Predicting this week's BBWAA award winners

The Baseball Writers' Association of America announces its awards for the 2014 season this week, starting with the top rookies and finishing with the Most Valuable Players. Some races are obvious. Others are up for debate. Ballots were due the final day of the season, so October doesn't count. That's good news for the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw, not so much for Madison Bumgarner, the Giants' World Series hero. Here's the scouting report on each of the ballots: Ballot with the most No. 1 candidates - National League MVP: This is the vote that will bring the most second-guessing and criticism. The question is whether Kershaw (21-3, 1.77 ERA) will - or should - join the rare group of pitchers to win an MVP. Bob Gibson was the last NL pitcher to win an MVP in 1968, the year 31-game winner Denny McLain of Detroit won in the AL. Justin Verlander (2011) and closer Dennis Eckersley (1992) were the last two AL pitchers to win the award. The Dodgers wouldn't have been in the postseason without Kershaw, but the same could be said for Pittsburgh and outfielder Andrew McCutchen, who hit .314 with a .410 on-base percentage, 25 home runs and 18 stolen bases. And who knows if Miami would have stayed in contention into the final days had the Marlins not lost their best hitter, Giancarlo Stanton, who was hit in the face with a pitch on Sept. 11? Stanton hit .288 with 37 home runs and 105 RBIs. The Nationals have a list of players who should be on ballots in Anthony Rendon, Denard Span, Ian Desmond and Jayson Werth. Prediction: McCutchen. The apples-and-oranges ballot - NL Rookie of the Year: Voters had to compare New York Mets pitcher Jacob deGrom, who had a 2.69 ERA with 144 strikeouts in 22 starts, and Cincinnati outfielder Billy Hamilton, who had 56 steals but only a .292 on-base percentage. Prediction: deGrom. Best chance for an Orioles win - AL Manager of the Year: The case for Orioles manager Buck Showalter is strong because the Orioles and their 96 wins ran away with the AL East, despite not having injured stars Manny Machado and Matt Wieters, as well as the suspended Chris Davis. But the other finalists have strong cases, too. The Angels' Mike Scioscia won a league-leading 98 games, despite a weak bullpen for the first two months and a shaky rotation after ace Jered Weaver. Kansas City's Ned Yost brought the Royals into October for the first time since 1985, and that made an impression. Prediction: Showalter. Best chance for a Nationals win - NL Manager of the Year: Matt Williams and the Nationals won the NL East by 17 games with the league's best rotation and most versatile offense, and that could be a red flag: Voters could say that Williams should have won because he had the best team. But Williams also had to work around injuries to Bryce Harper, Ryan Zimmerman and Doug Fister, and had to deal with slumping closer Rafael Soriano. San Francisco's Bruce Bochy led the Giants into October despite injuries to the rotation and key players in the lineup while shuffling the bullpen. Clint Hurdle had the Pirates winning even though they had their usual run-scoring struggles. Prediction: Williams. The upset ballot - AL MVP: After finishing second in two previous seasons, the Los Angeles Angels' Mike Trout is the expected winner after hitting .287 with 36 home runs and a league-leading 111 RBIs. Trout has the defense component in his favor, but he also led the AL with 184 strikeouts. It is difficult to overlook Detroit's Victor Martinez's awesome numbers, and if there is going to be a surprise, this could be it. Martinez, a DH, led the AL with a .409 on-base percentage while hitting .341, second to Houston's Jose Altuve. Martinez hit 32 home runs and struck out 42 times. The Orioles' Adam Jones should be in the top five after his .281-29-96 season. Prediction: Trout. Ballot with the freshest favorite - AL Cy Young Award: Seattle's Felix Hernandez is a yearly candidate for the award, and Chicago White Sox lefty Chris Sale has been mentioned in previous votes. But Cleveland's Cory Kluber might win the award in his second full season. Kluber was 18-9 with a 2.44 ERA and 269 strikeouts, two behind league-leading David Price of Detroit. Hernandez led the AL with a 2.14 ERA and pitched 236 innings. Sale was 12-4 with a 2.17 ERA, but threw only 174 innings. Prediction: Kluber. Obvious ballot, Part I - NL Cy Young Award: Kershaw's 1.77 ERA shows his dominance in the regular season, but the 21-game winner wasn't the same pitcher in the postseason. Who knows why? This could be a unanimous vote for Kershaw, even though he missed the first six weeks of the season with a back injury. Two other 20-game winners were impressive: Cincinnati's Johnny Cueto had a 2.25 ERA and St. Louis' Adam Wainwright was at 2.38. Kershaw has had the lowest ERA in the National League for four consecutive seasons. Prediction: Kershaw will win his third Cy Young. Obvious ballot, Part II - AL Rookie of the Year: It's hard to argue with the 36 home runs and 107 RBIs Jose Abreu put up while playing 145 games for the Chicago White Sox. The surprise name among the finalists is Angels pitcher Matt Shoemaker, who came out of nowhere to go 16-4 with a 3.04 ERA. Prediction: Shoemaker had intangibles of helping a winner, but Abreu could be unanimous. For the record: Nine of the AL's top 14 rookies since 2000 have gone on to play in All-Star Games, including Boston's Dustin Pedroia, Tampa Bay's Evan Longoria and Trout. In the NL, 13 of the last 14 rookie winners have played in All-Star Games, including the Nationals' Bryce Harper, the 2012 winner. Other points of Rookie of the Year trivia: * Eric Hinske, the AL's 2002 winner from Toronto, never played in an All-Star Game, but he went to the World Series with three different teams - the Red Sox, Rays and Yankees - winning rings with Boston and New York. * Detroit pitcher Justin Verlander, the 2006 AL winner, is an All-Star with a rare slice of historic accomplishment: Verlander and Don Newcombe of the Brooklyn Dodgers are the only pitchers to have won the Rookie of Year, MVP and Cy Young Awards. * Since 2000, the Marlins, Rays and Athletics - teams known for their tight budgets and scouting ability - have each won the award three times. * The Orioles have had six players win the award: Ron Hansen, Curt Blefary, Al Bumbry, Hall of Famers Eddie Murray and Cal Ripken Jr., and Gregg Olson.