Dillon Atkinson: Could O's use four-man rotation in playoffs?

Following Tuesday night's 6-3 win over the Red Sox, the Orioles are tied for the first wild card spot and second place in the American League East - being just two games back - with the Blue Jays. The Birds, 79-66, face the Red Sox again tonight in the rubber match of a three-game set at Fenway. O's young right-hander Kevin Gausman will counter Boston's Cy Young candidate Rick Porcello. With the Orioles winning the series in Detroit and winning last night's ball game, a win in Boston tonight isn't needed. It would be great if they get the win tonight, but a loss won't kill their playoff hopes.

After tonight's contest, the Birds come back home for their final homestand of the regular season, which will last 11 games: Four against the Rays, four against the Red Sox and three against the Diamondbacks. Do you know which games could really make or break the O's playoff chances? If you said the seven total games at home against the two ballclubs that are below .500, you nailed it right on the head.

This season, the Orioles are 31-17 (.646) against clubs that are currently below .500, and that includes an 11-4 (.733) record against the Rays. If the Orioles can take care of business in these games, like they have been doing all season, it'll take some pressure off to win all the games against the Red Sox, Blue Jays and Yankees. If they fail to capitalize on these seven games, they could be putting themselves in a tough position not only against the Sox, but also when they go on the road to face the Jays and Yankees to cap off the regular season. I don't think it's unreasonable to expect at least a 5-2 record from the O's in the seven combined games against the Rays and Diamondbacks.

Since I'm already on the topic of the club's games against the Rays coming up, it's worth mentioning manager Buck Showalter seems committed to four starters in this rotation: Gausman, Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez and Dylan Bundy. Wade Miley was in-turn to start in Detroit last Saturday, but Showalter skipped him in favor of pushing Jimenez up a day. Then, when the Birds came to Boston, Miley got to start Game One of the series, while right-hander Yovani Gallardo got his start skipped. Now, Gallardo is scheduled to start Thursday when the O's come back home to face the Rays. And the team is listing Sunday, which would be Miley's turn, as TBD.

When Tillman returned to the rotation from the disabled list, many fans - including myself - wondered how Showalter would work the starters. Would Miley or Gallardo get the boot? Would Bundy move back to the bullpen after his recent struggles (with concern from fans over his health)? Would the club move forward with a six-man rotation? Well, it looks like Showalter is committing to Gausman, Tillman, Jimenez and Bundy, while having Gallardo and Miley rotate skipping starts. This can be beneficial to the club in multiple ways. If one of Gallardo or Miley have had more success in the past against a specific team, Showalter has options. Also, by skipping one each time through, the rotation can be slightly reordered to put the O's in a better position to win. For example, if Gallardo wasn't skipped, he would've been in-turn to get the ball last night, with Bundy going tonight. Now, Gallardo will take the mound at home against a below-average club, which allows Gausman to make the start tonight at Fenway.

You may not like the O's sending Miley out there in favor of Gallardo, or vice versa. But the reality is they're both unimpressive back-of-the-rotation starters, and having them rotate in the fifth spot gives Showalter rotation flexibility so he can go with the best matchups possible. A team only needs four pitchers in its starting rotation in the postseason, and it's looking like the O's skipper has already chosen his men if the Birds do go that far in October.

Dillon Atkinson blogs about the Orioles for Orioles Uncensored. Follow him on Twitter: @DAtkinsonOU. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.