Tommy John comebacks could be deciding factor in NL East

Last year, the baseball season was defined by a record number of pitchers sidelined with Tommy John surgery, a procedure that requires ligament replacement in the elbow. This season, star pitchers who missed 2014 will be returning, and the National League East could be in for a big change as far as the teams that will challenge the Nationals. The Nationals won the division by 17 games last season, but the Atlanta Braves - usually their biggest challenger - are short on pitching thanks in part to the elbow injuries, and are rebuilding their team for two years down the road. But there are two teams that could keep the Nationals from winning their second consecutive division title. With Matt Harvey, a 2013 All-Star returning to the rotation, the New York Mets think they'll contend. The same is true for the Miami Marlins, who will get their best pitcher, Jose Fernandez, back as early as June in a rotation that has become deep over the offseason. Teams with injured starters are already discussing how to shorten their workload this season, a la the 2012 Nationals, who sidelined pitcher Stephen Strasburg for September in his first year back from Tommy John even though they were heading to the postseason. The Strasburg debate almost never ended. The Mets are having that same discussion now. Harvey is gearing up for opening day, but Mets manager Terry Collins says the team hasn't decided how they are going to use Harvey. They could give him a few weeks off during the middle of the season or they could shut him down in September. Mets general manager Sandy Alderson said the team would meet with Harvey, his agent and Collins to make a determination on what's the best route to take. "We are going to be watching him closely," Collins said. Collins says it's going to be a battle between Harvey's bulldog mentality and Mets management looking out for the long-term future of the team. When we last saw Harvey, he was electrifying Citi Field with dominating stuff that earned him a spot on the NL All-Star team. He threw 178 1/3 innings with 191 strikeouts, a 2.27 ERA and a 9-5 record. Harvey, 25, will not face batters until mid-February and he won't throw his slider until the end of spring training. The Mets figure putting Harvey back into a rotation that already has Jacob deGrom (9-6, 2.69 ERA as a rookie in 2014) and Zack Wheeler (11-11, 3.54 ERA) is going to make them better. They added Michael Cuddyer (.332 average for Colorado last season) to their outfield and think that bounceback seasons from David Wright (.269-8-63) and Curtis Granderson (.227-20-66) will be enough to build on their 79 wins from 2014. After a 77-win season in 2014, the Marlins have the same idea. Fernandez, 22, was the NL Rookie of the Year in 2013 and had a strong enough season to be considered for the Cy Young Award. Fernandez had 187 strikeouts in 172 2/3 innings and a 2.19 ERA, stats that made him an All-Star. Fernandez joins a rotation that has newly acquired Mat Latos from Cincinnati as well as Henderson Alvarez and Jarred Cosart in the top three slots. Ex-National Dan Haren could also win a spot, if the Marlins don't accommodate his request for a trade to a West Coast team that conducts spring training in Arizona. Throw in the possibility of signing James Shields, a bullpen of power arms, a talented nucleus and the signing of Giancarlo Stanton, and there's hope in Miami. But Marlins manager Mike Redmond isn't going to rush Fernandez - even though expectations are high. "He's making good progress, but that's the last thing we want is rush him for the sake of a few more starts," Redmond said. "He means so much to the organization." Generally, Tommy John surgery - which includes taking a ligament from a cadaver and relocating it in the pitcher's ailing elbow - has an 80 percent success rate. The surgery is common. A Major League Baseball survey showed that 25 percent of major league pitchers have had the surgery while 15 percent of minor league pitchers have undergone the procedure. Every right-hander in the Tigers bullpen last season, including closer Joe Nathan, has come back from the surgery. So have St. Louis' Adam Wainwright and the Nationals' Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann. In fact, on the final day of last season, Zimmermann became the fifth pitcher to throw a no-hitter after having the surgery. Last season, the number of elbow surgeries reached epidemic proportions, despite a tight focus on innings limits, pitch counts and biomechanics. Historically, 15 to 20 pitchers a year have undergone the surgery, but in the last three years, the number has increased to 25 to 30 a year, Major League Baseball says. And other pitchers across the leagues are hoping for a comeback from Tommy John this spring. Oakland is hoping Jarrod Parker and A.J. Griffin can heal. Arizona is watching Patrick Corbin, the Yankees are keeping tabs on Ivan Nova and Tampa Bay is monitoring Matt Moore. Some position players, such as Orioles catcher Matt Wieters, are coming back from the injury. The Orioles aren't sure if Wieters, rehabilitating in Atlanta, will be ready at the start of the season, although that's their goal. The surgery's 80 percent success rate is high, but MLB doesn't want its pitchers to think it is foolproof. Experts have told MLB that the rise in Tommy John surgeries goes back to youth programs where inexperienced coaches are having kids throwing too hard and too many pitches. That's why MLB, led by Hall of Fame manager and executive Joe Torre, has put together this winter a set of guidelines on pitch counts and rest suggestions for young pitchers. They can be found at pitchsmart.org, along with information about training and injuries. Colorado manager Walt Weiss sees a culture change in youth baseball that's leading up to the big league injuries. He said that when he was a kid, he threw to his brother or friends in his neighborhood, but it wasn't an intense game. These days, young pitchers are throwing hard and competing in tournaments, sometimes pitching for two teams in one season, Weiss says. That puts wear and tear on the arm. "Throwing that hard with that intensity that early in life isn't good for a young arm," Weiss says. "The damage is already done when the pitchers get into professional ball." Sounds like the future of rotations in baseball could benefit from culture change in youth baseball.