Ryan Romano: Tyler Wilson needs to improve his fastballs or changeup

Tyler Wilson has one great pitch, but the rest need work

The Orioles direly need starting pitchers. Both Ubaldo Jimenez and Mike Wright have struggled as of late, and Yovani Gallardo's first start post-disabled list didn't inspire much confidence. Their play has inflated the rotation's ERA to 4.94, the fourth-highest in baseball. Amid this uncertainty, Wilson has done well enough, notching a 4.16 ERA and 4.17 FIP in 63 innings. That's happened on the back of one pitch in particular; his other three pitches must improve for him to take the next step.

Like many starting pitchers, Wilson has (for the most part) a four-pitch arsenal: He pairs two hard offerings -- a four-seam and two-seam fastball -- with a changeup and a curveball. The latter has excelled in 2016, becoming one of the most valuable such pitches in all of baseball. Wilson's curveball has been worth 7.0 runs above average this season, according to FanGraphs.com's Pitch Type Linear Weights; only three other hurlers have surpassed that. On a per-100 pitch basis, the curve's 2.71 runs above average are better than the likes of Jake Arrieta (2.61) and Clayton Kershaw (2.12), each of whom has earned recognition for the pitch.

Wilson's curveball has garnered a swing-and-miss 10.5 percent of the time in 2016, along with a satisfactory strike rate of 62 percent. Wilson has never survived on whiffs, though; he's feasted on, and will probably always feast on, weak contact. His curveball has helped him immensely in that pursuit: This season, hitters have a .083/.125/.167 batting line in 64 plate appearances ending with the pitch. The pitch's unconventional movement has made it tough for opponents to square up -- Wilson's curve has much more run and much less drop than an average curveball -- and its average location, in the lower part of the zone yet above the dirt, compounds that.

Sadly, the curve hasn't received much assistance from its colleagues. Wilson's four-seam fastball has cost him 2.5 runs this year, an average of -0.57 runs over 100 appearances. The two-seamer has been even worse, with its 2.2 runs below average equating to -1.31 runs/100. And the changeup has lagged behind, too: It's been worth -0.9 runs in 2016, or -0.73 runs/100. To remain respectable, Wilson has leaned on his curveball; to become noteworthy, he'll need to make progress on his other three pitches.

The four-seam fastball presents the biggest obstacle. Not only does it lack whiffs (at 4.3 percent), batters have absolutely crushed it. Across 137 plate appearances, they've posted a .302/.338/.500 slash line, with five of Wilson's seven home runs coming on the pitch. The heater's subpar velocity and flat delivery put it at a disadvantage, and Wilson has made matters worse by grooving it alarmingly often. Unless he can tweak its movement or better its command, the four-seamer will never become anything more than an average offering.

Wilson's other two pitches have more potential. While its .279/.326/.465 line this year may not show it, the two-seamer has a lot more horizontal break than an average pitch of its type, which has helped it to an above-average 5.6 percent swinging-strike rate. (In my judgment, I used the whiff rate benchmarks established by RotoGraphs' Jeff Zimmerman and Eno Sarris.) The changeup has a more mediocre whiff rate of 5.7 percent, as well as a strike rate of just 54.5 percent. Wilson has largely failed to command the pitch, throwing it all over the place. On the other hand, opponents haven't made good wood on the changeup -- they've hit just .233/.233/.367 against it -- so maybe he's been more effectively wild. These certainly have less ground to make up than the four-seamer, and realistically they could improve from here.

Wilson doesn't have ace stuff; he probably won't become a No. 1 starter, and on a club whose offense pounds opponents into submission, he probably doesn't need to be. The accomplishments of his curveball have proven his potential, which he can certainly build upon from here. He can't succeed with one offering, though, so his four-seamer, two-seamer and/or changeup will have to move forward. If Wright, Jimenez and Gallardo continue to regress, he'll need to accomplish that sooner rather than later.

Ryan Romano blogs about the Orioles for Camden Depot. Follow the blog on Twitter: @CamdenDepot. His thoughts on the O's appear here as part of MASNsports.com's continuing commitment to welcome guest bloggers to our little corner of cyberspace. All opinions expressed are those of the guest bloggers, who are not employed by MASNsports.com but are just as passionate about their baseball as our roster of writers.