ESPN's Keith Law on Chris Davis and the Orioles

NASHVILLE - Last night at the Winter Meetings, I recorded a video interview with ESPN's Keith Law where we primarily discussed Chris Davis' free agency. After we recorded this interview, my colleague Roch Kubatko broke the news via Twitter that the Orioles have made a huge offer to Davis.

He tweeted the following:

Sounds like no progress was made in #orioles talks with Boras regarding Chris Davis. Its believed Os offer in neighborhood of $150 mil.

-- Roch Kubatko (@masnRoch) December 9, 2015

Here is my take: That is a huge and legit offer to Davis. The Orioles did indeed open the checkbook. Now Davis and agent Scott Boras need to let them know whether or noth they are going to be in the ballpark for his services - and soon. They can't wait forever. They have a team to put together. The Orioles put the ball in Davis' court with that offer.

Here are some of Law's thoughts on Davis and the Orioles:

Should the O's put pressure on Davis and Boras to decide something soon?

"Putting pressure on the Boras camp isn't going to work. I don't think that has ever worked for anybody. My guess is it's more a play to say, 'We have to get something else in place. We can't wait until January. We're going to move on and we're going to go after Justin Upton. We're going to go after Yoenis Cespedes. We want a bat somewhere, a power bat.'

"If it's not going to be Davis, and my gut feel all along is it's probably not going to be Davis, then they need to move in another direction. This provides (Dan Duquette) almost some closure from his end. If the player really wanted to be back in Baltimore, which I've never heard was the case, then maybe he could jump and say to Boras, 'I want to get this done.' I don't think that is going to happen. This kind of closes the loop all around and now they can move in another direction."

You don't think Davis wants to return to Baltimore?

"I've never really heard that. As opposed to (Darren) O'Day, who I understood was really happy with the situation. Buck (Showalter) gave him a chance. He made him into an elite set-up reliever. He saw the potential for him to get left-handed hitters out and gave him the opportunity. I really believe that was a big factor in him not just returning, but signing quickly. Now they've got the bullpen in pretty good shape heading into the rest of the winter."

Could the O's have an either/or situation with Davis? If they don't get him, they have those dollars to spread over other players. Some feel this Plan B might even work better for the team.

"Yes, it might be. Because I think Chris Davis - while extremely productive when he is on - is hugely risky. You've seen the volatility in the performance. You know he is going to strike out an enormous rate. That means there is a good chance there is a year where he hits .220. You are going to pay him to be the 40-homer-a-year guy with a decent on-base percentage, but he may not be that guy every year in the deal.

"It may make more sense to spread your risk among multiple assets. Or spend that money on a guy with a little more predictability in his performance. Like an Upton or a Cespedes. An Upton gives you the advantage of youth, too. Upton and Jason Heyward, who I've never heard linked to the Orioles. They are younger players and you are rolling the dice on getting some upside, which is not typically what you get out of free agency."

It seems Davis' market is not defined. Is that true, not a lot of clubs in on him right now, or are we just not hearing which clubs are truly in on Davis?

"That's a good question. One thing that comes to mind, even as I was doing the free agent rankings on ESPN.com, it's not a great first base market in terms of supply. But it's also not a great first base market in terms of demand.

"How many big-dollar teams are actually out there looking for first baseman? The Red Sox are covered, so are the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Cubs. The teams that ordinarily might spend a lot of money at that spot, probably don't need to spend a lot of money at that spot.

"That said, Boras has managed in the past, to kind of create an opportunity out of thin air for clients often just by waiting. By saying, 'I know this isn't the perfect positional fit, but I've got the only 40-homer bat on the market.' It would not surprise me at all if he took that strategy with Davis."