Two O's go from down the board on draft day to award finalists

All big league teams strive to hit on players later in the First-Year Player Draft. There is always pressure on first-round picks, and they get the most bonus money and the most attention from media and fans.

But you need more than the highest drafted players to come through for long-term big league success. In that regard, 2017 wasn't bad for the Orioles as a 2016 third-round pick, outfielder Austin Hays, was a finalist for Baseball America's minor league Player of the Year. And a 2013 eighth-round pick, Trey Mancini, finished third in voting for American League Rookie of the Year.

There were 90 players taken ahead of Hays in that draft and 248 ahead of Mancini. Many teams passed on each player multiple times.

The draft can be a unique and inexact event. Outfielder DJ Stewart was the 25th overall selection in the draft one year ahead of Hays. And while Stewart had a very strong year in 2017, Hays has a more complete package of "tools," as scouts call them. He is the more well-rounded player with plus tools on offense, speed and defense. So how was one player taken No. 91 and one No. 25?

Late in the year, when I interviewed some national prospect analysts about the 2017 O's prospects, several expressed surprise looking back that Hays was not drafted until the third round. Not that that was exactly a low pick, but they saw a first-round caliber talent.

Heading into that 2016 draft, Hays was No. 47 on the Baseball America board of the top 500 draft prospects. Perhaps playing at a bigger school in Florida State was significant for Stewart. Hays played at Jacksonville.

The Orioles were quite high on Hays heading into that draft and had him rated around 60-65 on their board. But as much as they liked Hays, the Orioles seemed very focused on pitching and took three college pitchers ahead him in 2016, selecting Cody Sedlock No. 27, Keegan Akin No. 54 and Matthias Dietz No. 69.

"We liked him with either of our second-round picks but were targeting available pitching with hopes he would fly under the radar a bit," Orioles scouting director Gary Rajsich said in a late-season interview this year.

"But we were thrilled to get him at 91. Some of our scouts thought he was the best player in Florida and they were right. We had feedback from other teams that they loved Hays but could not get their people to bite. There can be a thousand reasons why guys fall like Hays did. But some crosscheckers told our guys they had him in the first round."

Meanwhile in looking back at the draft, Hays told me he was not unhappy at all to be a third-round selection.

"People always ask me, 'Were you disappointed?' Disappointed? I went top 100," he said. "There was no disappointment at all. I went to a junior college and then a mid-major school. I never would have thought it was possible to be top 100 out of a mid-major school."

Yes, Hays was indeed top 100, but he sure seems to have skills worthy of being a first-round pick. But he wasn't. The Orioles were delighted to get him and he was their minor league Player of the Year this season, winning the Brooks Robinson Award.

Hays led all minor league players in total bases (310) and ranked second in home runs (32) and extra-base hits (69). He hit .411 against left-handers on the farm. His combined numbers between Single-A Frederick and Double-A Bowie were .329/.365/.593 with 32 doubles, five triples, 32 homers, 81 runs and 95 RBIs. When prospects analysts release new top 100 lists this winter, Hays is going to be ranked pretty highly. Some think top 25.

Called up to Baltimore from the Baysox on Sept. 5, Hays went 0-for-7 to start with the Orioles. He had his first two hits Sept. 16 at New York, including his first major league homer in the ninth. He went 9-for-24 during a six-game stretch. But he was also 2-for-22 over his last six games to finish with a .217 average in 20 games.

Mancini is entrenched in the Orioles lineup for now and Hays is trying to join him. Some players moved ahead of him in the draft, but he was the first player from that draft class to make the majors. Now we find out if he is going to stay there. Are the Orioles ready to turn over right field to the player that got bypassed 90 times in the draft?