Potential O's free-agent target: Right-hander Nathan Eovaldi

As the search for starting pitching goes on throughout MLB, all teams, including the Orioles, might be taking note of free-agent right-hander Nathan Eovaldi.

The right-hander is a remarkably consistent pitcher in recent seasons, who at his age will not command a long-term deal or the major dollars of the top-tier pitchers.

Eovaldi is also known as a big-game pitcher who had an outstanding postseason run as his Texas Rangers won the 2023 World Series.

He will turn 35 on Feb. 13, but there is still a lot to like here about both his talent and expected price tag.

Since 2020, his ERA has been between 3.63 and 3.87 each year. For the Rangers, he pitched 144 innings during the 2023 season and then another 36 2/3 in six postseason starts. Last year he pitched 170 2/3 innings, going 12-8 with a 3.80 ERA for Texas. He allowed just 147 hits with a 1.107 WHIP, 2.2 walks per nine and 8.8 strikeouts.

The Rangers' Opening Day starter last season, he recorded 16 quality starts among 29 outings and tied for ninth in the American League in WHIP, was 10th in batting average against (.229), 13th in OPS (.668), 19th in the league in ERA and 25th in innings.

MLBTradeRumors.com projects he'll get a two-year deal for $44 million. That is a number that puts him in play for most of the teams in the majors.

In that 2023 postseason, Eovaldi went 5-0 with a 2.95 ERA over his six starts with 10 walks and 41 strikeouts in 36 2/3 innings with a 1.12 WHIP. He became the first pitcher in MLB history to win at least five starts in a single postseason, including the clincher in World Series Game 5 at Arizona. 

Is it a red flag to the team that his second-half ERA (4.81) was much higher than the first-half (2.97)? Maybe so, but he also was effective three times through the batting order allowing an OPS against of .694 the first time through, .658 the second and .652 the third. On pitches 76 through 100 last year, he gave up a .628 OPS. He got deep in games and was good often when he got there. 

Eovaldi can still bring some heat, throwing 95.4 mph in 2024. And he ranked in the top 10 percent of major league pitchers in offspeed run value, a Statcast metric. He scored very well in chase percentage and with his 48.9 groundball rate.

With numbers like that, he would seem to command a lot of interest this winter. Is his best play just waiting until the top-tier pitchers sign to see who is left to fight over him, or wrap it up sooner if he gets the number he wants?




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