Tillman vs. Liriano tonight in Toronto

As Evan Roberts of WFAN pointed out this morning, we could have a five-way tie for the second wild card if the Yankees finish 5-0, the Orioles 1-4, the Tigers 2-3, the Mariners 3-2 and the Astros 3-1.

Please don't let this happen. I can't book that many hotels.

I cancelled my Boston reservation for the wild card game, confident that the Red Sox are winning the division. Their magic number remains at one.

Manager Buck Showalter dislikes the phrase "must-win," but tonight's game seems to qualify for it. The Orioles lost last night with Kevin Gausman on the mound. They need a different outcome with Chris Tillman, who's making his fourth start since coming off the disabled list.

The Jays are two games ahead of the Orioles for the top wild card. The Tigers are one game back for the second wild card. There's no downplaying the importance of tonight's matchup.

Tillman has allowed six runs and nine hits in his last two outings over 7 1/3 innings. Most recently, he lasted a season-low 1 2/3 innings against the Red Sox and surrendered three runs and five hits with three walks. His ERA has risen to 3.84, the highest since it was 4.42 on April 21.

Tillman has made three starts against the Blue Jays this season and allowed eight runs in 16 2/3 innings. He gave up two runs and struck out six batters over 5 2/3 innings in his only start at Rogers Centre.

The Jays have been a relentless tormentor to Tillman, who's 5-10 with a 5.61 ERA against them in 23 career starts. He's 2-6 with a 7.51 ERA and 1.636 WHIP in 12 starts at Rogers Centre covering 62 1/3 innings.

Edwin Encarnacion is 17-for-56 with three doubles and three home runs against Tillman. Jose Bautista is 12-for-44 with four doubles, three home runs and 12 strikeouts,

Ryan Goins is 9-for-25 with a home run, Kevin Pillar is 8-for-22 with a double and three home runs, Russell Martin is 6-for-12 with three doubles, Troy Tulowitzki is 3-for-9 with three home runs, Devon Travis is 3-for-8 with two doubles, a home run and seven RBIs, and Dalton Pompey is 4-for-7 with a double, two triples and a home run.

Left-hander Francisco Liriano is 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA in nine games (seven starts) with the Blue Jays. He's allowed four earned runs (six total) and 11 hits in 18 1/3 innings this month.

Liriano is 2-4 with a 5.01 ERA and 1.621 WHIP in eight career starts against the Orioles over 41 1/3 innings. Adam Jones is 6-for-18 with a double and three home runs, Mark Trumbo is 4-for-18 with a double, two home runs and seven strikeouts, and Chris Davis is 2-for-3 with a home run.

With a left-hander on the mound, Showalter could put Nolan Reimold in left field and Drew Stubbs in right and use Trumbo as the designated hitter. Hyun Soo Kim would stay on the bench despite leading the team in average and on-base percentage.

Reimold has accumulated only 11 at-bats this month. He hasn't played since going 0-for-2 on Sept. 20 and has made only two starts since Sept. 13, when he was 2-for-3 with a home run. However, he's 4-for-6 against Liriano and the Orioles need any edge they can find.

Stubbs is 3-for-21 with 11 strikeouts since the Orioles claimed him off waivers from the Rangers on Aug. 31. His defense is valuable, but an offense that's scored three runs or fewer in nine of the last 10 games may not be able to afford one dimension.

Jonathan Schoop is 0-for-20 in his last five games and is batting .149/.165/.277 this month, going 14-for-94 with one walk and 25 strikeouts in 24 games, but it's doubtful that he'll sit tonight against a left-hander.

Note: Baseball America's Top 20 Prospects list for the New York-Penn League includes first round draft pick Cody Sedlock, who posted a 3.00 ERA and held opponents to a .158 average in nine starts at short-season Single-A Aberdeen. He walked 13 batters in 27 innings, but his stuff impressed scouts.

Also on the list is left-hander Keegan Akin, the second-rounder this year who posted a 1.04 ERA and held opponents to a .161 average in nine starts. He walked seven batters and struck out 29 in 26 innings.

Baseball America also chose outfielder Austin Hays, the third-rounder who batted .336/.386/.514 with nine doubles, two triples, four home runs and 21 RBIs in 140 at-bats, and left-hander Alex Wells, a native of Australia who went 4-5 with a 2.15 ERA in 13 starts.

Wells walked nine batters and struck out 50 in 63 innings, and he ranked first in the league with a 0.91 WHIP.