps with more money spent as contention nears, anything is possible. Too bad this is all happening in the American League East. I don't need to tell you about the challenges of facing the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays for the majority of games.

How many spots need to be cleared on the 40-man roster? Will there be any surprises?
There isn't an exact number, but the 40-man is at 30 and there are five players who need to be added from the 60-day injured list. They may want to protect at least five players leading to the Rule 5 draft. Four seem to be locks: DL Hall, Kyle Bradish, Kevin Smith and Terrin Vavra. Also, they'll probably want two open spots to select players in the Rule 5. So there's still work to be done. I don't think any subtractions among pitchers will be viewed as shocking, like the losses Wednesday of Eric Hanhold, Conner Greene and Marcos Diplán. But any infielder or outfielder might raise some eyebrows.

Why did you leave out catcher?
I love a conversational mailbag. Severino was expected to be non-tendered before the Orioles outrighted him Wednesday, and they could try to sneak Nick Ciuffo through waivers. Nothing that's going to elevate the brows. However, losing Ciuffo would leave them without a catcher on the 40-man and that's unusual.

Do you think Austin Wynns comes back on a minor league deal?
I think he's going to seek an opportunity elsewhere, as much as he loved playing for the Orioles.

How does Emily feel about you juggling writing while honeymooning?
No honeymoon until January. And it's all refundable. We're still scarred from the COVID wedding cancellation.

Any updates on the coaching staff?
Nothing beyond what I reported this week. Interviews have been done with some coaches from other teams and guys who are out of jobs. The Orioles could promote one of their young hitting coaches from the minors to pair with a new hire and make them co-hitting coaches. And it appears that assistant pitching coach Darren Holmes will move from the bullpen to dugout and major league field coordinator and catching instructor Tim Cossins will move to the bullpen. Also, former assistant hitting coach José Hernández will handle a variety of duties on the staff. Some hires have been made in the minors, but there are plenty of openings remaining.

Any plans to move in the fences at Camden Yards?
None. And that sound you heard was Chris Holt and Holmes having simultaneous heart palpitations.

Most unbreakable record in baseball?
Alan Mills' sprint time from the bullpen to home plate during a brawl.

Again, most unbreakable record in baseball?
Number of consecutive days that Randy Myers kept a grenade in his locker.

Again, most unbreakable record in baseball?
For me, there is absolutely no debate. Cy Young won 511 games. Why does everyone ignore that record and talk about Joe DiMaggio's 56-game hit streak or Cal Ripken Jr.'s 2,131? Those are daunting marks, but it's conceivable that someone comes along and breaks them. Unlikely, but possible. No one is winning 512 games. It just can't happen anymore.

Is there any word on why they don't seem to want to try Tyler Wells as a starter? Is it simply his health history and that he hasn't been a starter since 2018, or does it go beyond that?
The Orioles could change their thinking on Wells later, but they didn't want to pile innings on his arm this summer after he underwent Tommy John surgery and missed two seasons. And he emerged as a late-inning weapon. As much as they need starters, they also need dependable high-leverage relievers and he began to thrive in the role. He also loves the idea of closing.

I know this isn't Orioles related, but any thoughts on the passing of Baltimore Colts legend Tom Matte?
Very sad. You're right that he was a legend in this area and just fit so perfectly in Baltimore. Terrific guy. So friendly, loved to laugh. He was one of the guests at my charity roast many years ago at Ram Head Live. Proceeds went to the Cool Kids Campaign. He enjoyed receiving the barbs as much as delivering them. I thanked him for Super Bowl III, with an exaggerated eyeroll, and asked whether he also drove the Mayflower van out of Baltimore. "What the (expletive), Tom?" No one laughed harder than Tom. My lasting memory of him. RIP, No. 41.

What players are left from the Manny Machado trade?
Diaz, Dean Kremer and Rylan Bannon. Zach Pop was lost in the Rule 5 draft, and Breyvic Valera has played for the Yankees and Blue Jays since the Giants purchased his contract in January 2019.

What do the Orioles need besides starting pitching and a catcher or two until Rutschman is ready?
They don't have set starters at third base, shortstop or second base, though there are a handful of internal candidates. I'm not predicting three newcomers. They could bring in a third baseman on a major league deal and perhaps a middle infield, as well. I wouldn't be shocked, by the way, if they signed a veteran catcher to a major league deal. Beyond that, they really need to address middle relief, which again could be done via free agency. They need a couple guys who can enter a game, cover multiple innings and stop the bleedings. Guys who throw gas, and I don't mean on the fire. Adam Plutko's decline after an impressive April really hurt. And there were others who didn't do the job and left manager Brandon Hyde in a bind. Short starts and incompetent middle relief lead to lopsided defeats. Middle men don't get enough credit. Fans tend to look more at closer and set-up.

How do you feel about the suggestion that "bullpen" be changed to "arm barn?"
I think PETA jumped the shark a long time ago.