O's game blog: Burnes faces Yankees in Game 3

After two pitching-led wins in this series against the Yankees, the Orioles (19-10) hope for more good work on the mound tonight when they send out ace right-hander Corbin Burnes (3-0, 2.55 ERA) for his seventh start.

The Orioles have posted 2-0 and 4-2 wins to take the first two games from the Yankees, moving from one game behind New York to one game ahead and leading the American League East.

In the games, O’s pitching has allowed two runs and 12 hits with the Yanks going 0-for-9 with runners in scoring position. The O’s bullpen, which had been scored upon in 13 of 16 games as this series began, has thrown 5 1/3 scoreless on three hits versus the Yankees.

And Baltimore pitching did this against a New York team that scored 15 runs Saturday and 15 more Sunday at Milwaukee.

With these two wins, the Orioles are now 8-0 in games decided by two runs.

Burnes has allowed two earned runs or less in five of his six starts, has three quality starts and one outing of seven innings or more. The Orioles are 5-1 in his games. In four home starts, he is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA and 1.059 WHIP.

Burnes, having pitched for the Brewers until his trade to the Orioles, has limited exposure to AL East teams. But in his only previous start versus the Yankees, he pitched eight no-hit no-run innings on 109 pitches on Sept. 10 at Yankee Stadium. That was one of four starts in which he tossed eight or more shutout innings last season, the most such starts in the major leagues in 2023.

In six career games versus AL East teams, he has stunning stats, going 3-0 with a 1.27 ERA. In those games, he has allowed just a .121 batting average and .396 OPS with 10 walks and 44 strikeouts over 42 2/3 innings.

For the Yankees, right-hander Luis Gil (1-1, 4.01 ERA) will make his sixth start. In the first five, he has thrown 24 2/3 innings allowing just 14 hits with 19 walks and 35 strikeouts. Yes, that is a high walk total for a walk rate of 6.9 with a 12.8 strikeout rate.

The Orioles rank 29^th in the majors in drawing walks. So how will all that play out tonight?

Gil has been tough to hit as lefty batters bat .167 with an OPS of .633 off him and right-handers bat .161/.595. While the Yankees are 3-2 in his starts, he has not gone past 5 2/3 innings in any of them.

Gil, however, does rank among the top six percent in baseball in off-speed run value and the top 12 percent in whiff rate. His fastball, which he throws 59 percent of the time, averages 96.5 mph with a 35.8 percent whiff rate. He gets a 41.2 percent whiff rate off his slider and opponents are batting just .087 against his changeup.

So a little-known pitcher with apparently some big stuff on tap for the O’s hitters this evening. 

Adley Rutschman has hit in a career-high 11 straight games since April 19 while slashing .388/.400/.592 (19-for-49) with one double, three homers, five runs scored, 11 RBIs and one walk. He's also hit in 16 of his last 17 games since April 11 while recording an AL-high 26 hits during that period.

Colton Cowser leads major league rookies in slugging percentage (.632), OPS (1.004), RBIs (18), extra-base hits (13) and total bases (48), while tying for the lead in home runs (6). Among AL rookies, he ranks among qualified players in batting average (second, .303), on-base percentage (second, .372), doubles (tied for second, 7) and hits (third, 23).

The O's begin play tonight leading the AL East by one game over the Yankees, 2 1/2 over the Red Sox, 5 1/2 over the Blue Jays and 6 1/2 over the Rays.