The Orioles offense: Productive with homers, but don't expect a high OBP

When it comes to the Orioles offense, we pretty much know what we are going to get. They are going to score enough runs to win enough games to make the playoffs and they are going to do it with the longball and not as an offense that features variety. Despite some fans' constant calls for better on-base percentage and more working the count, the Orioles - as individual players for the most part and as a team for sure - just don't excel in that area and that is not likely to change much. The O's offense the last three years: * 2012 - 712 runs with a .311 OBP and 214 homers * 2013 - 745 runs with a .313 OBP and 212 homers * 2014 - 705 runs with a .311 OBP and 211 homers Can you guess how many runs they will score and what those other numbers will look like in 2015? Despite what some readers here have said, the Orioles are not the worst team in baseball history in OBP. They ranked 11th in the American League at .311 this year, under the AL average of .316. They don't have the best team OBP, but they don't have the worst, either. But for those that are fans of that stat, it is true that the five highest-scoring AL teams in 2014 also ranked in the top five in OBP. The O's were sixth in runs, but 11th in OBP - the only AL team to score 700 runs or more last year and not rank in the top five in OBP. Furthermore, when you look at the career on-base percentage numbers for players likely to start for the O's next year, you see a similar picture to the last few years. Here are players who could be starting next season and their career OBPs: * Catcher Matt Wieters, .320 * First baseman Chris Davis, .322 * Second baseman Jonathan Schoop, .246 * Shortstop J.J. Hardy, .312 * Third baseman Manny Machado, .313 * Left fielder Alejandro De Aza, .330 * Center fielder Adam Jones, .320 * Right fielder Nick Markakis, .358 Yes, I included Markakis and De Aza, who are not yet signed for 2015, and did not include Nelson Cruz, who has a career .328 OBP. Note that only three players on this list have a career number better than the much-maligned Jones, who is far from the only Oriole not to excel in OBP. Steve Pearce provides some help - maybe more than you would think - in the on-base department. In 138 plate appearances in 2013, Pearce hit .261 with a .362 OBP. In 383 plate appearances last season, he hit .293 with a .373 OBP. Pearce figures to get a lot of at-bats next season. The opinion gets expressed that the Orioles need to change their hitting approach. But when you have veteran hitters with several years in the league, how much can we expect those players to change and/or improve? Very little, most likely. The Orioles are an aggressive team at the plate, which works well at times and not so well at other times. The Orioles swung at the first pitch 28.1 percent of the time last season to rank tied for fourth in the AL. They were 11th in the league in seeing 3.8 pitches per plate appearance. To get significant change in team on-base percentage, the Orioles would probably need to add two or more starters to upgrade over what they have now. But would that include a tradeoff in power and/or defense? All of that has to be considered. The 2015 Orioles will likely again be a team that can exceed 700 runs and rank among the top five or six offenses in the league. They will probably get there in a fashion similar to what we have seen over the last three seasons.