Is Manny Machado up next for a long-term contract?

When many or probably pretty much all Orioles fans think about third baseman Manny Machado, eventually two questions likely come to mind: Will the club be able to sign him to a long-term deal and how much will it cost?

At 23, he already has won two Gold Glove Awards, one Platinum Glove and made two All-Star teams. In 2013, he finished ninth for the American League Most Valuable Player award and last year he finished fourth.

For Machado, 2015 was a special season and he filled up the stat sheet. He hit .286 with 30 doubles, a triple, 35 homers, 102 runs and 86 RBIs. Machado also had a .359 on-base percentage, a .502 slugging percentage and an .861 OPS. Plus, he added 20 steals. He ranked fourth in the American League in runs, 10th in homers and OPS, 12th in stolen bases, tied for 14th in RBIs, tied for 17th in on-base percentage and 20th in batting average.

Remember when some analysts said all those doubles Machado was hitting would soon turn into home runs? They were right. In 2013, he had 51 doubles and 14 homers. Last year, he had 30 doubles and 35 homers.

Machado was one of four players in the majors to hit 20 or more homers and steal 20 or more bases. The others were Arizona's Paul Goldschmidt (33 homers/21 steals), A.J. Pollock (20 homers/39 steals) and Milwaukee's Ryan Braun (25 homers/24 steals).

He became the second Oriole to record 30 or more homers with 20 or more steals. Brady Anderson hit 50 homers and added 21 steals in 1996.

Machado kept improving at the plate since his debut in August 2012 and last year, he drew more walks and chased fewer pitches. Here is his OBP since 2012: .294, .314, .324 and .359. Here is his walk-rate since 2012: 4.5, 4.1, 5.6 and 9.8 percent. Here is his OPS in that time: .739, .746, .755 and .861.

In the minors, Machado never hit more than 11 homers any season and his career minor league OPS was .787. He blew by that last year. When anyone talks now about the best young players in the game, their list is not complete if Machado is not in the conversation.

So when will he cash in?

My take is that the Orioles make their first real run at a Machado deal next offseason. He will be two years from free agency then and they'll have the chance to buy out several free agent seasons with a long-term deal. Will it be a deal of five or six years, or will it be a mega-deal of eight, 10 or more years?

There is risk in all long-term deals since they are guaranteed. But the Orioles certainly will want to lock up a player that could already be among the best to ever wear the orange and black.

Will it be a deal that approaches or exceeds $200 million? How about $300 or even $400 million? Is that crazy talk or realistic talk?

From Machado's standpoint, he could be looking at two big contracts during his career. Let's say he signs a seven-year deal next winter. It would take him through his age 30 season in 2023 and he would be 31 at the end of that year. Still in his prime, he could then hit the market again. Or the O's could go for the 10-year contract and tie him up through 2026. All it will take is dollars. Plenty of them.

There also seems to be a decent chance that Machado and his reps seek an opt-out clause and maybe he is the one player that could get one from the Orioles.

In a recent mailbag to MLBTradeRumors.com, the outlet got a question about a future Machado contract with the Orioles. Here was the response to that question:

"Machado is earning $5MM after avoiding arbitration for the first time this winter, and he's statistically close enough to Josh Donaldson that I don't mind using the two for a rough comparison. Donaldson signed his second and third arbitration years away for a combined $28.65MM, and also had the benefit of qualifying as a Super Two to boost his starting point. Machado doesn't have an MVP or 40-homer season under his belt, and he hasn't played his first full arbitration season yet, so we can probably discount Donaldson's deal somewhat when looking at the arb years. That being said, I don't think $26MM for Machado's final two arbitration seasons is outlandish, and from there you have to look at pricing him as an elite talent -- something along the lines of $25MM+ per season -- who is set to hit the market in advance of his age-26 season.

Quite honestly, I don't even see how an extension is possible without the Orioles caving on their stance against opt-out clauses. The way the game is trending, especially in terms of long-term contracts for young players, an opt-out would seem almost like a requirement. Giancarlo Stanton, Jason Heyward, Clayton Kershaw, Masahiro Tanaka, Elvis Andrus, and Justin Upton all represent players that signed long term contracts at young ages (whether via free agency or extension), and each secured an opt-out clause in his deal. If the 2015 season, or even 90 percent of that production, becomes the norm for Machado going forward, he should have an easy case for $300MM or more in free agency. Given that, an extension for him right now should easily top $200MM and include an opt-out clause after his second and/or third would-be free-agent year. Given his age, and with two 6+ WAR seasons already under his belt, Machado's agents could be looking to the Stanton contract as a comparable (though it was signed one service year later in his career)."

In November 2014, Stanton signed a 13-year deal worth $325 million with Miami. It includes an opt-out clause after the 2020 season. It includes salaries that range from the $6.5 million he played for last season going up to $32 million. The deal runs through the 2027 season and includes a club option for 2028.

After proving he has two healthy knees and elevating his game to a high level last year, Machado is now set to cash in. Again, the key questions that remain seem to be when and how much?

MASR today: I'll join Tom Davis and Mel Antonen later today to talk baseball on the "Mid-Atlantic Sports Report." Check it out at 5 p.m. on MASN.