Potential O's free agent target: Lefty pitcher Max Fried

If the Orioles lose right-hander Corbin Burnes via free agency, they could turn to free agency to find his replacement, or at least find someone that is in his class of pitchers.

They are not in abundance but there are a few available in this free agent class. A list that includes lefty Max Fried, who will be 31 next Opening Day.

A former first-round MLB Draft pick, Fried has never pitched for anyone save Atlanta. But if they didn’t sign him to an extension by now, there is an assumption that he will be pitching elsewhere in 2025.

MLBTradeRumors.com listed numerous clubs that could make a play for Fried, including the Orioles. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman said he will get looks from American League East clubs including the Orioles, Toronto and Boston, and that the Yankees have already “checked in” on him. So where are the Rays?

MLB Trade Rumors also listed the Mets, Giants, Red Sox, Padres (who originally drafted him), Cubs, Tigers, Angels and Dodgers as possible destinations for Fried. And the outlet noted that six-year deals for pitchers beginning at age 31 or later are rare, with only five in the past decade (Zach Greinke, Aaron Nola, Stephen Strasburg, Yu Darvish and Jon Lester).

There is so much to like about Fried, whose ERA+ of 151 since the 2020 season is first in the majors among pitchers with 500 innings or more.

He is a two-time All-Star, two-time top five Cy Young finisher, three-time Gold Glove winner and shows high groundball and low homer rates while pitching with solid walk rates. Fried is hard to square up.

This year in 29 starts for Atlanta, Fried went 11-10 with a 3.25 ERA over 174 1/3 innings. He recorded a 1.164 WHIP while allowing 0.7 homers and 2.9 walks per nine innings. He posted a strikeout rate of 8.6.

Fried was fifth in the National League Cy Young Award voting in 2020 and second in 2022. Since 2020, over 112 starts, he is 54-25 with a 2.81 ERA (producing that 151 ERA+ number) with a 1.093 WHIP and 0.7 homer rate. Just very strong stuff.

Fried is not a hard thrower, registering an average fastball velocity of 93.9 mph on his four-seamer and 93.6 for his two-seamer. He gets a 36.7 whiff rate with a .154 average against his curveball.

Fried ranked in the top four percent of the majors in 2024 with a 59.2 groundball rate when league average was 42.2. He was top five percent in average exit velocity, allowing a mark of 86.3 mph. He is not a big strikeout guy and was bottom 39 percent in whiff percentage. But he excels without big swing-and-miss.

Here is a stat that all teams will like: He is good against hitters through three times through the batting order. The OPS against Fried the first time through is .668, second time is .496 and the third time it is .656. On pitches 76 through 100 this year the batting average against was .230 and OPS against Fried was .617.

There are minor concerns about Fried’s 2023 forearm strain. He didn't undergo surgery but was limited to 14 starts. And he missed a few starts last season with an inflamed nerve in his left forearm.

But if these are red flags, they're minor ones, and Fried is predicted to cash in big time.

MLB Trade Rumors, which ranked him as the No. 6 free agent, projects a six-year deal for $156 million. ESPN has it as six years and $175 million, while FanGraphs.com goes five years and $140 million.

With Burnes projected to get maybe $100 million more than that, the O’s might be able to sign both Fried and Teoscar Hernández for that amount. Or Fried and Anthony Santander. Or Fried and another quality pitcher.

Willems to play in Fall Stars game: The Arizona Fall League's Fall Stars game is set for tonight at 8 p.m. ET on MLB Network. Catcher Creed Willems from the Orioles, playing in the AFL for Surprise, was named yesterday to the game. He is on the American League team. 

In 17 AFL games, Willems has hit .338/.388/.514/.902 with two homers and 11 RBIs. MLBPipeline.com ranks him as the club's No. 22 prospect.

Roberto Mercado, who managed for Double-A Bowie this season and is the manager for Surprise, will manage the AL squad tonight. Through Thursday, Mercado's Surprise squad is 16-8 and has the best record in the six-team AFL.