Elias says Orioles to choose among five players for first pick

With two days remaining before the start of the First-Year Player Draft, the Orioles have reduced the number of possibilities with the second overall selection but aren't ready to pinpoint their preference.

Speaking to the media today on a Zoom call, executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said the Orioles are "actively discussing" five players and probably won't make a final decision until the day of the draft.

It's a fairly typical stance for a team positioned in such a high slot and that's especially true with the Orioles, who aren't going to make a pick based on need. They want the best available player on the board.

Arizona State first baseman Spencer Torkelson is expected to go to the Tigers with the first pick. Elias said the level of mystery surrounding the choice is "lower than average," though he didn't mention Torkelson by name.

The Orioles are conducting their draft business despite baseball's shutdown and the closing of the warehouse.

"I would characterize our preparation as being near complete," Elias said. "Our scouting staff, our front office, our player development department have all been meeting using this medium for weeks and carefully lining up our board. We have six picks in this draft, our last pick is in the fifth round at pick 133, so we're taking the approach of lining up a number of magnets that will get us through this draft and working off one big board.

"Obviously, a lot of our attention has been directed toward debating the candidates for the No. 2 pick, but we also have a tremendous opportunity given that we have pick No. 30 and also pick 39 to really impact our organization and our farm system. We think this is a good draft class. The abrupt end to the baseball season this spring has definitely made the scouting process different. I think it will affect the nature of the draft a little bit, but it certainly has not prevented us from making quality evaluations of these players and having enough players at each pick to get us through the rounds.

"Really, I think we could keep going even given the circumstances. So we're excited to get going and wait and see what happens."

Elias isn't offering up names, but Vanderbilt third baseman/center fielder Austin Martin certainly is in the club's top five and appears to be the favorite for selection. The Orioles also like New Mexico State infielder Nick Gonzales, prep outfielder Zac Veen and Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad, and they think highly of Texas A&M left-hander Asa Lacy, though there are plenty of people in the industry who predict that they will pass on a pitcher until the later rounds.

"We have not made up our mind about our top two players on the board, so to speak, in preparation for the second pick," Elias said. "We have choices that we like and we're trying to pick between players that we like and that's a good thing and the most important thing, but we have not made a decision yet as to how we're going to finalize that group. And we may not until the day of the draft when all the info for the whole draft is available, including signability information. There's still medical information trickling in, even at this stage."

Elias also said there are "some players more likely than others" among the five. He was asked whether there's an overriding trait that the team is seeking at such a premium spot.

"We want to do well with the pick," he said. "The baseball draft, even when you're picking high, there are no guarantees, and the odds of your pick returning almost no value are enough that you have to consider that possibility. So even high in the draft, we don't think too much about position need. We're trying to make the best investment that we can and you can only pick amongst what the draft is offering that year. And it's different at the top of the draft every year.

"Last year, we took a plus defensive catcher (Adley Rutschman) with our first pick and that's just not available every year. There are really good players and really good talents this year, and we're going to make a good pick, but we're treating these guys as individuals and comparing them one against the other."

Could the Orioles go under slot, which has been speculated? Elias did it in Houston, but now has fewer choices with the draft reduced to five rounds.

"I think that the short draft will constrain your ability to spread bonus pool money around, or at least the opportunity to do so," Elias responded. "If a team does sign their first pick for less than slot, they're going to be under more pressure to apply that savings in the first few rounds, whereas in a normal draft if you don't sign one player with all that money with an early pick, you can kind of gradually spread it out over the rest of the draft.

"Also, the pools themselves are smaller, so there's less money, so that is something that we're having to think about. With that said, even in the Astros-Carlos Correa example, we feel it's important that if you're taking a guy with a high pick that he's your favorite guy and it's nice when the stars align like they did in that instance. And I think, as it turned out there, that the club was right with its evaluation. So we're focusing on taking the guy that we feel is the best player for us, the best investment, and we will listen to and consider signability factors, but it's important that we maximize our draft class, and getting that first pick right is the most important part of that."

The draft has been viewed as more college heavy than last year. The Orioles could pass on a pitcher with the second overall selection and nab a college arm with their compensatory pick or in the second round.

"I don't think that would necessarily apply to the first round, because the first-round players, even the high school ones, there's a lot more comfort and track record laid down over a couple years and I think teams are confident to rely on that work with those players," Elias said. "I do think, and this is just my opinion, some people have the opposite opinion, that we may see a higher gravitation toward college players in the later rounds of this draft just by the nature of it and also with the smaller bonus pools.

"There definitely are some college pitchers that we like that if they're there and they're the best on the board, we'll take them."

No matter how the draft unfolds, Elias is pleased with the way his staff has been able to operate in unprecedented times. The team is leveraging the work done by its scouts over the summer and also leaning heavily on its analytic side.

"It's gone very smoothly," he said. "Our analytics team did a great job of building a virtual draft board very quickly and it's really nice. We can drag magnets around. Everyone can see it on their computer screen. It's real easy to use. You can click through and have all of the player info and video that you want right there. And honestly I think it's something that we're going to keep using. We may be done with physical magnets even when we get back to normal.

"It has been a little more tiring I think for all of us to conduct these meetings over the phone and over video. Usually a draft room is an energetic, fun experience, and we're not getting that this year, which is a shame, but it hasn't stopped us from being productive at all. And I give a lot of credit to (domestic scouting supervisor) Brad Ciolek and the way he's managing these meetings over video and the energy level that he's keeping up."

Elias doesn't know what the Orioles will do with their players following the draft. The minor league season is expected to be cancelled. There won't be a Rookie-level Gulf Coast League or short-season Single-A Aberdeen with rosters to stock.

"It's a little weird, like everything is this year," he said. "I think as we get more concrete information from major and minor league baseball about what their respective seasons are going to look like, how they're going to be structured, what roster rules may be, we will consider opportunities to get a player or players from this draft professional repetitions in our environment, if those opportunities present themselves, but we just don't know yet.

"I really hope so. I really hope that we can get not only these draft picks but our minor leaguers doing something at some point. We're all waiting with a lot of anxiousness for that opportunity to present itself."

The Orioles also will be active trying to sign undrafted players, a process that begins two days after the final round is called.

"I don't know what that number's going to be," Elias said. "I don't know how these kids are going to make their decisions. Nobody really knows how that's going to go. But we're content with the fact that we're getting our five rounds in and we're going to do the best that we can."

It's happening at a juncture where the country is dealing with the pandemic, protests are sprouting in response to police brutality all over the map and the Black Lives Matter movement is gaining steam and supporters.

"It's tough to watch everything that's happening this year," Elias said. "This is a horrible year so far and I hope we can change the story of this year before it's over and I hope that baseball is a big part of that coming back.

"It's good that the draft has given us something to really focus on in the baseball operations department. When that's over we'll be focused on signing these players and getting them where they need to go, whatever that looks like. And that's where our minds are at right now."

The 2020 season remains in doubt, with players reportedly unhappy again with the latest proposal sent earlier today by Major League Baseball. A July 4 start is off the board.

Elias remains optimistic, no matter how much bad news filters through the industry.

"I think we're going to play," he said. "I don't know what the length and structure of the season is going to be. That's really hard to predict right now with the discussions that are ongoing, but I'm very confident that we're going to play."