Orioles hoping to clinch in the Bronx

The Orioles have six games left on their regular season schedule. The Yankees lead the division by six games.

Even the people who choke when trying to crunch numbers can digest this one.

I’m saying there’s a chance, but the Orioles are more likely to earn the top wild card and host a best-of-three series with no travel in the first round.

The clinching formula, boiled down to its rawest form, says the Orioles are in if they win tonight and the Twins lose to the Marlins or the Royals lose to the Nationals. You’ll need to do more scoreboard watching.  

We can stop tracking the Mariners. The Twins are the “first team out” – currently seventh in a six-club field – and suddenly deserving of our attention.

The magic number is two but it holds as much value as Monopoly money. Or the “get out of jail free” card that I tried once at … never mind. The number was three over the weekend and the Orioles could have clinched. Let’s just set it aside.

In this crazy season of extreme parity, the Tigers have moved into a tie with the fading Royals for the second wild card. The Orioles played them six times in a span of 10 days, going 2-4, and could meet them in the playoffs. This is baseball’s hottest team, sellers at the deadline, and the Orioles wouldn’t be able to avoid Tarik Skubal again.

The Orioles haven’t won a playoff game since the 2014 Division Series against, you got it, the Tigers. Maybe they should invite Delmon Young to throw out the ceremonial first pitch.

(Does quick Google search, decides they should invite J.J. Hardy to score from first base.)

The Tigers started Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander and David Price and got swept. The Orioles advanced to the American League Championship Series against the Royals and got swept.

They lost to the Blue Jays in the one-game 2016 wild card in Toronto – Zack Britton warmed, Ubaldo Jiménez pitched, Edwin Encarnacion swung – and the Rangers swept them last year in the Division Series. That amounts to an eight-game losing streak.

Clinching in the Bronx wouldn’t be a first, as I mentioned on Sunday. They did it on Oct. 2, 2016 in the last game of the regular season. Kevin Gausman allowed two runs in 7 1/3 innings and Britton recorded the five-out save to make him 48-for-48. Matt Wieters homered from both sides of the plate.

I could give you 10 guesses on the leadoff hitter and you’d probably lose.

Answer here: Right fielder Michael Bourn.

Who pinch-ran for Hyun Soo Kim and played left field? You’re a true fan or in need of an intervention if you remember Drew Stubbs.

Lockers in the visiting clubhouse were covered in plastic and a Yankees attendant handed out bottles of champagne and opened beers. He must have drawn the short straw. We’ll find out if the scene is repeated within the next three days.

The Orioles are 6-4 against the Yankees this season, including 2-1 on the road. They lost the first game in the Bronx 4-2 and won the next two, 7-6 and 17-5. Batters were hit. The Yankees did most of the hitting and complaining. The Orioles refused to get lured into a war of words.

And then, Clay Holmes drilled Heston Kjerstad on the helmet with a 96.8 mph sinker in a July 12 game at Camden Yards and the benches and bullpen emptied. Manager Brandon Hyde went after the Yankees dugout, infuriated by some comments and gestures coming from the bench, and was the lone ejection.

“You're never trying to hit somebody in the head up high like that,” Holmes said afterward. “I hope Heston's OK from that. Definitely hope that he's all good tomorrow. I was trying to throw up a front-door sinker there and it just cut. The movement wasn't my normal sinker, and just kind of pulled it.

"I definitely wasn't trying to do anything and hurt him, hit him.”

The way Holmes is blowing saves this season, I tend to believe him.

Kjerstad went on the concussion injured list the following day, was 2-for-18 and optioned, and had it rescinded when the Orioles put him back on the IL. He’s on the active roster now and went 3-for-4 Saturday night.

The Yankees are starting two right-handers in the series – Clarke Schmidt and Gerrit Cole – along with lefty Nestor Cortes. Kjerstad could get two starts, but Ryan Mountcastle’s potential return to the active roster expands the lineup possibilities with extra options at designated hitter.

Mountcastle played in another rehab game Sunday at Triple-A Norfolk, which concluded its season. The Orioles didn’t announce any moves during the off-day.

A spot must be opened for Mountcastle, and that makes Eloy Jiménez vulnerable during his 1-for-24 September.