Dillon Atkinson: It's time to face reality

If you've followed me on social media or on Orioles Uncensored for the past few years, you've probably been able to get the idea that at times, I rock the orange sunglasses and I drink the orange Kool-Aid. It's not all the time, but I sure have shown my sides of blind optimism about the Orioles. But today, I'm hopping off that train. At least for now, that is.

The Orioles are currently 40-43, fourth place in the American League East, and are less than four weeks away from Major League Baseball's July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. While some see the tight wild card race and are hoping the Orioles will be buyers in trades later this month, I hope the front office decides to take the opposite route. They have a minus-79 run differential through their first 83 games, and since starting off the season hot at 22-10, the Orioles are 18-33 (.353).

There isn't just one particular flaw with this ballclub. Sure, the abysmal performance by the starting rotation stands out, but one addition to this rotation won't fix the problems with the other four. The bullpen isn't as dominant as we'd all hope. It's great that All-Star closer Zach Britton is set to return off the disabled list, but there are still concerns with anybody coming out of the bullpen not named Mychal Givens or Brad Brach. The offense, like the bullpen, isn't doing as well as everybody hoped, either. Production at shortstop has been absent, no matter who is in there. The only consistency in the lineup is from rookie Trey Mancini and first-time All-Star selection Jonathan Schoop. They've also had decent offensive production from new additions Seth Smith and Welington Castillo. But even with those four performing well, the Orioles still have the 23rd-ranked offense in the league, per wRC+.

So if the Orioles are going to be buyers later this month in trades, they're going to need to upgrade in the starting rotation, bullpen and at shortstop, and they're also going to need another bat. The Orioles have some intriguing prospects right now - Chance Sisco, Ryan Mountcastle, Tanner Scott, Austin Hays and a couple of others. But even though those talents are in the system, the Birds still have one of the lowest-ranked farm systems in all of baseball. The Birds probably won't even get all they need in return if they do in fact trade away most or all of their top prospects. Depleting an already weak farm system to fill one or two holes on a club that has too many to plug doesn't seem like a very wise strategy, for both short and long-term. At least in 2014, when the Orioles overpaid the Red Sox to acquire Andrew Miller for Eduardo Rodriguez, it was a move with the strong intent to be beneficial for the short-term. But in 2017, we won't be able to say the same if the O's decide to be buyers.

Instead, despite being just three games out of a wild card spot - along with nine other AL teams who either hold a spot or are within five games of the second one - my notion is that the Orioles should be sellers later this month. Even though they're only three games out, there are many other teams within good range of that playoff spot as well, and it will be incredibly difficult for the O's to get back to the playoffs with seemingly a below-average ballclub, facing so many teams in competition for the playoffs. There are five clubs currently ahead of the Orioles in the race for just the second wild card spot.

In my opinion, the Orioles should entertain trading away Britton and superstar third baseman Manny Machado, as the return they could bring would be an extraordinary help to the O's farm system. However, due to Britton's injury and Machado's struggles at the plate, the Orioles may find better deals for them this offseason rather than within the next four weeks. So the Orioles can put their names out there, but hold back for what deal is right for them. But they have other players on the roster that could garner interest from clubs looking to make a postseason push. Smith and catcher Castillo can become free agents after the season, so they would fit perfect half-year rental roles elsewhere. Left-hander Wade Miley is a free agent after this season (unless his club option is exercised), so he could also be an option for a team looking for a cheap back-of-the-rotation arm. Also, Brach could give the Orioles a good return in a trade. He's not a free agent until the end of 2018, and has proven he is a solid setup man and interim closer. If the Orioles can't find the right deal for Britton, they should be able to find a good one for Brach.

The Orioles already have a thin farm system as is. And the truth is, this team has too many holes to fill. The club should play the safe route and start the rebuild now. I'd rather not see another 14 consecutive losing seasons in Baltimore, so I'd rather the team jumpstart the rebuild now, with hopes to be competing again in just a few years. In 2015, the Orioles made a mistake by buying when they shouldn't have. Two years later, let's hope it doesn't happen again.

Dillon Atkinson blogs about the Orioles for Orioles Uncensored. Follow him on Twitter: @DAtkinsonOU. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.