Elias on 17th pick in draft: "I would say we’re looking at more in the 10-12 range of guys"

Inheriting a massive rebuild project and laying out plans to navigate it and eventually come out a contender, with clear indicators of a tedious pace and an inability to doctor it and improve the appearance, left Mike Elias with top-five draft picks in his first four seasons as executive vice president and general manager.

Catcher Adley Rutschman and shortstop Jackson Holliday were selected first overall in 2019 and 2022 respectively. Outfielder Heston Kjerstad was the second overall pick in 2020. Outfielder Colton Cowser, promoted to the majors on Wednesday, was the fifth selection in 2021.

Finishing above .500 last summer, an industry shocker, left the Orioles 17^th in Sunday’s first round. The price paid for improvement.

No one is complaining. Falling back is progress.

“It’s very different,” Elias said on yesterday’s video call with the local media. “When you’re picking as low as we are, 17, there’s just so much uncertainty about who’s going to be there.”

The team’s board last summer was whittled to Holliday, outfielders Druw Jones and Elijah Green, and infielders Termarr Johnson and Brooks Lee. The first four were high school players.

Mock drafts couldn’t agree on the final decision. But those five names were confirmed.

“In the past when we’re picking in the top five, No. 1 overall, your list by about this time from draft day is usually pared down to five players or so,” Elias said. “For us, I would say we’re looking at more in the 10-12 range of guys that we’re either, A, considering, or B, think have a realistic chance of surviving to 17. So, it’s just a much wider net to deep dive on.”

LSU pitcher Paul Skenes and outfielder Dylan Crews are the consensus top two in 2023. The Orioles shouldn’t bother thinking about them. There’s zero chance that one of them is around at 17.

FanGraphs entered the chat yesterday and agreed with others that have Georgia prep shortstop Colin Houck going to the Orioles. The Athletic’s Keith Law projects Florida prep shortstop Arjun Nimmala.

MLB.com’s Jim Callis mentioned several prep hitters and Florida Atlantic first baseman/outfielder Nolan Schanuel, but he went with a much bolder prediction.

A pitcher.

University of Florida right-hander Hurston Waldrep has moved up to 17^th on Callis’ board. Meanwhile, Elias hasn’t selected a pitcher earlier than the third round, Oklahoma State’s Nolan McLean, a two-way player who didn’t sign last year.

Carter Baumler was a fifth-rounder in 2020, Carlos Tavera in 2021 and Trace Bright in 2022.

Elias’ first pitcher was College of Charleston’s Griffin McLarty in the eighth round in 2019. McLarty was released in March after posting a 4.75 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in 68 games, and he didn’t sign with a new team.

MLB Pipeline’s top 30 prospects list for the Orioles contains nine pitchers, which seems like an increase. Of the eight Orioles in baseball’s top 100, none are pitchers.

Would Elias dare to take one in the first round?

“I wouldn’t handicap it either way,” he said.

“We have candidates for the 17^th pick who are pitchers. We have many that are not pitchers. I think it’s just going to depend on who the very top magnet on our board is when that pick rolls around, and we’ll call them and make sure that they’re signable. And that could be a hitter and that could be a pitcher. Clearly, we’ve poured a lot of a considerable draft resources into position players since this group has been here. I think we’ve chosen wisely with those guys. We’re obviously mindful of the need to furnish a quality major league pitching staff to go with all these position players, but we’re just not going to force it through the draft. We think the draft picks have an inherent value and a particular value to the Orioles that we shouldn’t be drafting for need.

“I think we’ve gotten some interesting pitchers with the fourth and fifth round picks that we’ve used on them so far. But obviously, these higher draft picks, you’re going to get even more interesting pitchers than that if you use the picks well. So, we know that, too. I just don’t know how it’s going to translate into this year’s draft other than, we’re trying to get the very most out of every one of these picks.”

Having so many teams ahead of his own is altering Elias’ travel plans, with fewer days spent laying his own eyes on prospects.

“I think I’ve seen between eight and 10 players personally, but if I’m being honest, I’m not sure that I’m moving the needle much in the process,” he said.

“When we were picking really high, the top five selections that we had, I spent probably as much time as possible on focusing on the right players for those selections, just because of the weight of the decision, but also, it’s possible for a general manager to go see those players five times apiece or whatever is necessary to really sink your teeth into it. But just with the uncertainty surrounding who’s actually going to be in play at pick 17, it’s not possible.”

Elias also is busy with the major league club, which requires more of his attention while in contention.

“It just doesn’t make sense for me to go out there and hit the road full time,” he said.

“I trust our scouting staff and our analytics department and all our people in the front office that make these selections. If I’m out there kind of dabbling in the 17^th overall pick, it could possibly cause more harm than good. I go out there to see the players, meet their parents, to get some feel for their situations, but these have not been multiple looks or in depth looks on my part this year.”

Elias can’t just kick back and revel in his past successes, but there’s certainly an appreciation and swelling of pride over the recent promotions of Cowser and infielder Jordan Westburg, who have joined infielder Gunnar Henderson and All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman.

The top-rated farm system in baseball is churning out talent, as Elias envisioned after accepting the job in November 2018. The only way for the rebuild to work.

“I think that we are pleased with the results so far from our draft picks,” he said. “We’re not going to rest our laurels on that or act like there’s not some degree of good luck involved anytime you get a good draft pick. And these guys are just starting their careers. We’ll see where it goes. Making the majors is not the end all of a successful draft pick. But I think we’ve got a sound process in place in the draft. The results are certainly at a level of reflecting some help to our draft process.

“And can’t understate the player development end of that, too. These guys have moved along and improved and performed in the minors, and they’re not the exact same players they were on draft day. They’ve gotten healthy coaching and healthy character building in the minor leagues, and that’s not always the case when you sign with an organization. So, I am happy with the roots of our pipeline so far for the last four or five years, but I’m also somebody that gets paranoid about falling behind, and we’re going to continue to try to maintain an edge with everything that we do in scouting and player development.”