Orioles notes and thoughts on Eflin, Rutschman, position players, baserunning, Mateo and Bautista

SARASOTA, Fla. – The Orioles are playing a doubleheader today if you count Spring Breakout, which follows the Grapefruit League game against the Pirates.

The over-hyping makes me break out in a rash, but fans get a chance to see 21 of the top 30 prospects in the organization. Catcher Samuel Basallo leads the way, and outfielder Enrique Bradfield Jr. will try to build on his one-game hitting streak after last year’s bunt single in Bradenton.

I understand that one game doesn’t constitute a streak. Here are a few other things that we (think we) know:

* OK, this one is confirmed: Zach Eflin will be the Opening Day starter. I pegged him as the favorite when the Orioles arrived for spring training, and Grayson Rodriguez’s elbow inflammation cemented his chances.

Experience and track record gave Eflin an edge. Rodriguez has the higher ceiling but won’t reach it with a sore elbow. Check back next spring.

Four spots are known barring a late trade or signing. No. 5 is down to Albert Suárez or Cade Povich. The easiest move would be to plug in Povich, keep Suárez as the long reliever/swingman and name Bryan Baker as the replacement for Andrew Kittredge, who underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left knee. Otherwise, making Suárez a starter again probably sends Povich to Triple-A Norfolk so he can stay in a rotation and creates a need for a long man.

I’m not saying it won’t happen. It’s just an extra move.

* Adley Rutschman is cured.

Like a ham.

This one is assumed. Rutschman’s at-bats and his approach at the plate instill confidence in a huge bounce back from the second half in 2024. He’s lining the ball to all fields. The bat through the zone resembles the first half last year and the previous season.

Rutschman homered to left field last night from the left side of the plate. This is very bad news for the rest of the league.

The game looks fun for him again. He showed up that way, as if he knew what we were about to find out.

* One roster decision remains on the position side.

A healthy Gunnar Henderson, with sufficient at-bats after a long layoff, gives the Orioles their six infielders to pair with five outfielders and two catchers. The breakdown can be recited in our sleep:

Gunnar Henderson
Jordan Westburg
Ryan Mountcastle
Jackson Holliday
Ryan O’Hearn
Ramón Urías

Adley Rutschman
Gary Sánchez

Cedric Mullins
Colton Cowser
Tyler O’Neill
Heston Kjerstad
Ramón Laureano

Here's the rub: Henderson might not be ready for Opening Day. That’s where the decision comes in, whether he is and who gets the roster spot if Henderson needs more time.

Maybe that’s two decisions.

Livan Soto could have his contract selected if Henderson is on the injured list. He had a single and RBI double last night and is batting .387 with a .925 OPS. Luis Vázquez has played an outstanding shortstop.

* The Orioles will be more aggressive on the bases.

This is coming from the Orioles, and they wouldn’t make it up.

They want Jackson Holliday to bunt, steal, go first to third. They want Colton Cowser to become more of a threat after going 9-for-13 in attempts last season. Cedric Mullins always has the green light.

The idea is to force the action and put more pressure on the opposing pitcher and defense. Eleven different Orioles have stolen bases this spring, led by Holliday’s three.

They tied with the Athletics for 18^th in the majors last year with 98 swiped bags. The Nationals ranked first with 223. The Rays led the American League with 178.

Holliday led off the fourth last night by reaching on a bunt single. He broke for second base on Soto’s grounder and beat the throw on an attempted double play, with the Twins settling for the out at first.

That’s what we’re talking about here.

“It’s something he’s been working on a lot,” Hyde said of the bunt. “It needs to be a part of his game, and nice to see him get a successful one down.”

* Jorge Mateo won’t get his wish.

Mateo kept insisting that he could make the Opening Day roster. He exuded so much confidence that it became contagious.

I stayed immune to it. He doesn’t have an at-bat this spring and he didn’t have a spot unless Henderson went on the injured list. But the good news is that Mateo could be available to the Orioles in April if they need him.

* Félix Bautista’s hype video will play at Camden Yards as early as March 31.

Certainly by April.

I don’t see how Bautista stays off the Opening Day roster. He isn’t throwing his fastball in triple digits, but he topped out at 98 mph last night on the stadium radar gun, he threw a nasty splitter for a strikeout, and, this is the biggie, his arm feels great.

“Thought Félix was better this time,” Hyde said. “I think he got up to 98 tonight. Good to see him get a couple strikeouts. I think maybe pitching at home might have helped a little bit. He’s been on the road the last couple times, so kind of having a home routine. A little bit better this time.”

The Orioles are smart to be careful with Bautista early in the season and make the closer’s job a shared role. He's eventually going to own it. There's no rush.

They'll get a rush from watching him dominate hitters again as we move into the summer months.