Ryan Romano: O'Day defying odds with success in crunch time

Darren O'Day has always defied expectations. He went from a walk-on at the University of
Florida to the team's closer. After going undrafted out of college, he signed with the Angels,
then shot through the minors and got a regular role with the Mets and Rangers. And when
Texas let him walk following an ugly 2011 campaign, he signed with the Orioles and took off
once more.

O'Day's profile certainly fits the underdog mold; he's excelled despite an
underwhelming arsenal and a cringe-inducing (yet, somehow, not injury-inflicting) delivery. But
the most impressive thing about O'Day, the characteristic that best represents his ability to spit
in the face of people's assumptions, may be his play in the clutch.

Most of the time, a runner reaching base gives the offense an advantage. This season, hitters
have a .247/.311/.406 triple-slash with no one on, and a .251/.331/.412 triple-slash with men on
base. In other words, the average pitcher does worse under pressure. For O'Day, however, the
exact opposite has been the case. Since his debut in 2008, he's allowed a .213/.268/.355
batting line before opponents reach base; that has improved to .196/.284/.300 after they've
gotten on. Make no mistake, O'Day is a great pitcher with the bases empty -- but he's one of
the best in the game with runners on.

So how does he do it? What's O'Day's elixir for clutchiness? He doesn't overpower his
adversaries -- he has a 25.1 percent strikeout rate without runners on, and a 23.6 percent
strikeout rate with them. Likewise, his walk rate jumps from 5.1 to 8.1 percent after someone
has reached. No, he puts out the flames by inducing a ton of weak contact. Once he's let
someone on base, O'Day's batting average on balls in play drops from .260 to .247, and his
home run rate plummets from 3.0 to 1.7 percent. He gets more grounders (42.1 percent with
runners on; 38.2 percent with the bases empty) and more popups (5.8 percent; 4.8 percent). His
rate of soft contact climbs from 19.6 to 24.8 percent. O'Day kills hitters softly, and via Brooks
Baseball and Baseball Savant, we can get a better idea of how he does it.

Regardless of the situation, O'Day's arsenal comprises three pitches: a sinker, a four-seam
fastball, and a slider. The former clearly lags behind the other two, as batters have knocked it
around for a .291 average and .449 slugging percentage. Thus, O'Day moves away from the
sinker with runners on base, decreasing its usage from 37.3 to 34.7 percent. He makes up the
difference with a few extra four-seamers and a sizable dollop of sliders. This change, while
small, makes a big difference -- both the four-seamer and the slider have sub-.200 batting
averages against, and each possesses a slugging percentage at least 100 points better than the
sinker. By prioritizing the pitches that opponents have the most difficulty hitting, O'Day has
found success under pressure.

The shift doesn't stop there, either. O'Day also raises his pitch location with baserunners behind
him. 30.6 percent of his bases-empty pitches have gone to the upper parts of the strike zone
(defined as areas 1, 2, 3, 11, and 12); with runners on, that figure spikes to 34.9 percent. Hitters
tend to make worse contact against high pitches, and coming from O'Day's low arm slot,
offerings up in the zone are even harder to catch up with. The combination of better pitches and
higher location makes O'Day a nightmare once runners have reached base.

During Sunday's rubber match in Cleveland, the Tribe put runners on second and third with no
outs against Brad Brach. That's when Buck Showalter turned to his $31 million man, who knew
what he had to do. O'Day threw only two sinkers out of 15 pitches, and he stayed much higher
in the zone than in prior games. That recipe allowed him to sandwich a weak groundout and a
couple of strikeouts around an intentional walk; when the inning ended, the Orioles still had the
lead. Baltimore's ace reliever lived up to his billing, as he's done throughout his tenure with the
Birds. No amount of expectations can faze O'Day, whether they concern velocity or clutch play.

Ryan Romano blogs about the Orioles for Camden Depot. Follow the blog on Twitter: @CamdenDepot. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.