Notes on Castillo, free agent predictions and more

The Orioles are one more day away, at the most, from receiving official word that catcher Welington Castillo is declining his $7 million option for 2018 and entering the free agent market. Nothing has happened over the last month that leads them to believe in a different outcome.

There's always the chance that everyone is floored by a reversal. Never say never. But it would be a huge shocker.

Castillo was more likely to return after batting .175/.230/.386 in June and .258/.298/.412 in the first half and making two trips to the disabled list, but he hit .313/.356/.592 with 12 of his 20 home runs following the break despite going 8-for-47 in September. He also threw out 49 percent of runners attempting to steal, best in the majors, and cut his passed balls in half from 10 to five. He won't win awards for his pitch framing - my concern is MLB Network would turn it into an hour-long show - but he improved this year.

The Orioles' ERA climbed from 4.22 to 4.97. The Diamondbacks' ERA fell from 5.09, worst in the majors, to 3.66. Some people blame Castillo. I doubt it's that simple, but those are the numbers.

Somehow in relatively quiet fashion, Castillo posted averages of .314 in April, .320 in May, .309 in July and .371 in August. His .282 average led American League catchers and ranked second in the majors. His 20 home runs were fourth in the league and sixth in the majors (minimum 330 at-bats).

The free agent catching market suggests that Castillo can land a multi-year deal. As I've written in the past, the Orioles are prepared to field contract proposals from his agent. Doesn't mean they'll bite on one, but they figure that it's going to happen.

Castillo liked working with bench coach John Russell, who doubles as catching instructor. He saw the benefits defensively and he'd be happy to extend the relationship - at the right price, of course.

I can't see the Orioles giving Castillo multiple guaranteed years with Chance Sisco beating down the door. They wouldn't have been inconsolable if Castillo exercised his option for 2018 - Sisco or Caleb Joseph could be optioned - but they can go with the duo and decline the larger financial commitment.

Funnel those funds toward pitching. That's my mantra. I may design T-shirts.

I'm still undecided about the tattoo.

The player option, a rarity in Orioles contracts, can burn on both hands. Lose someone who performed beyond expectations or be stuck with someone who disappointed. Castillo falls in the former category. But Sisco's presence makes it more palatable.

Sisco went 6-for-18 with two doubles and two home runs in 10 games after rosters expanded and he doesn't turn 23 until February. As long as the Orioles can trust him behind the plate, their top consideration for keeping him, they can at least offer a timeshare with Joseph.

They're going to pursue a veteran catcher for Triple-A depth, especially with Francisco Peña becoming a minor league free agent. Austin Wynns can move up to Norfolk as long as he's protected from the Rule 5 draft or bypassed in it. A 40-man roster decision must be made by Nov. 20.

* MLBTradeRumors.com wasted no time in making its free agent predictions, ranking the top 50 and where they'll end up.

The site ranks Castillo 34th and has him going to the Athletics for $14 million over two years. It also has Chris Tillman 47th and accepting a one-year, $10 million deal from the Tigers.

The Orioles are projected to sign outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, ranked 40th, to a one-year, $12 million contract and left-hander Jason Vargas, ranked 46th, to a one-year, $10 million deal.

I wouldn't be against it. Gonzalez would give the Orioles a much-needed left-handed bat and Vargas would be the left-handed starter that they desire.

Gonzalez is a career .301/.368/.546 hitter against right-handers and a .261/.297/.435 hitter versus left-handers. He posted a .206/.241/.321 average against southpaws this season, but Austin Hays could be carried on the roster as an alternative.

The alternatives, of course, include handing Hays the everyday job or letting him gain more experience at Norfolk. Lots of time to make that decision. But a left-handed bat needs to be plugged into the lineup.

I'm aware that Gonzalez's slash line was .298/.350/.505 in 2016 and .262/.339/.423 this year, and that his home runs and RBIs dropped from 25 and 100 to 14 and 57. He hit .323/.403/.520 at Coors Field and .203/.274/.332 on the road. I'd still take him on a one-year deal.

* The Cardinals released their home spring training schedule and it includes a March 15 game against the Orioles.

Driving from Sarasota to Jupiter is quite a treat. Just watch your feet as the sarcasm drips.

The Orioles also played the Cardinals at Roger Dean Stadium on March 12, 2015. Mark Reynolds hit a three-run homer off Bud Norris and the Cardinals won 8-2.

Norris allowed three runs and four hits, walked three batters and hit one in 2 2/3 innings. He said afterward that he was pleased with the way he threw.

Henry Urrutia doubled and scored on Steve Clevenger's grounder. Mark Hendrickson was charged with three runs. Brothers Dylan and Bobby Bundy pitched on the same day.

Wait, I'm not done.

Evereth Cabrera started at shortstop, Matt Tuiasosopo played left field and Dariel Álvarez started in center. Catcher J.P. Arencibia was charged with his second passed ball. Nolan Reimold drew his fourth walk in seven games.

(Reimold, attempting a comeback, has hired Josh Kusnick as his agent.)

The Orioles will be making an overnight trip. I've heard that they play the Mets on March 16 in Port St. Lucie.

The Phillies' home schedule includes games against the Orioles on Feb. 24, March 3 and March 25. That's a lot of trips to Clearwater, but they serve the best lunches for the media. It's more tolerable.

* The online gaming site Bovada lists the Orioles at 50/1 to win the 2018 World Series. So yes, there's a chance.

Houston Astros 5/1
Los Angeles Dodgers 11/2
Cleveland Indians 15/2
Washington Nationals 10/1
Boston Red Sox 11/1
Chicago Cubs 11/1
New York Yankees 11/1
New York Mets 22/1
St. Louis Cardinals 22/1
Arizona Diamondbacks 28/1
Toronto Blue Jays 28/1
Milwaukee Brewers 33/1
Seattle Mariners 33/1
Tampa Bay Rays 33/1
Colorado Rockies 40/1
San Francisco Giants 40/1
Atlanta Braves 50/1
Baltimore Orioles 50/1
Chicago White Sox 50/1
Los Angeles Angels 50/1
Kansas City Royals 50/1
Texas Rangers 50/1
Cincinnati Reds 66/1
Miami Marlins 66/1
Minnesota Twins 66/1
Oakland Athletics 66/1
Pittsburgh Pirates 66/1
Philadelphia Phillies 75/1
Detroit Tigers 100/1
San Diego Padres 100/1