Dillon Atkinson: Wilson or Wright? Gallardo's return leads to crowded rotation

Orioles right-hander Yovani Gallardo - who was placed on the 15-day disabled list on April 23 with right shoulder/bicep tendinitis - will be cleared to start throwing again this Saturday at Camden Yards. There's still no timetable set for when we should expect him to be activated from the disabled list, but the veteran starter getting ready to pick up a ball and start throwing is the first step to his upcoming return.

When he does make his return, who gets removed from the rotation? There are seemingly three locks to stay: Chris Tillman, Ubaldo Jimenez and Kevin Gausman. This means Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright will be battling it out for one spot. Knowing Buck Showalter, he'll probably ride whoever has the hot hand at the time. But does one have an upper hand over the other?

Both have been fairly similar so far this season. In five starts this year, Wright has averaged 5.2 innings pitched per outing, recording a high 6.04 ERA, although it is paired with a much lower 4.15 FIP. In three starts, Wilson has averaged approximately 5.1 innings pitched per outing, posting a 4.02 ERA accompanied by a higher 4.56 FIP.

On Tuesday, my colleague Ryan Romano went into detail on how Orioles pitchers have been able to not only avoid the long ball, but also generate a high number of ground balls. Wilson has contributed pretty well to that. He has generated an impressive 61.5-percent groundball rate in his three starts, which is highly influenced by his solid start against the Yankees last week, getting the Bronx Bombers to hit the ball on the ground 72.2 percent of the time.

His 61.5 percent mark - even though it's an extremely small sample size - is good enough for second-best in the American League. BrooksBaseball.net shows that his sinker has been a huge part of that. Wilson has not only thrown his sinker more often over his last two starts, but it has also helped him keep the ball on the ground. Wright has recorded a 43.2 percent groundball rate in his six starts, which isn't nearly as impressive as Wilson's number, but it's right around league average. So you can't really complain with that.

Through their times on the mound as starters this season, batters have hit Wilson harder - at a 28.9 percent hard-hit rate - than they have Wright, at 25.3 percent. However, Wilson has allowed 7.3 percent less line drives than Wright has. So it seems like batters are squaring up Wright more, but are hitting the ball at a softer velocity, while batters are hitting Wilson harder, but driving it straight into the ground.

Both right-handers have the same issue on the mound - getting through the order a third time around. Batters are adjusting to them, especially their sinker and changeups. The sinker and changeup have been great contributors for both pitchers in inducing groundballs. However, from the first time to the third time through the batting order, line drive percentage on both pitches - as well as their fastball - go way up for both Wilson and Wright. Pitches being squared up more a third time through the order is a main reason why these two pitchers haven't been going too deep into games (Wilson moving from reliever to starter in mid-April is another reason for him). Unless a pitcher is throwing a perfect game or has faced the minimum, the third time the batting order comes around will start in the sixth inning at the latest.

Both Wright and Wilson may have two-to-four more starts to show who's the better starter. If you're Buck, do you ride the hot hand or do you have a legitimate preference of one over the other? Both starters are similar, and it seems like they both have back-of the-rotation ceilings. It's difficult to pick one or the other, so I'd say you'll just have to go with the hottest hand.

There is one thing that intrigues me though: With Wright's velocity and look on the mound, I do wonder how he'd perform in a one- to two-inning relief role. The velocity could jump from mid-to-high 90s, and he'd be able to focus on one secondary offering, instead of having a full starter's repertoire. Also to keep in mind, whoever gets to stay in the rotation when Gallardo returns still may not be in there for very long if the Orioles are contending near the non-waiver trade deadline. The farm is weak, but they still should have enough in the minors to pull a trade for a possible half-year rental starting pitcher - although there's not too much on that market, either.

Dillon Atkinson blogs about the Orioles for Orioles Uncensored. Follow him on Twitter: @DAtkinsonOU. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.