O's 2022 rotation candidate: right-hander Jordan Lyles

It's an assumption - but probably a pretty safe assumption - that right-hander Jordan Lyles is not only a rotation candidate for the 2022 Orioles, but he is very likely to be a key member of their rotation.

This is why the club agreed with the free agent pitcher on a one-year deal for $7 million right before the lockout, and the Orioles hold a team option on his 2023 contract.

Lyles went 10-13 with a 5.15 ERA for Texas last season. And that produced an ERA+ of 85 for last year or 15 percent under league average. But among the seven Orioles to make 10 or more starts last season, a 5.15 ERA would have rated third-best behind John Means at 3.62 and Bruce Zimmermann at 5.04.

Yes, we know the 2021 O's starting staff did not set a high bar, but no doubt Lyles was brought here to provide not only some veteran leadership but to eat innings.

He pitched 180 innings last season to rank 18th most in the majors and that would have been sixth-most in the American League behind only Robbie Ray (193 1/3), José Berríos (192), Frankie Montas (187), Nathan Eovaldi (182 1/3) and Gerrit Cole (181 1/3). Then came Lyles and he was above all the rest.

And while the fact no AL pitcher threw 200 innings last year tells us quite a bit about how pitchers are used now, Lyles was still among the biggest of the workhorses by 2021 standards. And, yes, it has been pointed out that his innings total was a career high for him that might not be duplicated. But he also threw 141 innings in 2019. So an average of about 160 innings in the last two full seasons. Dylan Bundy led the 2019 Orioles with 161 2/3 innings and Means led in 2021 at 146 2/3. Lyles is a workhorse by recent O's standards.

Lyles did lead the majors in allowing 38 homers. He could be a pitcher who immediately benefits from the deeper outfield fence in left and left-center at Camden Yards.

Lyles produced a 15.5 percent homer-to-fly ball ratio in 2019, 15 percent in 2020 and 17.4 percent in 2021. Means allowed 30 homers to lead the Orioles last season and he had a 15 percent homer-to-fly ball ratio.

Lyles is more of a fly ball pitcher, so keeping the ball in the expanded ballpark will be big for him next season. Among the 15 Orioles that pitched 40 or more innings last year, eight had a better groundball rate than Lyles' 37.6 percent last year. And eight also had a better homer-to-fly ball ratio that he did in 2021.

One area where, by 2021 O's standards, Lyles excelled last year was producing quality starts. Even a bad team like the Orioles had a better than .500 record, even though just barely, at 16-15 in their 31 quality starts last year. If your starter can keep you in the game, you have a decent chance to win it.

Lyles threw 13 quality starts last summer (that was also a career best) and Texas went 8-5 in those games. Lyles went six innings or more in 18 of his 30 starts. The Orioles, as a staff, had 34 starts of six innings or more last season. So the Orioles produced a start of that length in 21 percent of their games, but Lyles did it in 60 percent of his games.

The Orioles could sure use some of that innings-eating in 2022, saving the bullpen when he can and also providing the Orioles more time to get seasoning for several hurlers on the farm.

Lyles pitched to a 4.86 ERA during the first half with 1.443 WHIP. In the second half, his ERA was 5.49 and his WHIP was 1.327. And while Lyles, 31, had a 7.60 ERA in August, he pitched some of his best baseball of the year in September, when went 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 0.989 WHIP. He posted quality starts in five starts for the month, going seven innings three times.

The Orioles signed Lyles to be a solid presence in their rotation and keep the team in games where, when he is throwing well, they can win a decent percentage of them.